2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

Not to be confused with 2020 Kansas Senate election.

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →

Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 727,962 571,530 Percentage 53.22% 41.79%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Marshall:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Bollier:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election Pat Roberts Republican Elected U.S. Senator Roger Marshall Republican

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.^[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.^[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.^[3][4]

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district^[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Lance Berland^[6]
• John L. Berman, engineer^[6][7]
• Derek Ellis, quality assurance technician^[6][8]
• Bob Hamilton, businessman^[9]
• Kris Kobach, former secretary of state of Kansas and Republican nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2018^[10]
• Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2002^[11]
• Brian Matlock, economics graduate student^[12]
• John Miller^[6]
• Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education^[13]
• Gabriel Mark Robles^[6]

Withdrawn

• Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2)^[14]
• Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator^[15]
• Susan Wagle, President of the Kansas Senate^[16][17]

Declined

• Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce^[18]
• Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas and lieutenant governor of Kansas^{[19][20][21][22][23]} (endorsed Roger Marshall)^[24]
• Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer^[25] (running for reelection)
• Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2018^[19][20][21]
• Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission^[26]
• Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district^{[27][28][29][30]}
• Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. senator^[1] (endorsed Roger Marshall)^[31][32]
• Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs^[19][33]
• Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General^[34]
• Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State^[35][36]

Primary debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.^[37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,^[37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.^[37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."^[37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.^[37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."^[37]

Endorsements

Kris Kobach

Organizations

• America First Media^[38]
• Gun Owners of America^[39]
• National Association for Gun Rights^[40]
• National Border Patrol Council^[41]
• Open Up Kansas Coalition^[42]
• Kansas Operation Rescue^[43]

Individuals

• David Barton, former Texas Republican Party vice chair^[44]
• Ann Coulter, Fox News correspondent, conservative commentator and lawyer^[45][46]
• James Dobson, Focus on the Family founder^[44]
• Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist^[45][46]

Roger Marshall

Federal officials

• Bob Dole, 1996 Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate Majority Leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996), 1976 Republican vice presidential nominee, former U.S. Representative (KS-06, 1961–1963; KS-01, 1963–1969)^[47]
• Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former U.S. representative (GA-06, 1979–1999)^[48]

Organizations

• Family Policy Alliance of Kansas^[49]
• Family Research Council (FRC) Action^[50]
• Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC^[43]
• Kansas Farm Bureau^[51]
• Kansas Livestock Association^[52]
• National Right to Life Committee^[53]
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce^[54]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Bob Hamilton	Kris Kobach	Dave Lindstrom	Roger Marshall	Susan Wagle	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55]	May 30 – June 1, 2020	419 (LV)	–	15%	35%	4%	26%	–	4%[b]	16%
	May 28, 2020	Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[56][A]	May 10–12, 2020	600 (V)	±  4%	6%	26%	4%	33%	7%	–	24%
	March 30, 2020	Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[57][B]	February 12–16, 2020	300 (LV)	± 5.6%	2%	40%	5%	23%	8%	–	21%
co/efficient (R)[58]	January 19–20, 2020	1,246 LV	± 3.2%	–	29%	–	29%	6%	9%[c]	28%
The Tarrance Group (R)[59][C]	October 21–23, 2019	607 (LV)	± 4.1%	–	43%	3%	24%	8%	5%[d]	16%

Hypothetical polling

with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kris Kobach	Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A]	May 10–12, 2020	600 (V)	± 4%	34%	48%

with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Bob Hamilton	Kris Kobach	Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A]	May 10–12, 2020	600 (V)	± 4%	10%	29%	41%

with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kris Kobach	Roger Marshall	Mike Pompeo	Other	Undecided
NRSC[61][C]	October 21–23, 2019	607 (LV)	± 4.1%	17%	11%	54%	7%[e]	10%

with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kris Kobach	Mike Pompeo
NRSC[61][C]	October 21–23, 2019	607 (LV)	± 4.1%	24%	68%

