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2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

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2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...

This race was one of two-Democratic held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2]

The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, Donald Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James's outperformance of polling expectations despite losing the state's Senate election in 2018. However, most analysts still believed Gary Peters to be the more likely winner.

Peters won re-election to a second term, though by a much closer margin than expected.[5] James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede,[6] baselessly claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat.".[7] On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day.[8] With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary results

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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

John James

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

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Other candidates

Communist Party

Withdrawn

Green Party

Nominee

  • Marcia Squier (2018 Green Party nominee for US Senate)[48]

Natural Law Party

Nominee

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

  • Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[37]

Independents

  • Leonard Gadzinski[49]

Withdrawn

General election

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Predictions

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Additional general election endorsements

Gary Peters (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Organizations

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Labor unions

Newspapers

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

More information John James vs. Gary Peters, Source of poll aggregation ...
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Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary. with Bob Carr and John James

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with Bill Schuette

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

with Gary Peters and Generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent

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with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Polls indicated that the race would be close, with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved "no reason required" absentee balloting.[249] The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters.[250] Michigan law at that time did not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots,[251][252] so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a "mirage" effect because more Republicans voted on election day, and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot.[253] James was ahead when the counting of election day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated, and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting.[254] When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%.[255]

Peters was able to win re-election by running up a big margin in Wayne County, home of Detroit, winning over 67% of the vote there. He also managed to improve his performance in the reliably Democratic Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor, improving on his 2014 election by almost three percentage points. He also came within just 1,139 votes of winning Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, having lost the county by over eight percentage points six years prior. Peters was sworn in for his second term on January 3, 2021. His term will expire on January 3, 2027.

African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Peters winning the election.[256]

James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

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By county

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By congressional district

Despite losing the state, James won eight of 14 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[259]

More information District, Peters ...

Litigation

After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published on his campaign website. The statement said that there were "[...] deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that "[...] there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner."[7] A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit.[6][260][261] James conceded the election to Peters on November 24.[262]

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See also

Notes

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  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  5. "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  6. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  7. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. "Someone else" with 2%
  9. Squier (G) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  10. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  11. Squier (G) with 3%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  12. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 2%
  13. Standard VI response
  14. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  15. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  16. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  17. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  18. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  19. "Third party" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  20. "Other/third party" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  21. Undecided with 3%
  22. Additional details sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. Not yet released
  24. Undecided with 1%
  25. Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "Someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  26. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  27. Undecided with 9%
  28. "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  29. Undecided with 7%
  30. Undecided with 6%
  31. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  32. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  33. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  34. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  35. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  36. Undecided with 8%
  37. "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
  38. Undecided with 9%
  39. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  40. "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
  41. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  42. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  43. Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 13%
  44. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  45. Undecided with 10%
  46. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  47. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  48. Did/would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  49. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 3%
  50. "Do not recall" with 1%; "Did not vote" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  51. "Refused" with 2%; "Third Party" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  52. Squier (G) with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  53. "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  54. "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  55. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  56. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  57. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  58. Undecided with 12%
  59. "Someone else" with 8%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  60. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  61. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  62. "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
  63. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  64. Squier (G) with 2%; Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 1%; Dern (Natural Law) and "someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  65. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  67. Undecided with 14%
  68. "Other candidates" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  69. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  70. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  71. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  72. Squier (G) with 4%; Undecided with 10%
  73. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  74. "Another party candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  75. "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  76. Undecided with 8%
  77. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  78. "Undecided/refused" with 10%
  79. "Third party" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  80. "None of the above/neither" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  81. "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  82. Undecided with 11%
  83. "Someone else" with 14%; "refused" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  84. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  85. Undecided with 9%
  86. "Another candidate" with 7%; Undecided with 8%
  87. Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  88. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  89. Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
  90. Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
  91. Undecided with 12%
  92. Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  93. Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  94. Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
  95. Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  96. Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
  97. Includes "refused"
  98. "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  99. Undecided with 17%
  100. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  101. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  102. The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
  103. "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
  104. "Candidate from another party" with 2%
  105. "Prefer not to answer/refused" with 7%; "will not vote/not sure" with 1%
  106. "Independent/Undecided" with 15%
  107. "Independent/Undecided" with 16%
  108. "Independent/Undecided" with 12%

Partisan clients

  1. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. Poll conducted for James' campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by The American Bridge PAC, which exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates
  6. Poll conducted for Progress Michigan, a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates.
  7. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  8. Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  9. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  10. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  11. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. Poll sponsored by Giffords, which had endorsed Peters prior to the sampling period
  13. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
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