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2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

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2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
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The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominees, incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominees, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

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New Hampshire is by far the most fiscally conservative state in New England, and its population has a strong disdain for taxes, historically giving Republicans an edge in its state office elections. However, like the rest of the region, it is very liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, and thus the Democratic Party has dominated in its federal elections in recent years. Although the state came extremely close to voting for Trump in 2016, polls throughout the 2020 campaign showed a clear Biden lead, and prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was favored to win.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering the votes of 58% of white women, and 69% of unmarried women.[4] Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions,[4] a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.

Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Despite that, on the same ballot, incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won his third term with more than 65% of the vote, and Republicans regained control of both of New Hampshire's state legislative chambers and the state's Executive Council. [5] Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.

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Primary elections

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The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[6]

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7] Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.

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County won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—85–90%
  Trump—80–85%
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Congressional district won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—80–85%
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Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[10]

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Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Buttigieg—<30%
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Popular vote share by congressional district
  Sanders—25–30%
More information Candidate, Votes ...

Libertarian primary

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Mail-in ballots were due by January 11, at the state convention. The primary was tabulated using Bucklin voting. Percentages shown are percentage of ballots cast.[16][17]

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General election

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Final predictions

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Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

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Polls

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Results

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By county

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won both congressional districts.[73]

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Analysis

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Biden flipped the counties of Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Sullivan, of which Hillsborough (which houses the state's largest city of Manchester) and Sullivan had voted for Barack Obama twice before switching to Trump in 2016. Carroll and Rockingham last voted Democratic in 2008, although Rockingham last gave a Democrat a majority of the vote in 1964. Biden also significantly expanded Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead of 2,736 votes (0.37%) to 59,267 votes (7.35%).

Edison exit polls

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See also

Notes

  1. Including 157 write-in votes
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Another candidate" with 1%
  6. "Another candidate" with 0%
  7. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 4%
  9. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. "Someone else" with 2%
  11. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. Standard VI response
  13. Hawkins (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  14. With only Biden, Trump and "Another candidate" as options
  15. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  16. Includes "Refused"
  17. "Another candidate" with 4%
  18. "Another candidate" with 6%
  19. "Another candidate" with 5%
  20. "Another candidate" with 8%
  21. Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  22. Data not yet released
  23. "Someone else" with 9%
  24. Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
  25. Would not vote with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
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References

Further reading

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