Results

Primary results by county

  Marshall

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Kobach

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Hamilton

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

Republican primary results^[62]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roger Marshall	167,800	40.28%
	Republican	Kris Kobach	108,726	26.10%
	Republican	Bob Hamilton	77,952	18.71%
	Republican	Dave Lindstrom	27,451	6.59%
	Republican	Steve Roberts	8,141	1.95%
	Republican	Brian Matlock	7,083	1.70%
	Republican	Lance Berland	6,404	1.54%
	Republican	John Miller	4,431	1.06%
	Republican	Derek Ellis	3,970	0.95%
	Republican	Gabriel Robles	3,744	0.90%
	Republican	John Berman	861	0.21%
Total votes			416,563	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator^[63]

Eliminated in primary

• Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate^[64][6]

Withdrawn

• Elliot Adams, database developer^[65]
• Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district (endorsed Bollier)^[18][66]
• Corbie Crow, certified public accountant^[67]
• Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)^[68]
• Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan^[69][70]
• Adam Smith^[64][71][6]

Declined

• Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives, nominee for governor in 2014 and KS-02 in 2018^[25]
• Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner^[72]
• Sarah Smarsh, author^[73]
• Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018^[74]
• Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018^[75]

Endorsements

Barbara Bollier

U.S. Senators

• Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader^[76]

Federal officials

• Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative (KS-02)^[66]

State politicians

• Kathleen Sebelius, former governor (2003-2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)^[77]

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Barry Grissom, former U.S. Attorney for Kansas (2010-2016)^[78]

State legislators

• Stacey Abrams, former Georgia House of Representatives Minority Leader (2011-2017) and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election^[79]

Organizations

• DSCC^[80]
• Emily's List^[80]
• End Citizens United^[81]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[82]
• Giffords^[83]
• Human Rights Campaign^[84]
• League of Conservation Voters^[85]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America^[86]
• Planned Parenthood^[87]
• Sierra Club^[88]
• Women's Political Committee^[89]

Results

Primary results by county

  Bollier

•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90–100%

  Tillman

•   50–60%

Democratic primary results^[62]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier	168,759	85.34%
	Democratic	Robert Tillman	28,997	14.66%
Total votes			197,756	100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran^[90]

Independents

Withdrawn

• Paul Tuten^[64][6]

General election

Post-primary endorsements

Roger Marshall (R)

Federal officials

• Sheila Frahm, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (1985–1996) and former U.S. senator from Kansas (1996)^[91]

Barbara Bollier (D)

Federal officials

• Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (NY)^[92]
• Nancy Kassebaum, former U.S. senator (KS) (Republican)^[93]

State and local officials

• Barbara Allen, former Republican Kansas state senator^[94]
• Pat Colloton, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Linda Gallagher, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Laura Kelly, governor of Kansas (2019–present)^[95]
• Jan Kessinger, Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Audrey Langworthy, former Republican Kansas state senator^[94]
• Patty Markley, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Tim Owens, former Republican Kansas state senator^[94]
• Jill Quigley, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Gary Sherrer, former Republican lieutenant governor of Kansas (1996–2003)^[94]
• John Skubal, Republican Kansas state senator^[94]
• Sheryl Spalding, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• John Vratil, former Republican Kansas state senator and former Senate vice president^[94]
• Ron Worley, former Republican Kansas state representative^[94]
• Jim Yonally, former Republican Kansas state representative^[96]

Organizations

• 314 Action^[97]
• Brady Campaign^[98]
• Council for a Livable World^[99]
• Everytown for Gun Safety^[100]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund^[101]
• Rachel's Action Network^[102]

Unions

• AFL–CIO Kansas^[103]
• National Education Association^[104]
• United Auto Workers^[105]

