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2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state Senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...

In the primaries on May 17, 2022, Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Mastriano, who was endorsed by Donald Trump (between presidencies), won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote over former congressman Lou Barletta and former U.S. attorney William McSwain. Although the election was expected to be competitive due to Pennsylvania's reputation as a swing state, Mastriano had trouble fundraising, made few media appearances, committed multiple gaffes, was accused of antisemitism against Shapiro, and generated controversy from his far-right positions.[1][2][3][4][5][6] Mastriano's struggles helped Shapiro take a strong polling lead that continued up to the election.

Shapiro defeated Mastriano by almost 15 points, the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate for Pennsylvania governor since 1946, and earned the most votes of a Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate at just over three million.[7][8] His large margin of victory was credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. The victory also marked the first time since 1844 that the Democratic Party won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania, and the first since 1950 that any party had done so.[citation needed] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by 31 percentage points, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.[9][10]

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Democratic primary

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Governor

Campaign

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro had failed.[11][12]

Candidates

Nominee
Failed to qualify for ballot access
Declined

Endorsements

Josh Shapiro

U.S. senators

State executives

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Lieutenant governor

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Democratic nominee Austin Davis

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Withdrew

Endorsements

Austin Davis

State executives

State legislators

State representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Brian Sims

Organizations

Results

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Results by county
  Davis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Republican primary

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In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, state Senator Doug Mastriano, and former Delaware County councilmember Dave White.

Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election,[77] while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate.[78]

Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano's ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction.[79]

On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta.[80] On May 14, former president Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano.[81][82] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta.[83] Mastriano won the primary with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.

The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November.[84]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Debate

More information No., Date ...

Endorsements

Lou Barletta

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

  • Rick Santorum, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016 (previously endorsed Corman)[122]

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Organizations

  • Oil and Gas Workers Association[130]
Jake Corman (withdrawn)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 (switched endorsement to Barletta after Corman withdrew)[122]
Charlie Gerow

U.S. representatives

Organizations

  • American Conservative Union[133]
Doug Mastriano

U.S. presidents

Executive branch officials

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

William McSwain

U.S. senators

Party officials

Jason Richey (withdrawn)

Individuals

Dave White

Executive branch officials

State legislators

Declined to endorse

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

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Results by county
  Mastriano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Barletta
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  McSwain
  •   30–40%
  White
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[177] (endorsed Coleman)

Endorsements

Teddy Daniels

State legislators

Jeff Coleman

U.S. senators

Individuals

  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021)[177]
Russ Diamond

Organizations

  • Stand for Health Freedom[180]

Results

Thumb
  DelRosso
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Saccone
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Daniels
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Schillinger
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Coleman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Diamond
  •   60–70%
  Brown
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Frye
  •   20–30%
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Libertarian nomination

The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[181][182][183]

Governor

Nominee

  • Matt Hackenburg, aerospace computer engineer[184]

Eliminated in board vote

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Nicole Shultz, auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2021–2022) (ran for Governor)[168][186][187][185]

Green convention

The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[181][182][183]

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

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Keystone nomination

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Nicole Shultz (Keystone nominee), auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Keystone Party of Pennsylvania (2022–present) (originally ran as a Libertarian for lieutenant governor and later governor)[193][186][197][183]
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General election

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Campaign

Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasizing protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. On criminal justice issues, Shapiro promised to sign a bill abolishing the death penalty having previously supported it, but also faced criticism from some left-wing voters for adopting a "tough on crime" image. In addition, he has openly feuded with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.[198]

State Senator Doug Mastriano positioned himself as a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, defense of Confederate monuments,[199] arming school teachers with firearms,[200] and disobeying COVID-19 safety protocols.[201] Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro.[6] One of Mastriano's most vocal supporters was Andrew Torba, the CEO of far-right social media website Gab, a website on which the perpetrator of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting posted before committing the massacre. Torba donated $500 to the Mastriano campaign, and Mastriano himself told the Gab founder in an interview, "Thank God for what you've done."[202]

No debate was held during the general election, as Shapiro and Mastriano were unable to come to an agreement on how to debate.[203] In addition, Mastriano did not release his first general election ads until October, while the more well-funded Shapiro had already spent $18.6 million in television broadcasting by that time.[204] These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach.[205]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Josh Shapiro (D)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

State officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Individuals

Doug Mastriano (R)

Executive branch officials

State officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2022, Candidate ...

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Thumb
Thumb
More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information County, Josh Shapiro Democratic Party ...

