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2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

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2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
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The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024,[2] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis.[3] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucuses were the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential nominating contest.

Quick facts 40 Republican National Convention delegates, Turnout ...
Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

The results were a landslide victory for Donald Trump, with his 30-point margin being the largest margin of victory ever for a non-incumbent in the Iowa Republican caucuses.[4] Trump won 20 delegates, Ron DeSantis won nine, Nikki Haley won eight, and Vivek Ramaswamy won three.[5] Trump also became the first Republican ever to win a contested Iowa caucus with a majority of the vote, and third person of either major political party to do so (the others being Tom Harkin in 1992, and Al Gore in 2000). Analysts described the results as establishing him as the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, with both DeSantis's and Haley's campaigns seen as heavily damaged.[6][7][8]

Trump also won 98 out of Iowa's 99 counties, losing Johnson County to Haley by a single vote.[9] Ramaswamy announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but retained his three delegates. Asa Hutchinson, who finished with less than 1% of the vote, dropped out the following day and endorsed Haley. DeSantis dropped out the following weekend and endorsed Trump.[10]

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Background and electorate

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History of the Iowa caucus

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for Republican presidential contenders.[11] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[12]

Republican electorate

It has been argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[12]

Commentators have noted in the 2010s the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives George W. Bush,[13] Mike Huckabee,[14] Rick Santorum,[15] and Ted Cruz in the 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[16][17]

In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[18] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no minimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.[19]

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Campaign developments

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In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[20] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[21][22]

Nikki Haley had held 22 events in Iowa by May 19, 2023.[23] Her campaign made ad buys of $10 million in Iowa and New Hampshire beginning in December 2023.[24] On December 8, Haley addressed a convention center conference where she stated her campaign had momentum and needed "to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win, necessarily, but I think that we have to have a good showing."[25]

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis held a pair of events in the state on March 10 and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[26] Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she would not have been elected without Trump's help.[27] Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis.[28] Between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties.[29] In December, DeSantis' wife, Casey DeSantis, was widely criticized for calling on Republicans from other states to participate in the Iowa caucuses.[30]

Asa Hutchinson focused most of his energy campaigning in the state, hoping to perform well and use that success as a springboard for the rest of his campaign.[31][32]

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Endorsements

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Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Ron DeSantis

Governors

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Nikki Haley

Former executive branch officials

State senators

State representatives

Mayors

Notable individuals

Asa Hutchinson

Newspapers

Vivek Ramaswamy

Former U.S. Representatives

State executive officials

State senators

Donald Trump

Former Executive Branch officials

Former U.S. Representatives

State Executive officials

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Declined to endorse

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Newspapers

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Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (13)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (8)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (11)
Thumb
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (27)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (15)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (7)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (14)
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Polling

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Local regression graph of all polls conducted since November 2022.

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
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Results

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Each candidate's vote share and 1st/2nd-place finisher in each county

Just minutes after the caucus events started at 7 pm local time, Trump was projected to win the most votes by the Associated Press.[129] Trump received 20 delegates, DeSantis nine, Haley eight, and Ramaswamy three.[130] Barring any shifts in votes after the conclusion of the Iowa Republican Party's ongoing recanvass of the caucus results,[131] Trump won all of Iowa's counties except for Johnson County, which he lost to Haley by one vote.[130]

DeSantis and Haley finished second and third place respectively.[132][133] Ramaswamy, who placed fourth, announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but will retain his three expected delegates. Hutchinson announced the suspension of his campaign the day after the caucus.[134] DeSantis, despite finishing in second place, announced the suspension of his campaign six days after the caucus.

The DeSantis campaign was highly critical of "media outlets" calling the results before the caucuses had closed.[135]

According to The Des Moines Register,[1] as well as The Hill[136] the turnout was reduced compared to the previous caucuses in 2020, due to the colder than normal weather.

More information Candidate, Votes ...
More information By county, County ...
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See also

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Iowa Republican caucuses, 2024.

Notes

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  1. [a]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. [b]
    Chris Christie 3.0%
    Ryan Binkley 1.5%
  3. [c]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. [d]
    Ryan Binkley with 1%; "None of these" with 2%
  5. [e]
    Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg with 0%
  6. [f]
    Ryan Binkley with 0%; "None of these" with 2%
  7. [g]
    "Someone else" with 2%
  8. [h]
    Ryan Binkley with 0%
  9. [i]
    The other percentages in this result were increased by redistributing Pence's supporters to their second-choice candidates in the poll
  10. [j]
    "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 0%
  11. [k]
    Perry Johnson with 1%
  12. [l]
    Ryan Binkley with 2%; Will Hurd and Perry Johnson with 0%
  13. [m]
    Will Hurd with 0%
  14. [n]
    Perry Johnson & Will Hurd with <1%
  15. [o]
    Perry Johnson with 1%; Ryan Binkley with and Will Hurd with 0%
  16. [p]
    Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson and "Other" with 1%; Asa Hutchinson and "None of the above" with <0.5%
  17. [q]
    Ryan Binkley with 1% and Will Hurd with 0%
  18. [r]
    Francis Suarez with 0%
  19. [s]
    Perry Johnson and Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  20. [t]
    Standard VI response
  21. [u]
    "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  22. [v]
    If Trump did not run in the caucuses
  23. [w]
    "Someone else" with 3%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  24. [x]
    "Someone else" with 2%; Will Hurd with 1%; Ryan Binkley and Francis Suarez with <1%
  25. [y]
    Will Hurd with 1%
  26. [z]
    Ryan Binkley and Perry Johnson with 1%; Will Hurd and Francis Suarez with 0%
  27. [aa]
    "Someone else" with <1%; Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  28. [ab]
    "Someone else" with 1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  29. [ac]
    Franciz Suarez at 1%; Will Hurd at less than 1%
  30. [ad]
    Francis Saurez with 0%
  31. [ae]
    Someone else with 3%
  32. [af]
    Greg Abbott with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%
  33. [ag]
    Mitt Romney with 3%; Rick Perry, Chris Sununu, Perry Johnson, Francis Suarez with 0%
  34. [ah]
    Someone else with 2%
  35. [ai]
    Mitt Romney with 4%, Liz Cheney with 1%, Chris Sununu, John Bolton and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  36. [aj]
    Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Mike Pompeo with 0%
  37. [ak]
    Perry Johnson with 1%
  38. [al]
    Perry Johnson with 4%
  39. [am]
    Kristi Noem with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%
  40. [an]
    Mike Pompeo with 3%; Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 6%
  41. [ao]
    Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  42. [ap]
    Liz Cheney and Ted Cruz with 3%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%
  43. [aq]
    Ted Cruz with 3%; Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Liz Cheney with 0%
  44. [ar]
    Kristi Noem with 3%; Ted Cruz with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  45. [as]
    Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio with 1%
  46. [at]
    Mitt Romney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 2%
  47. [au]
    Ted Cruz with 16%; Mitt Romney with 5%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register, NBC News & Mediacom Iowa
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by the Make America Great Again Inc. (Super Pac)
  4. [D]
    Poll sponsored by And To The Republic, a non-profit with ties to DeSantis
  5. [E]
    Poll sponsored by Citizens Awareness Project
  6. [F]
    Poll sponsored by Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC, which supports Trump
  7. [G]
    Poll sponsored by American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
  8. [H]
    Poll commissioned by Republican Main Street Partnership
  9. [I]
    Poll sponsored by American Greatness, which supports Trump
  10. [J]
    Poll sponsored by Trump campaign
  11. [K]
    Poll sponsored by Never Back Down PAC, which supports DeSantis.
  12. [L]
    Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  13. [M]
    Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
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References

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