2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the 2024 presidential election and other elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He succeeded Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	73.73% (1.62 pp)
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 3,069,496 2,241,309 Percentage 54.90% 40.08%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Stein:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Robinson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%      No votes
Governor before election Roy Cooper Democratic Elected Governor Josh Stein Democratic

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.^[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since 2008 (Franklin), 2004 (Alamance, Brunswick, and Transylvania), and 1980 (Cabarrus, Henderson, and Jackson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a state Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1976 to not flip a county in the state.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state.^[2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections.^[3][4] According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by a 23% margin, which further contributed to Robinson's defeat.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.^[5][6]

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.^[6][7]

The Democratic nominee was Josh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. The Republican nominee was Mark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor.^[8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. Stein won 37 counties and Robinson won 63. Of the three gubernatorial races that went blue in 2024, North Carolina went bluest in its overall margin, even though the other two were significantly more Democratic states. ^[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–2025)^[8]

Eliminated in primary

• Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022^[10]
• Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief^[11]
• Michael R. Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023)^[12]
• Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate^[13]

Declined

• Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present)^[14] (endorsed Stein)^[8]
• Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2024)^[14] (endorsed Stein, ran for Attorney General)^[15]
• Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present)^[14] (endorsed Stein)^[8]
• Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present)^[14] (endorsed Stein)^[16]

Endorsements

Josh Stein

U.S. representatives

• G. K. Butterfield, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022)^[17]
• Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003)^[17]
• Valerie Foushee, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present)^[18]
• Jeff Jackson, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2025), Democratic nominee for Attorney General in 2024^[15]
• Kathy Manning, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–2025)^[19]
• Wiley Nickel, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–2025)^[15]
• Deborah Ross, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)^[20]

Statewide officials

• Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025)^[21]
• Jim Hunt, former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)^[16]
• Burley Mitchell, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999)^[22]

State legislators

• Robert Reives, minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)^[16]

Individuals

• Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)^[23]

Labor unions

• North Carolina AFL-CIO^[24]
• North Carolina Association of Educators^[25]

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[26]
• NextGen America PAC^[23]
• North Carolina League of Conservation Voters^[27]
• Reproductive Freedom for All^[28]
• Sierra Club^[29]

Newspapers

• The Charlotte Observer^[30] (Democratic primary only)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Chrelle Booker	Gary Foxx	Michael Morgan	Josh Stein	Marcus Williams	Other	Undecided
High Point University[31]	February 16–23, 2024	322 (LV)	± 6.0%	10%	10%	14%	57%	9%	–	–
Change Research (D)[32][A]	February 15–19, 2024	1,622 (LV)	± 2.6%	–	–	8%	49%	–	4%[b]	39%
East Carolina University[33]	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (RV)	± 3.3%	2%	2%	7%	57%	3%	–	29%
Meredith College[34]	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	5%	3%	4%	31%	2%	4%[c]	51%
Public Policy Polling (D)[35]	December 15–16, 2023	556 (LV)	± 4.2%	3%	1%	5%	56%	4%	–	32%
	December 15, 2023	Foxx joins the race
	December 14, 2023	Williams joins the race
	November 2, 2023	Booker joins the race
Meredith College[36]	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	–	11%	38%	–	7%[d]	44%
Meredith College[37]	September 16–19, 2023	308 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	–	11%	33%	–	10%[e]	46%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mandy Cohen	Jeff Jackson	Josh Stein	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	± 4.0%	18%	12%	22%	9%[f]	39%

Results

Results by county:

Stein

•   Stein—80–90%
•   Stein—70–80%
•   Stein—60–70%
•   Stein—50–60%
•   Stein—40–50%
•   Stein—30–40%

Morgan

•   Morgan—50–60%
•   Morgan—40–50%

Democratic primary results^[39]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Josh Stein	479,026	69.60%
	Democratic	Michael R. Morgan	98,627	14.33%
	Democratic	Chrelle Booker	46,045	6.69%
	Democratic	Marcus Williams	39,257	5.70%
	Democratic	Gary Foxx	25,283	3.67%
Total votes			688,238	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–2025)^[40]

Eliminated in primary

• Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–2025)^[41]
• Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008^[42]