Newspapers and publications

• The Kansas City Star^[106]
• The Wichita Eagle^[107]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[108]	Lean R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[109]	Tilt R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[111]	Lean R	October 30, 2020
Politico[112]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
RCP[113]	Lean R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ[114]	Lean R	November 3, 2020
538[115]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
Economist[116]	Lean R	November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Roger Marshall (R)	Barbara Bollier (D)	Jason Buckley (L)	Other	Undecided
Data For Progress[117]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	51%	45%	4%	1%[f]	–
VCreek/AMG[118]	October 25–27, 2020	1,149 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	43%	2%	–	8%
GBAO Strategies (D)[119][g][D]	October 25–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	45%[h]	46%	4%	4%[i]	–
				47%[j]	47%	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling (D)[120][E]	October 19–20, 2020	897 (V)	± 3.3%	43%	43%	5%	–	9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[121]	October 18–20, 2020	755 (LV)	± 4%	46%	42%	4%	2%[k]	6%[l]
co/efficient (R)[122][F]	October 18–20, 2020	2,453 (LV)	± 3.7%	51%	39%	2%	–	8%
VCreek/AMG (R)[123]	September 29–30, 2020	3,104 (LV)	± 1.75%	42%	45%	2%	–	11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[124]	September 26–29, 2020	677 (LV)	± 4.5%	50%	43%	–	2%[m]	5%
GBAO Strategies (D)[125][D]	September 24–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	43%	45%	7%	–	–
Data For Progress (D)[126]	September 14–19, 2020	883 (LV)	± 3.3%	40%[h]	40%	5%	–	15%
				42%[j]	42%	–	–	15%
co/efficient (R)[127][F]	September 15–16, 2020	794 (LV)	± 3.5%	43%	39%	2%	–	16%
SurveyUSA[128]	August 8–9, 2020	1,202 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	44%	–	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][G]	August 5–6, 2020	864 (V)	± 3.3%	43%	42%	–	–	15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55]	May 30 – June 1, 2020	699 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	41%	–	9%[c]	8%
NMB Research (R)[130][A]	May 17–19, 2020	506 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	35%	–	–	18%
Public Policy Polling[131]	March 10–11, 2020	1,567 (V)	± 2.5%	47%	37%	–	–	–

Hypothetical polling

Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Bob Hamilton (R)	Barbara Bollier (D)	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55]	May 30 – June 1, 2020	699 (RV)	± 4.2%	40%	41%	11%[n]	8%

Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kris Kobach (R)	Barbara Bollier (D)	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55]	May 30 – June 1, 2020	699 (RV)	± 4.2%	41%	42%	11%[n]	7%
NMB Research/NRSC (R)[132][C]	May 17–19, 2020	506 (LV)	± 4.5%	44%	43%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H]	April 13–14, 2020	1,271 (RV)	± 2.7%	42%	44%	–	13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[134][B]	February 12–13, 2020	300 (LV)	± 5.6%	47%	38%	–	15%
DFM Research[135][I]	January 30 – February 6, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%	43%	43%	4%	10%

Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kris Kobach (R)	Barry Grissom (D)	Undecided
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[136][C]	June 9–11, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4%	42%[o]	52%	–

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Generic Republican (R)	Generic Democrat (D)	Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[137][J]	September 15–16, 2020	794 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	39%	–
Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H]	April 13–14, 2020	1,271 (RV)	± 2.7%	50%	40%	11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division[138][I]	January 30 – February 6, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%	39%	31%	30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[136][C]	June 9–11, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	36%	–

Results

On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.^[139]

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020^[140]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roger Marshall	727,962	53.22%	+0.07%
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier	571,530	41.79%	N/A
	Libertarian	Jason Buckley	68,263	4.99%	+0.67%
Total votes			1,367,755	100.0%
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

• Douglas (largest city: Lawrence)
• Shawnee (largest city: Topeka)
• Wyandotte (largest city: Kansas City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Johnson (largest city: Overland Park)
• Riley (largest city: Manhattan)

By congressional district

Marshall won three of four congressional districts.^[141]

District	Marshall	Bollier	Representative
1st	66%	29%	Roger Marshall
			Tracey Mann
2nd	52%	42%	Steve Watkins
			Jake LaTurner
3rd	42%	53%	Sharice Davids
4th	56%	39%	Ron Estes

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "someone else" with 4%
3. "Someone else" with 9%
4. Hartman with 5%
5. Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
6. "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
7. Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
8. Standard VI response
9. Includes Undecided
10. If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates
11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
12. Includes "Refused"
13. "Someone else" with 2%
14. "Someone else" with 11%
15. Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
2. This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
3. This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
4. Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.
5. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
6. Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.
7. Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
8. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
9. The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
10. Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period

See also

• 2020 Kansas elections
• List of United States senators from Kansas