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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.[1] Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded Republican incumbent senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in 2022 and one of the two Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...

In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote.[2] Oz finished with a 0.1% margin ahead of businessman Dave McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3,[3] making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[4] McCormick then won Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senate seat in 2024, defeating incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

The general election was among the most competitive of the 2022 midterms and characterized as highly contentious. Fetterman framed Oz as an elitist carpetbagger with a radical anti-abortion stance in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade, while Oz framed Fetterman as a socialist insufficiently committed to fighting crime. Fetterman's health was also a major issue due to him suffering a stroke days before his primary victory.[5] Although Fetterman led most pre-election polls, concerns towards his health and a scrutinized debate performance helped Oz take a narrow lead before the election.[6][7][8]

Despite Oz's lead in final polls, Fetterman won by a 4.9% margin, helping provide Senate Democrats a net gain of one seat and their first outright majority since 2015. With Fetterman's victory, elected Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947.[a]

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Republican primary

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Former U.S. Treasury Under Secretary and future U.S. Senator David McCormick narrowly lost the primary, placing second.
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Author Kathy Barnette finished third in the primary.
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Former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands finished fourth in the primary.
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Former Pennsylvania Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto finished seventh in the primary.

Campaign

Early campaign

In October 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey decided not to run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[9]

By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.[10] However, Parnell's campaign faced a large scandal in November 2021, after his ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell had strangled and spat on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[11] Parnell denied the allegations under oath.[12] Even before these allegations were made, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[12][failed verification] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the couple's children and Parnell suspended his campaign.[13]

Entry of Oz and McCormick

On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[14] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[14][15] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick, a businessman, into the race prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[16] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of well-funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal."[17]

Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[18][19] Despite this, political commentators largely considered Oz and McCormick to be the frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing them.[20]

The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing Oz of harboring dual loyalties.[21] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[22] Former president Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[23] Oz frequently highlighted this endorsement, it becoming one of his major talking points during the campaign.[20]

Late campaign

Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz, with both men polling the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth. Her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[24] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[24] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."[25]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • John Debellis, small business owner[37]
  • John Eichenberg, truck driver[38]
  • Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate[39]
  • Ron Johnson, former Fredonia borough councilor[40][41] (ran as the Constitution nominee)
  • Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician[42]
  • Max Richardson[43]
  • Martin Rosenfeld, Elk County deputy sheriff and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party[44]
  • David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner[45]

Withdrew

Declined

Debates and forums

More information No., Date ...

Endorsements

Kathy Barnette

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Individuals

Jeff Bartos

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

George Bochetto

Judges

Labor unions

Robert Jeffries

Individuals

Dave McCormick

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. Governors

U.S. Representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

Individuals

Mehmet Oz

U.S. Presidents

Executive branch officials

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Individuals

Carla Sands

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Sean Parnell (withdrawn)

U.S. Presidents

  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[95]

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Craig Snyder (withdrawn)

Executive branch officials

U.S. Representatives

Declined to endorse

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor.[130] A mandatory recount then began.[131][130] Former president Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[132] With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes.[133] A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.[134]

On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[135]

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Results by county:
  Oz
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  McCormick
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Barnette
  •   30–40%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Democratic primary

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U.S. Representative Conor Lamb finished second in the primary.
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State representative Malcolm Kenyatta finished third in the primary.
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Jenkintown borough councilor Alexandra Khalil finished fourth in the primary.

Campaign

The first two major Democratic candidates were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[136] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[136] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[137] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[138][139]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[140] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[141] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[141]

In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[142]

Lamb received the assistance of the “Penn Progress” Super PAC,[143][144] which spent the entirety of its funds in support of Lamb's campaign.[145] Lamb worked closely with the Super PAC, and participated in donor calls it arranged.[146][147] The Penn Progress Super PAC bankrolled TV ads which sought to portray Fetterman as a "self-described democratic socialist." Within a day of airing, PolitiFact and Factcheck.org called the attack ad false,[148] The Philadelphia Inquirer commented that Fetterman had never actually described himself that way,[149] the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia stopped broadcasting the ad,[150] and Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Lamb to disavow it.[151]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Kael Dougherty, data operations associate[158]
  • Larry Johnson, attorney[159]
  • Alan Shank, retail worker[160]
  • Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker[161]
  • Lew Tapera, retail worker[162]