Withdrawn

• Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive (ran for Secretary of State)^[43]
• Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)^[44]
• Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020^[45]

Declined

• Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present)^[14][46] (endorsed Graham)^[47]

Endorsements

Dale Folwell

Council of State officials

• James G. Martin, former Governor of North Carolina (1985–1993)^[48]

Newspapers

• The Charlotte Observer^[30] (Republican primary only)

Bill Graham

U.S. senators

• Thom Tillis, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2015–present)^[47]

Mark Robinson

Executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017–2021)^[49]

U.S. senators

• Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)^[50]

U.S. representatives

• Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 8th congressional district (2019–2025), Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2024^[40]

State senators

• Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate (2011–present) from the 26th district (2001–present)^[51]
• Danny Britt, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present)^[40]

State representatives

• Neal Jackson, state representative from the 78th district (2023–present)^[51]
• Charlie Miller, state representative from the 19th district (2021–present)^[40]

Organizations

• National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund^[52]
• Conservative Political Action Committee^[53]

Newspapers

• Rhino Times^[54]

Debate

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Republican	Republican
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Dale Folwell	Mark Walker	Jesse Thomas
1	September 12, 2023	Wake County Republican Party	Bill LuMaye	YouTube	P	P	P

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Dale Folwell	Bill Graham	Mark Robinson	Jesse Thomas	Mark Walker	Andy Wells	Other	Undecided
High Point University[31]	February 16–23, 2024	394 (LV)	± 6.0%	17%	33%	51%	9%	–	–	–	–
Capen Analytics (R)[55]	February 21, 2024	12,580 (LV)	± 5.0%	29%	18%	53%	–	–	–	–	–
Change Research (D)[32][A]	February 15–19, 2024	1,622 (LV)	± 2.6%	9%	9%	57%	–	–	–	3%[g]	22%
East Carolina University[33]	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (RV)	± 3.3%	7%	13%	53%	–	–	–	–	27%
Meredith College[34]	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	4%	9%	34%	–	–	–	10%[e]	42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[56]	January 5–6, 2024	619 (LV)	± 3.9%	7%	15%	55%	–	–	–	–	24%
	December 16, 2023	Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University[57]	November 29 – December 1, 2023	445 (LV)	± 5.4%	7%	8%	34%	–	–	3%	–	49%
	November 2, 2023	Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College[36]	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	3%	5%	41%	2%	–	1%	6%[h]	42%
	October 25, 2023	Walker withdraws from the race
	October 18, 2023	Graham joins the race
Cygnal (R)[58][B]	October 8–9, 2023	600 (LV)	± 3.9%	5%	–	49%	1%	4%	1%	–	41%
Meredith College[37]	September 16–19, 2023	350 (RV)	± 3.5%	3%	–	34%	3%	7%	3%	6%[h]	44%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Dale Folwell	Pat McCrory	Mark Robinson	Thom Tillis	Steve Troxler	Mark Walker	Other	Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59]	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	4%	–	44%	–	–	7%	7%[d]	38%
SurveyUSA[60][B]	April 25–29, 2023	707 (LV)	± 4.4%	4%	–	43%	–	9%	8%	–	37%
Differentiators (R)[61]	December 12, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	6%	–	60%	–	–	–	–	34%
				–	21%	60%	–	–	–	–	19%
				–	–	58%	–	–	8%	–	34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	± 4.0%	4%	–	54%	20%	–	–	5%[i]	17%

Results

Results by county:

Robinson

•   Robinson—80–90%
•   Robinson—70–80%
•   Robinson—60–70%
•   Robinson—50–60%
•   Robinson—40–50%

Republican primary results^[39]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mark Robinson	666,504	64.83%
	Republican	Dale Folwell	196,955	19.16%
	Republican	Bill Graham	164,572	16.01%
Total votes			1,028,031	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party^[62]

Eliminated in primary

• Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022^[63]

Results

Results by county:

  Ross

•   Ross—100%
•   Ross—80–90%
•   Ross—70–80%
•   Ross—60–70%
•   Ross—50–60%

  Bray

•   Bray—100%
•   Bray—70–80%
•   Bray—60–70%
•   Bray—50–60%

  Tie

•   Tie—50%

Libertarian primary results^[39]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Mike Ross	2,910	59.45%
	Libertarian	Shannon Bray	1,985	40.55%
Total votes			4,895	100.0%

