2019 Murcian regional election

The 2019 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

2019 Murcian regional election

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All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,057,978 3.0%
Turnout	659,437 (62.3%) 1.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Diego Conesa Fernando López Miras Isabel Franco Party PSOE PP Cs Leader since 30 September 2017 3 May 2017 9 March 2019 Last election 13 seats, 23.9% 22 seats, 37.4% 4 seats, 12.6% Seats won 17 16 6 Seat change 4 6 2 Popular vote 212,600 211,849 78,483 Percentage 32.5% 32.4% 12.0% Swing 8.6 pp 5.0 pp 0.6 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Pascual Salvador Óscar Urralburu Party Vox Podemos–Equo Leader since 21 April 2019 14 February 2015 Last election 0 seats, 0.8% 6 seats, 13.2% Seats won 4 2 Seat change 4 4 Popular vote 61,998 36,486 Percentage 9.5% 5.6% Swing 8.7 pp 7.6 pp
President before election Fernando López Miras PP Elected President Fernando López Miras PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[2]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.^[a][3]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 26 May 2019.^[1][3][4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.^[1]

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 11 June.^[5]

Background

In the aftermath of the 2015 election, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) signed a confidence and supply agreement which allowed Pedro Antonio Sánchez to be elected as new Murcian president.^[6][7] As part of the PP–Cs agreement, one of the newly elected Assembly's first initiatives was to increase the proportionality of the regional electoral system by scrapping the sub-provincial constituencies and lowering the required threshold from 5% to 3%.^[8]

A political crisis unveiled in the community after Pedro Antonio Sánchez was accused of several corruption offences on 20 February 2017. The scandal involved an ongoing judicial investigation on alleged irregularities in the process of awarding, construction and reception of an auditorium in Puerto Lumbreras, town from which Sánchez had been mayor between 2003 and 2013.^[9] While Sánchez had repeatedly assured he would resign right away if he was ever judicially charged for any crimes,^[10][11] he refused to do so after learning of his indictment despite Cs calls.^[12][13] Subsequently, Cs withdrew its parliamentary support, leaving the PP in minority, while threatening to support a censure motion on Sánchez promoted by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Podemos.^[14][15] The PP accused Cs of breaking their agreement and of "playing with fire",^[16] with parties hinting at the possibility that a snap election could be eventually called by Sánchez in order to prevent his removal.^[17][18]