By congressional district

Shapiro won 11 of 17 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[391]

More information District, Shapiro ...
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Analysis

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Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano by 14.8%. While this marked a 2.73% Republican swing from 2018, it was still 13.18% larger than Joe Biden's win in the presidential race in Pennsylvania two years earlier in 2020, and 9.86% larger than Shapiro's reelection for Attorney General that same year. All counties in the Keystone State voted the exact same way they did in 2018, with Shapiro doing best in heavily populated Southeastern Pennsylvania, which is made up of Philadelphia and its suburbs, Berks County (Reading), the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton), the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton), the Susquehanna Valley (Harrisburg and Carlisle), Erie County in the northwest corner, and finally, Greater Pittsburgh in the southwest.

Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, piled up large margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties, but also won some populous places located in the western part of the state, like Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland counties near Pittsburgh. However, Mastriano significantly underperformed President Donald Trump's margins in the 2020 Presidential election in some of those counties; Westmoreland County, for example, voted for Trump by 28 points in 2020, but only backed Mastriano by 6 points in 2022. A similar leftward shift happened in neighboring Washington County, with Shapiro only losing the county by 2 points despite Joe Biden losing the county by over 20 points 2 years earlier. Mastriano also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained either fully or partially within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate independents and Republicans in these areas.[citation needed]

Southeastern Pennsylvania, a strong Democratic area during elections, shifted more Democratic. This region, with strongly Democratic Philadelphia, anchored by its suburbs, has become a Democratic stronghold in elections, winning all Delaware Valley counties. Southeastern Pennsylvania piled up large margins in its suburbs. Its electorate is highly educated, affluent, and diverse. In addition to the region's strong Democratic tilt, abortion rights were a significant campaign issue among voters. According to CNN polling data,[392] 62% of Pennsylvania voters believed abortion should be legal, and those voters broke for Shapiro by a landslide margin of 81%–18%. College-educated voters, who made up 41% of the electorate, also voted heavily for Shapiro by a 64%–35% margin. Shapiro won 92% of Black voters, 72% of Latino voters, and 50% of White voters. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.[9]

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,657 voters in person as well as by phone.[392]

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See also

Notes

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  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Gerow with 4%; Gale with 3%
  4. Gerow with 3%; Hart with 2%; Gale and Zama with 1%
  5. Gerow with 3%; Hart, Gale, and "Other" with 1%; Zama with 0%
  6. Hart with 4%, Gale with 3%, Gerow with 2%
  7. Hart with 4%; Gale with 2%; Gerow, Zama, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 5%; Hart and Zama with 2%; Gale and Gerow with 1%
  9. Hart with 4%, Gale and Zama with 2%, Gerow with 1%
  10. "Someone else" with 7%, Gale and Hart with 3%, Gerow with 1%, Zama with 0%
  11. Gale, Gerow, and Hart with 3%; Zama with 2%
  12. Gale and Hart with 3%; Gerow with 2%; Zama with 0%
  13. Zama and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  14. Gale with 3%; Richley with 1%
  15. "None/other" with 4%; Gale and Richey with 1%; Ciarrocchi, Gerow, Laughlin, and Zama with 0%
  16. "Someone else" with 10%; "Other" with 7%
  17. Meuser with 3%, Cawley with 2%, "None/other" with 1%; Gale and Richey with 1%
  18. Withdrew after deadline, remained on ballot
  19. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "All others" with 2%
  22. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 1%
  24. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  25. "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
  26. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  27. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  28. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with 1%; DiGuilio (G) with <1%
  29. "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  30. Hackenburg (L) with 2%, Soloski (K) with 1%, Digiulio (G) with 1%
  31. "Someone else" with 4%
  32. "Neither/Other" with 2%
  33. "someone else" with 2%
  34. Hackenburg (L) with <1%; Digiulio (G) with <1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  35. Hackenburg (L) with 3%, "someone else" with 1%
  36. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  37. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  38. DiGuilo (G), Hackenburg (L) and Soloski (K) with 1%
  39. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  40. "Neither" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  41. "Neither" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  42. "Someone else" with 2%
  43. "Other" with 1%
  44. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  46. "Someone else" with 2%
  47. Hackenburg (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  48. "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  49. "Neither/Other" with 1%
  50. Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 2%
  51. "Someone else" with 4%
  52. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Soloski (K) with 0%
  53. Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 1%
  54. DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) and "someone else" with <1%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  2. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire.
  4. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Mastriano.
  5. This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project.
  6. This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund.
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References

External links

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