Green Party

Nominee

• Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party^[11]

Constitution Party

Nominee

• Vinny Smith, treasurer of the North Carolina Constitution Party^[64]

General election

Campaign

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.^[65] Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.^[66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.^[67]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.^[68][69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.^[70] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance.^[71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.^[72] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".^[69] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts".^[73] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.^[74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.^[75]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.^{[76][9][77][78]}

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[77]	Likely D	September 20, 2024
Inside Elections[79]	Likely D	September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80]	Likely D	September 19, 2024
RCP[81]	Likely D	September 28, 2024
Fox News[82]	Likely D	September 25, 2024
Elections Daily[83]	Safe D	September 19, 2024
CNalysis[78]	Solid D	October 15, 2024
Split Ticket[84]	Safe D	October 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Josh Stein (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)^[85]

U.S. representatives

• Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)^[86]

Statewide officials

• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)^[87]
• Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland (2023–present)^[88]
• Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)^[89]

State senators

• Jim Davis, former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican)^[90]
• Richard Stevens, former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican)^[90]

State representatives

• Chuck McGrady, former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican)^[90]
• Charles Neely, former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican)^[90]
• Garland Pierce, state representative from the 48th district (2005–present)^[91]

Organizations

• Giffords^[86]
• Human Rights Campaign^[92]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[93]

Individuals

• Martin Luther King III, activist^[94]

Mark Robinson (R)

Statewide officials

• Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present)^[95]
• Bill Lee, Governor of Tennessee (2019–present)^[96]
• Henry McMaster, Governor of South Carolina (2017–present)^[97]
• Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)^[98]

Organizations

• Republicans for National Renewal^[99]
• Republican Governors Association^[100]

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

• Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–2025) (Republican)^[101]
• Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican)^[102]