Withdrew

Declined

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Endorsements

Val Arkoosh (withdrawn)

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

John Fetterman

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Individuals

Malcolm Kenyatta

U.S. Representatives

State representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Political parties

Individuals

Conor Lamb

U.S. Representatives

State senators

State representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Individuals

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in the Delaware Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, while in contrast Fetterman's position as lieutenant governor gave him statewide name recognition. Lamb was often compared with conservative Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, whom Fetterman criticized harshly. However, Lamb also criticized the Senators and said that he would vote in favor of eliminating the filibuster in contrast to them.[232][233] In addition, the far more contested Republican primary had consumed media attention that Lamb might have otherwise used to gain more name recognition.[234] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed".[235]

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Results by county
  Fetterman
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Libertarian convention

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Libertarian nominee Erik Gerhardt

The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[236][237]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020[238][239]

Withdrew

Green convention

The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[236][237]

Candidates

Nominee

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Qualified for ballot

Declared write-in

Withdrew

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General election

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Perspective

Campaign

Fetterman's campaign framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman also flew banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame.[253] In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from".[254]

Oz's campaign criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and made an issue of Fetterman's health.[255][256][257] In September, Oz published his medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate.[258][259][260] Oz's campaign also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.[261][262]

Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz until late October was criticized by Oz's campaign.[263][264] Fetterman attributed the delay in debating to lingering issues from his stroke and his team criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery.[265][266] A single debate was held on October 25.[265]

Crudités video

On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral.[267] In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden.

The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors; Fetterman himself replied saying that Pennsylvanians refer to crudités as "veggie trays".[268][269] Oz's choice of a raw head of broccoli, asparagus, and multiple pounds of carrots, with guacamole and salsa, was criticized as wrong by some.[270] Others expressed confusion at Oz's statement that the $20 cost of the vegetables and dips "doesn't even include the tequila", as tequila is not a traditional accompaniment to crudités and liquor is not sold in grocery stores in Pennsylvania.[268] Many observers noted Oz quoted the wrong price tag for the salsa and falsely suggested the broccoli was $2 per head when it was $2 per pound.[271]

The number of internet searches for crudités dramatically increased in the aftermath of the video's circulation. Oz appearing to confuse the Redner's and Wegmans supermarket chains led to the name "Wegner's" trending on Twitter and a parody Twitter account called "Wegner's Groceries" gaining popularity.[268] The Fetterman campaign sought to capitalize on the video by introducing merchandise referencing it.[272] When asked if the video made him unrelatable to voters, Oz emphasized he helped others throughout his career and would continue to help if elected.[273]

Debate

In the October 25 debate, a special arrangement of transcription monitors was put in place to assist Fetterman with his auditory processing issue. According to the Associated Press, Fetterman "struggled at times to explain his positions and often spoke haltingly", with Fetterman facing issues completing sentences and frequently pausing after questions were asked. Oz was described as being "more at home on the debate stage" and presented himself as a moderate Republican, and did not reference Fetterman's health condition. Independent health experts said that Fetterman was recovering "remarkably well".[274] Fetterman particularly struggled answering a question regarding his previous opposition to fracking by stating he always supported fracking, while Oz answered a question on abortion by saying that the federal government should have no role in states' abortion decisions, instead leaving abortion decisions to "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders".[275][276][277][278]

According to Politico and The Guardian, Fetterman "struggled" during the debate, and some Democrats questioned why he chose to debate at all.[279][280] After the debate, the Fetterman campaign claimed that the closed captioning system provided by Nexstar Media Group gave incorrect and slow captions. Nexstar denied the claims, arguing the captioning "worked as expected" and that the Fetterman team had had the opportunity for two rehearsals with the equipment and opted to only do one.[281]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Post-primary endorsements

Mehmet Oz (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Local officials

Party officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Individuals

John Fetterman (D)

U.S. Presidents

Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State senators

State representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Fetterman won the election by 4.9 percentage points, and was declared the winner in the early hours of November 9. The early victory came as a shock to many pundits, as the race was expected to take several days to project a winner;[469] the race was one of the first signs of the coming Democratic overperformance relative to the final polls in the midterms writ large.[citation needed] Oz underperformed former Republican president Donald Trump's performance in the 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania by 3.7 percentage points, while overperforming Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the concurrent gubernatorial race by 10 percentage points. As a result of this election, Democrats would be elected to both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947, and from this seat since 1962.[bn] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Fetterman won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Oz's defeat.[470]

More information Party, Candidate ...
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By county

More information By county, County ...