On 8 March, Cs gave Pedro Antonio Sánchez an ultimatum, demanding him to either tender his resignation or call a snap election before 27 March. Otherwise, Cs would support the PSOE censure motion to bring him down.^[19] On 3 April, the President of Murcia was accused by judge Eloy Velasco—from the National Audience—of participating in the case known as Trama Púnica (in Spanish), which led to his resignation as regional president on the following day and the withdrawal of the scheduled censure motion presented by the PSOE.^[20][21] During his farewell speech, Pedro Antonio Sánchez proposed Fernando López Miras as his successor.^[22]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.^[23]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	22	22
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	13	13
	We Can Parliamentary Group		Podemos	6	6
	Citizens Parliamentary Group		Cs	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Fernando López Miras	Conservatism Christian democracy	37.4%	22		[24] [25]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Diego Conesa	Social democracy	23.9%	13		[26]
	Podemos– Equo	List We Can (Podemos) Equo (Equo)		Óscar Urralburu	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	13.2%	6		[27]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Isabel Franco	Liberalism	12.6%	4		[28]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Pascual Salvador	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	0.8%	0		[29]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	62.3	32.4 16	32.5 17	5.6 2	12.0 6	2.0 0	9.5 4	0.9 0	–	2.0 0	0.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1]	22–23 May 2019	?	?	28.1 14	27.7 14	9.2 4	17.5 8	2.7 0	9.9 5	–	–	1.3 0	0.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2]	21–22 May 2019	?	?	28.6 14	27.7 14	8.9 4	16.8 8	2.7 0	9.7 5	–	–	1.3 0	0.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3]	20–21 May 2019	?	?	28.5 14	27.6 14	8.9 4	16.8 8	2.8 0	10.1 5	–	–	1.4 0	0.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4]	19–20 May 2019	?	?	28.4 14	27.4 14	8.8 4	17.0 8	2.8 0	9.9 5	–	–	1.4 0	1.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 5][p 6][p 7]	19 May 2019	?	?	28.3 14	30.1 15	? 4	? 7	? 2	? 3	–	–	–	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8]	16–19 May 2019	?	?	27.0 13	26.3 13	8.2 4	18.1 9	2.9 0	11.7 6	–	–	2.0 0	0.7
UCAM[p 9]	18 May 2019	?	66.8	27.9 14	29.4 14	8.6 4	14.3 7	3.8 1	9.9 5	–	–	–	1.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10]	13–16 May 2019	?	?	26.0 13	25.9 13	7.9 4	18.8 9	3.5 1	11.7 5	–	–	2.7 0	0.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11]	10–13 May 2019	?	?	25.9 12	24.1 12	6.9 3	21.2 10	4.0 2	13.0 6	–	–	2.0 0	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 12]	7–10 May 2019	?	?	25.0 12	23.4 11	7.7 3	22.9 11	3.9 2	13.5 6	–	–	2.1 0	1.6
CEMOP[p 13]	2–10 May 2019	1,084	69.3	28.5 13/14	27.1 13/14	7.8 4	15.4 8	2.2 0	12.6 6	2.1 0	–	1.5 0	1.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 14]	4–7 May 2019	?	?	24.4 12	23.9 12	7.3 3	23.3 11	3.5 1	13.7 6	–	–	1.9 0	0.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15]	29 Apr–4 May 2019	?	?	24.1 12	24.2 12	7.7 3	23.8 11	3.0 1	13.8 6	–	–	2.0 0	0.1
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	—	73.5	23.4 11	24.8 11	[b]	19.5 9	[b]	18.6 9	1.4 0	10.4 5	0.7 0	1.4
CIS[p 16][p 17]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	519	?	26.1 12/14	31.1 14/17	9.0 4/5	15.3 7/8	4.0 1/2	9.9 4/5	2.2 0	–	–	5.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18]	31 Mar–7 Apr 2019	?	?	26.5 13	22.8 11	6.4 3	17.9 9	4.0 2	14.9 7	–	–	2.0 0	3.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 19]	24–31 Mar 2019	?	?	25.7 12	23.1 12	6.2 3	18.6 9	4.1 2	15.0 7	–	–	2.1 0	2.6
CEMOP[p 20][p 21]	18–30 Mar 2019	1,041	66.3	31.6 15	28.1 13/14	10.8 5	14.4 7	3.0 0/1	8.4 4	0.7 0	–	1.1 0	3.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 22]	17–24 Mar 2019	?	?	25.6 12	23.8 12	6.0 3	19.0 9	4.0 2	14.7 7	–	–	–	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 23]	10–17 Mar 2019	?	?	25.2 12	22.9 11	5.9 3	18.4 9	4.3 2	17.6 8	–	–	–	2.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 24]	3–10 Mar 2019	?	?	24.8 12	22.6 11	[b]	19.5 10	[b]	17.4 8	–	9.8 4	–	2.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 25]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?	24.8 12	22.4 11	[b]	19.8 10	[b]	17.2 8	–	9.8 4	–	2.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 26]	3–9 Feb 2019	591	?	25.5 13	21.6 10	[b]	21.3 10	[b]	15.5 7	–	10.2 5	–	3.9
Celeste-Tel/IU[p 27]	17 Oct–4 Nov 2018	800	62.0	26.9 13	25.9 13	9.6 4	19.8 10	6.0 3	5.2 2	–	–	2.3 0	1.0
CEMOP[p 28][p 29][p 30]	11–28 Oct 2018	815	69.6	30.8 16	26.4 13	10.1 5	18.0 9	2.8 0	5.0 2	2.2 0	–	2.4 0	4.4
CEMOP[p 31][p 32]	2–23 May 2018	817	69.6	25.8 13	18.9 9	10.1 5	31.3 16	–	–	–	–	5.6 2	5.5
SyM Consulting[p 33][p 34]	7–9 Mar 2018	1,100	63.4	32.4 15/16	26.0 12/13	10.2 4/5	18.8 9	7.1 2/3	–	–	–	–	6.4
PP[p 35]	24 Mar 2017	?	?	? 19/20	? 13	? 6	? 4/5	? 2	–	–	–	–	?
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 36][p 37]	16–22 Mar 2017	1,000	?	34.5 16/17	26.1 13/14	15.7 7/8	15.5 6/7	2.4 0	–	–	–	–	8.4
NC Report/La Razón[p 38][p 39]	27 Feb–1 Mar 2017	600	60.4	39.1 20	22.9 12	12.0 6	12.9 6	3.6 1	–	–	–	–	16.2
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	—	69.6	46.7 22	20.3 9	[b]	15.7 7	[b]	0.4 0	1.2 0	14.5 7	–	26.4
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	—	71.1	40.4 20	20.3 10	15.2 7	17.7 8	3.1 0	0.5 0	0.9 0	–	–	20.1
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	63.6	37.4 22	23.9 13	13.2 6	12.6 4	4.8 0	0.8 0	0.7 0	–	–	13.5