U.S. senators

• Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican)^[102]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Josh Stein (D)	$84,064,178	$82,450,647	$1,901,820
Mark Robinson (R)	$20,012,299	$19,799,956	$250,001
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[103]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Josh Stein (D)	Mark Robinson (R)	Undecided [j]	Margin
RealClearPolitics[104]	October 16 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	53.1%	38.8%	8.1%	Stein +14.3%
270ToWin[105]	October 24 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	53.1%	38.0%	8.9%	Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ[106]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	53.4%	38.8%	7.8%	Stein +14.6%
Average			53.2%	38.5%	8.2%	Stein +14.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Josh Stein (D)	Mark Robinson (R)	Other	Undecided
AtlasIntel[107]	November 3–4, 2024	1,219 (LV)	± 3.0%	54%	38%	4%[k]	4%
AtlasIntel[108]	November 1–2, 2024	1,310 (LV)	± 3.0%	52%	41%	4%[k]	3%
Emerson College[109][C]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	860 (LV)	± 3.3%	52%	40%	4%	4%
New York Times/Siena College[110]	October 28 – November 2, 2024	1,010 (LV)	± 3.6%	56%	38%	–	5%
		1,010 (RV)	± 3.6%	56%	36%	–	7%
Morning Consult[111]	October 23 – November 1, 2024	1,056 (LV)	± 3.0%	52%	36%	–	12%
ActiVote[112]	October 17–31, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	58%	42%	–	–
AtlasIntel[113]	October 27–30, 2024	1,373 (LV)	± 3.0%	52%	42%	4%[k]	2%
AtlasIntel[114]	October 25–29, 2024	1,665 (LV)	± 3.0%	54%	39%	4%[k]	4%
East Carolina University[115]	October 24–29, 2024	1,250 (LV)	± 3.0%	55%	40%	5%[l]	–
Fox News[116]	October 24–28, 2024	872 (LV)	± 3.0%	57%	41%	–	2%
		1,113 (RV)	± 3.0%	59%	38%	1%	2%
CNN/SSRS[117]	October 23–28, 2024	750 (LV)	± 4.5%	53%	37%	10%[m]	1%
SurveyUSA[118][D]	October 23–26, 2024	853 (LV)	± 4.1%	52%	37%	1%	10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[119]	October 16–23, 2024	650 (LV)	± 4.2%	48%	36%	3%[n]	12%
Emerson College[120]	October 21–22, 2024	950 (LV)	± 3.1%	51%	39%	4%[c]	6%
Marist College[121]	October 17–22, 2024	1,226 (LV)	± 3.6%	55%	41%	3%[o]	2%
		1,410 (RV)	± 3.3%	55%	40%	3%[o]	2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[122][E]	October 20–21, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	55%	40%	–	5%
SurveyUSA[123][F]	October 17–20, 2024	1,164 (RV)	± 3.7%	50%	34%	–	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124][G]	October 16–18, 2024	843 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	37%	6%[p]	10%
AtlasIntel[125]	October 12–17, 2024	1,674 (LV)	± 2.0%	54%	39%	3%[q]	4%
Elon University/YouGov[126]	October 10–17, 2024	800 (RV)	± 4.0%	52%	31%	7%[r]	10%
Morning Consult[111]	October 6–15, 2024	1,072 (LV)	± 3.0%	54%	32%	4%	10%
Cygnal (R)[127][H]	October 12–14, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	36%	4%[s]	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128][G]	October 12–14, 2024	620 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	38%	8%[t]	9%
Quinnipiac University[129]	October 10–14, 2024	1,031 (LV)	± 3.1%	54%	42%	2%[u]	2%
				52%	40%	5%[v]	2%
Emerson College[130][I]	October 5–8, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	34%	5%[i]	11%
ActiVote[131]	September 5 – October 5, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	56.5%	43.5%	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132][G]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	753 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	36%	4%[w]	14%
Quinnipiac University[133]	September 25–29, 2024	953 (LV)	± 3.2%	53%	41%	2%[x]	4%
				52%	39%	6%[y]	3%
The Washington Post[134]	September 25–29, 2024	1,001 (LV)	± 3.5%	54%	38%	2%[z]	6%
		1,001 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	38%	2%[z]	7%
High Point University[135]	September 20–29, 2024	589 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	34%	3%	11%
		814 (RV)	± 3.4%	51%	32%	3%	14%
Emerson College[136][J]	September 27–28, 2024	850 (LV)	± 3.3%	52%	33%	4%[c]	12%
RMG Research[137][K]	September 25–27, 2024	780 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%[aa]	38%	1%[ab]	8%
				50%	36%	5%[ac]	9%
East Carolina University[138]	September 23–26, 2024	1,005 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	33%	5%[ad]	13%
AtlasIntel[139]	September 20–25, 2024	1,173 (LV)	± 3.0%	54%	38%	3%[ae]	5%
CNN/SSRS[140]	September 20–25, 2024	931 (LV)	± 3.9%	53%	36%	11%[af]	–
BSG (R)/Global Strategy Group (D)[141][L]	September 19–25, 2024	411 (LV)	–	53%	33%	7%[ag]	8%
				59%	35%	–	6%
Fox News[142]	September 20–24, 2024	787 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	41%	1%[ah]	3%
		991 (RV)	± 3.0%	56%	40%	2%[ai]	3%
Marist College[143]	September 19–24, 2024	1,507 (RV)	± 3.5%	54%	42%	1%[aj]	3%
		1,348 (LV)	± 3.7%	54%	43%	1%[aj]	2%
September 19, 2024	CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
New York Times/Siena College[144]	September 17–21, 2024	682 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	37%	–	16%
		682 (RV)	± 4.2%	47%	36%	–	17%
Meredith College[145]	September 18–20, 2024	802 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	40%	5%[ak]	9%
Victory Insights (R)[146]	September 16–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	42%	–	11%
Emerson College[147][I]	September 15–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	40%	2%[al]	10%
Morning Consult[111]	September 11–18, 2024	1,314 (LV)	± 2.7%	50%	37%	1%	12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[148][M]	September 11–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	42%	–	6%