By congressional district

Fetterman won ten of 17 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[474]

More information District, Oz ...

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,660 voters in person as well as by phone.[475]

More information Demographic subgroup, Fetterman ...
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See also

Notes

Summarize
Perspective
  1. Democrats held both of Pennsylvania's Senate seats from 2009 to 2011 when Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican, switched to the Democratic Party.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Bochetto and Gale with 2%
  5. Bochetto with 1%, Gale with 0%
  6. Bochetto, Gale, and "Other" with 1%
  7. Bochetto with 1%
  8. Bochetto and Gale with 1%
  9. Gale with 2%, Bochetto and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  10. "Someone else" with 5%, Gale with 1%, Bochetto with 0%
  11. Bochetto with 3%, Gale with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 6%, Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 0%
  13. Bochetto and Gale with ≤1%
  14. Bochetto with 4%, Gale with 3%
  15. Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 1%
  16. Bochetto, Stern, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  17. Bochetto, Gale, and Stern with 2%
  18. "Another Candidate" with 11%, Gale with 1%
  19. Gale with 4%; Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%; Stern with 0%
  20. Gale with 2%
  21. "Someone else" with 3%, Gale with 0%
  22. "Someone else" with 7%, Gale with 3%
  23. Fetterman was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  24. Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate received the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
  25. "Someone else" with 4%; Baumlin and Khalil with 1%
  26. "Someone else" with 9%; Baumlin and Khalil with 0%
  27. Khalil with 4%
  28. Baumlin with 9%; Khalil with 3%
  29. Houlahan with 8%
  30. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  31. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "All others" with 1%
  32. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
  33. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Weiss (G) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  34. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  35. "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with 1%
  36. Gerhardt (L) with 2%, Weiss (G) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with <1%
  37. Gerhardt (L) with 2%, Weiss (G) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  38. Gerhardt (L) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  39. Stern (I, WI) with 4%; "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  40. "Someone else" with 4%
  41. "Neither/Other" with 3%
  42. Gerhardt (L) with 3%, "Someone else" with 1%
  43. Gerhardt (L) with <1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  44. "Someone else" with 1%
  45. "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%; Gerhardt (L) with 1%
  46. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  47. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Weiss (G) and Wassmer (K) with 1%
  48. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  49. "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 1%
  50. "Neither" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  51. "Someone else" with 3%
  52. "Other" with 2%
  53. Gerhardt (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  54. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Wassmer (K) with 1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  55. "Someone else" with 5%
  56. Stern (I, W/I) with 3%, "other" with 1%, and 3% "wouldn't vote,"
  57. Stern (I, W/I) with 2%, "other" with 1%
  58. Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 4%
  59. "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  60. "Neither/Other" with 5%
  61. Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 4%
  62. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Gerhardt (L) with 3%; Wassmer (K) and Weiss (G) with 1%
  63. Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 2%
  64. Stern (I, WI) with 3%; "other" (volunteered response) with 2%
  65. Gerhardt (L), Magee (I, W/I), Stern (I, WI), and Weiss (G) with 1%; Johnson (C) and "someone else" with <1%
  66. Democrats briefly held both of Pennsylvania's Senate seats from 2009 to 2011 when Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican to this seat, switched to the Democratic Party.

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick.
  2. Poll sponsored by Oz's campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign.
  4. Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign.
  5. Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign.
  6. Poll sponsored by pro-Lamb super PAC Penn Progress.
  7. Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign.
  8. This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  9. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Oz
  10. This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  11. This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  12. This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund
  13. Poll sponsored by Collective PAC.
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References

External links

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