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2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

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2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew

  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements

Results

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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

  • Sandy Pensler, former Wayne County Commissioner, businessman and candidate for MI-08 in 1992[17][16]

Failed to qualify

  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[18][16]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

John James

U.S. President

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State Senators[38][39][40]

State Representatives[38]

Judges

Cabinet-level officials

  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]

Individuals

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)

Individuals

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
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Results

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Results by county:
  James
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Pensler
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
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Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

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Perspective

Debates

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018, Candidate (party) ...

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Notes
  1. Not yet released, but is Republican primary subsample of full 800 voter sample in Michigan
  2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Individuals

John James (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State Senators[38][39][40]

State Representatives[38]

Judges

Cabinet-level officials

  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]

Individuals

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

with Sandy Pensler

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with generic Democrat and Republican

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with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)

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Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[152] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stabenow and James each won seven of 14 congressional districts.[154]

More information District, Stabenow ...
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Notes

    Partisan clients

    1. Poll conducted for James' campaign.

    References

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