Cygnal (R)[149][H]	September 15–16, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	39%	2%[am]	13%
Elon University/YouGov[150]	September 4–13, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.74%	49%	35%	3%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151][G]	September 6–9, 2024	495 (LV)	± 3.8%	42%	33%	3%[an]	23%
Quinnipiac University[152]	September 4–8, 2024	940 (LV)	± 3.2%	51%	41%	5%[ao]	4%
Morning Consult[111]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	1,369 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	37%	2%[al]	11%
SurveyUSA[153][D]	September 4–7, 2024	676 (LV)	± 4.9%	51%	37%	–	12%
Florida Atlantic University/ Mainstreet Research[154]	September 5–6, 2024	692 (RV)	± 3.7%	48%	38%	–	14%
		619 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	39%	–	11%
East Carolina University[155]	August 26–28, 2024	920 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	41%	1%[ap]	11%
Emerson College[156][I]	August 25–28, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	41%	3%[aq]	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157][G]	August 25–28, 2024	812 (LV)	± 3.18%	44%	40%	4%[ar]	13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[158][E]	August 26–27, 2024	612 (LV)	–	47%	37%	–	16%
Fox News[159]	August 23–26, 2024	1,026 (RV)	± 3.0%	54%	43%	2%[ai]	1%
ActiVote[160]	July 26 – August 26, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	54%	46%	–	–
SurveyUSA[161][F]	August 19–21, 2024	1,053 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	34%	–	18%
		941 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	36%	–	14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162][G]	August 12–15, 2024	601 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	39%	3%[as]	13%
The New York Times/Siena College[163]	August 9–14, 2024	655 (RV)	± 4.2%	48%	38%	–	14%
		655 (LV)	± 4.2%	49%	39%	–	12%
YouGov Blue (D)[164][A]	August 5–9, 2024	802 (RV)	± 3.9%	46%	36%	6%[at]	13%
Cygnal (R)[165]	August 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	38%	4%[au]	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	714 (LV)	–	43%	38%	3%[av]	16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[167]	July 22–24, 2024	586 (LV)	–	38%	34%	5%[aw]	23%
July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[168][N]	July 19–20, 2024	573 (RV)	–	48%	42%	–	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169][G]	July 16–18, 2024	461 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	36%	4%[ax]	23%
Expedition Strategies[170][O]	June 24 – July 8, 2024	284 (LV)	–	48%	41%	–	11%
Spry Strategies (R)[171]	June 7–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	43%	–	18%
East Carolina University[172]	May 31 – June 3, 2024	1,332 (LV)	± 3.1%	44%	43%	–	13%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[173][P]	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	44%	–	14%
Change Research (D)[174][A]	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	44%	43%	–	13%
High Point University[175]	May 2–9, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.2%	34%	39%	–	27%
		1,002 (A)	± 3.2%	30%	35%	–	35%
Cygnal (R)[176][H]	May 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	39%	5%[ay]	17%
Emerson College[177]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	42%	5%[i]	12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[178][Q]	April 25–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	37%	6%[az]	13%
Meredith College[179]	April 11–17, 2024	711 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	36%	–	20%
Cygnal (R)[180][H]	April 7–8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	38%	40%	–	18%
Quinnipiac University[181]	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	52%	44%	2%[x]	3%
				48%	41%	7%[ba]	3%
High Point University[182]	March 22–30, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	37%	34%	–	29%
Marist College[183]	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	49%	47%	–	4%
SurveyUSA[184][D]	March 3–9, 2024	598 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	42%	–	14%
Cygnal (R)[185][B]	March 6–7, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	44%	–	17%
Change Research (D)[32][A]	February 15–19, 2024	1,622 (LV)	± 2.6%	42%	43%	–	15%
East Carolina University[33]	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (RV)	± 3.3%	41%	41%	–	14%
Meredith College[34]	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	35%	–	17%
East Carolina University[57]	November 29 – December 1, 2023	915 (RV)	± 3.8%	40%	44%	–	16%
Meredith College[36]	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	38%	36%	–	19%
Change Research (D)[186][A]	September 1–5, 2023	914 (LV)	± 3.6%	38%	42%	–	20%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59]	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	38%	41%	–	21%
Cygnal (R)[187][B]	May 12–23, 2023	610 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	42%	–	18%
Change Research (D)[188][A]	May 5–8, 2023	802 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	46%	1%[ab]	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[189][A]	March 2–3, 2023	704 (RV)	± 3.7%	42%	44%	–	14%
Differentiator Data (R)[190][R]	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	42%	42%	–	16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	42%	–	14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[191][S]	May 12–16, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	–	10%