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										?	N	Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	20.6	20.6	3.5	7.6	1.3	6.0	0.5	–	1.3	—	35.9	0.0
CEMOP[p 13]	2–10 May 2019	1,084	19.2	20.3	5.5	13.6	0.9	7.4	1.4	–	0.9	22.3	5.6	1.1
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	—	17.6	18.5	[b]	14.6	[b]	14.0	1.0	7.8	0.5	—	24.3	0.9
CIS[p 16]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	519	19.5	23.4	4.5	8.4	1.4	7.2	1.0	–	–	24.5	8.4	3.9
CEMOP[p 21]	18–30 Mar 2019	1,041	21.9	20.1	8.1	12.0	2.0	5.7	1.2	–	0.9	22.1	2.6	1.8
CEMOP[p 29]	11–28 Oct 2018	815	19.4	16.7	5.3	11.4	1.1	3.9	1.2	–	1.5	20.2	12.9	2.7
CEMOP[p 40]	2–23 May 2018	817	16.2	10.3	6.1	22.6	–	–	–	–	2.3	23.5	8.7	6.4
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	—	33.1	14.4	[b]	11.1	[b]	0.3	0.8	10.2	–	—	28.7	18.7
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	—	29.2	14.7	11.0	12.8	2.3	0.3	0.7	–	–	—	27.0	14.5
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	23.9	15.3	8.4	8.0	3.1	0.6	0.5	–	–	—	34.8	8.6

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							Other/ None	?	Lead
CEMOP[p 13]	2–10 May 2019	1,084	25.7	28.0	5.3	16.8	0.4	7.3	3.3	13.3	2.3
CEMOP[p 21]	18–30 Mar 2019	1,041	26.0	25.6	8.1	15.6	2.6	6.4	4.5	11.2	0.4

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
CEMOP[p 13]	2–10 May 2019	1,084	36.4	36.9	0.1	3.0	1.8	0.2	21.7	0.5
CEMOP[p 21]	18–30 Mar 2019	1,041	70.2	12.2	1.0	2.4	2.4	0.4	11.5	58.0

Results

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	212,600	32.47	+8.52	17	+4
	People's Party (PP)	211,849	32.35	−5.00	16	−6
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	78,483	11.99	−0.58	6	+2
	Vox (Vox)	61,998	9.47	+8.62	4	+4
	We Can–Equo (Podemos–Equo)	36,486	5.57	−7.65	2	−4
	Municipalist Coalition MC–CCD–CIFA–PITP–UxA (MC–CCD)1	14,605	2.23	−0.20	0	±0
	We Are Region (Somos Región)	13,373	2.04	New	0	±0
	Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalists) (CR)2	13,252	2.02	−2.79	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	5,561	0.85	+0.12	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	798	0.12	±0.00	0	±0
	With You, We Are Democracy (Contigo)	641	0.10	New	0	±0
	Seniors in Action (3e en acción)	554	0.08	New	0	±0
	Cantonal Party (PCAN)	512	0.08	New	0	±0
	Plural Democracy (DPL)	377	0.06	New	0	±0
	Spanish Digital Democratic Union (UDDE)	228	0.03	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		3,479	0.53	−1.04
Total		654,796			45	±0
Valid votes		654,796	99.30	+1.30
Invalid votes		4,641	0.70	−1.30
Votes cast / turnout		659,437	62.33	−1.24
Abstentions		398,541	37.67	+1.24
Registered voters		1,057,978
Sources[23][30]
Footnotes: 1 Municipalist Coalition MC–CCD–CIFA–PITP–UxA results are compared to the combined totals of Citizens' Movement of Cartagena and Citizens of Democratic Centre in the 2015 election. 2 Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalists) results are compared to Winning the Region of Murcia: Plural Left totals in the 2015 election.

Popular vote PSOE   32.47% PP   32.35% Cs   11.99% Vox   9.47% Podemos–Equo   5.57% MC–CCD   2.23% Somos Región   2.04% CR   2.02% Others   1.32% Blank ballots   0.53%

Seats PSOE   37.78% PP   35.56% Cs   13.33% Vox   8.89% Podemos–Equo   4.44%

Aftermath

Government formation

Further information: Second government of Fernando López Miras

Investiture Fernando López Miras (PP)
Ballot →		2 July 2019	4 July 2019
Required majority →		23 out of 45 N	Simple N
	Yes • PP (16) (15 on 2 Jul) • Cs (6)	21 / 45	22 / 45
	No • PSOE (17) • Vox (4) • Podemos–Equo (2)	23 / 45	23 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45	0 / 45
	Absentees • PP (1) (on 2 Jul)	1 / 45	0 / 45
Sources[23][31][32]

Investiture Fernando López Miras (PP)
Ballot →		26 July 2019
Required majority →		23 out of 45 Y
	Yes • PP (16) • Cs (6) • Vox (4)	26 / 45
	No • PSOE (16) • Podemos–Equo (2)	18 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45
	Absentees • PSOE (1)	1 / 45
Sources[23][33]

2021 motion of no-confidence

Motion of no-confidence Ana Martínez Vidal (Cs)
Ballot →		18 March 2021
Required majority →		23 out of 45 N
	Yes • PSOE (17) • Cs (2) • Podemos (2)	21 / 45
	No • PP (16) • INDEP (6) • Vox (1)	23 / 45
	Abstentions • Cs (1)	1 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources[23][34]

Notes

1. A 2015 legal amendment had seen the five constituencies abolished and replaced by a single multi-member district comprising all the municipalities in the autonomous community. The electoral threshold was also lowered from five to three percent.
2. Within Unidas Podemos.