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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

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For most of the race, Iowa was expected to be a safe red state.[2] A poll performed by Selzer and Co. and published by The Des Moines Register on November 2 claimed Harris to be up by 3%, leading some to predict a far closer race than initially expected.[3][4][5] In the event, Donald Trump won the state in a landslide, winning the state by 13.2 percentage points, the widest margin for any candidate since 1972.[6][7] Selzer retired from polling following the election, a decision she said she had made the year before.[8][9]

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Caucuses

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Democratic caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15. Voting on candidates was done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[10]

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Republican caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

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Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Haley
  •   30–40%
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Libertarian caucuses

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[13] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[14]

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General election

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Predictions

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Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

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Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

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Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

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Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

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Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

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Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

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Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

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Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

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Results

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By county

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.[53]

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Analysis

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An Upper Midwestern state previously considered a battleground and a bellwether state for decades, Iowa voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and is now considered a moderately red state at the federal and state levels. Republican Donald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 8.2% while losing nationally in 2020, despite polls indicating a close race. Biden became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (Governor Kim Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, and Secretary of State Paul Pate) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent Attorney General Tom Miller and 40-year incumbent Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (four-year incumbent Auditor Rob Sand) won by fewer than 3,000 votes, or 0.24%. Republicans also won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.[54][55]

Iowa handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 219,741 votes. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which Iowa voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election. Notably, Trump improved his margins in 98 of 99 counties and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.[56] Trump became the first Republican to win Scott County since Ronald Reagan in 1984. This is the first election since 1968 that Iowa voted to the right of Alaska.

See also

Notes

  1. While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. "Other" with 1%
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Not sure" with 3%; "Don't want to say" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  8. "Someone else" with 15%
  9. "Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  2. Poll sponsored by RealClearDefense
  3. Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
  5. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  6. Poll conducted for American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
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References

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