Hypothetical polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Josh Stein (D)	Dale Folwell (R)	Undecided
East Carolina University[33]	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (RV)	± 3.3%	42%	31%	27%
East Carolina University[57]	November 29 – December 1, 2023	915 (RV)	± 3.8%	40%	38%	22%
Cygnal (R)[187][B]	May 12–23, 2023	610 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	34%	27%

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Josh Stein (D)	Bill Graham (R)	Undecided
East Carolina University[33]	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (RV)	± 3.3%	40%	35%	25%
East Carolina University[57]	November 29 – December 1, 2023	915 (RV)	± 3.8%	42%	39%	19%

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Josh Stein (D)	Mark Walker (R)	Undecided
Cygnal (R)[187][B]	May 12–23, 2023	610 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	37%	24%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
High Point University[31]	February 16–23, 2024	753 (LV)	± 3.9%	46%	45%	2%[bb]	7%

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic—+15-20%
•   Democratic—+10-15%
•   Democratic—+5-10%
•   Democratic—+<5%
•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%

Trend by county

Legend

•   Democratic—+15-20%
•   Democratic—+10-15%
•   Democratic—+5-10%
•   Democratic—+<5%
•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%
•   Republican—+10-15%

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election^[192]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Josh Stein	3,069,496	54.90%	+3.38%
	Republican	Mark Robinson	2,241,309	40.08%	–6.93%
	Libertarian	Mike Ross	176,392	3.15%	+2.05%
	Constitution	Vinny Smith	54,738	0.98%	+0.60%
	Green	Wayne Turner	49,612	0.89%	N/A
Total votes			5,591,547	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By congressional district

Stein won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including eight that elected Republican representatives, and nine that voted for Donald Trump.^[193]

District	Stein	Robinson	Representative	Presidential Result
1st	53%	44%	Don Davis	Trump
2nd	73%	21%	Deborah Ross	Harris
3rd	46%	49%	Greg Murphy	Trump
4th	78%	18%	Valerie Foushee	Harris
5th	48%	47%	Virginia Foxx	Trump
6th	49%	46%	Addison McDowell	Trump
7th	51%	43%	David Rouzer	Trump
8th	47%	48%	Mark Harris	Trump
9th	49%	46%	Richard Hudson	Trump
10th	48%	46%	Pat Harrigan	Trump
11th	51%	44%	Chuck Edwards	Trump
12th	77%	18%	Alma Adams	Harris
13th	49%	45%	Brad Knott	Trump
14th	49%	45%	Tim Moore	Trump

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Alamance (largest city: Burlington)
• Brunswick (largest city: Leland)
• Cabarrus (largest city: Concord)
• Franklin (largest city: Louisburg)
• Henderson (largest city: Hendersonville)
• Jackson (largest city: Cullowhee)
• Lee (largest city: Sanford)
• Transylvania (largest city: Brevard)

Voter demographics

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN)^[194]

Demographic subgroup	Stein	Robinson	% of total vote
Ideology
Liberals	96	2	21
Moderates	71	23	40
Conservatives	15	80	39
Party
Democrats	96	2	32
Republicans	13	83	34
Independents	58	35	35
Gender
Men	48	47	48
Women	61	34	52
Age
18–24 years old	59	30	9
25–29 years old	63	32	5
30–39 years old	59	38	15
40–49 years old	58	36	16
50–64 years old	49	47	29
65 and older	54	42	25
Race/ethnicity
White	46	49	69
Black	85	8	19
Latino	53	39	8
Asian	N/A	N/A	1
Other	N/A	N/A	2
Gender by race
White men	42	55	34
White women	51	44	36
Black men	75	13	8
Black women	93	4	11
Latino men	39	51	4
Latino women	67	26	4
Other racial/ethnic groups	55	41	4
White born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes	22	74	31
No	71	24	69
Education
Never attended college	42	50	16
Some college education	54	42	25
Associate degree	43	52	17
Bachelor's degree	64	33	25
Postgraduate	69	26	16
Education by race
White college graduates	62	34	31
White no college degree	34	62	38
Non-white college graduates	76	21	10
Non-white no college degree	72	19	20
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees	67	28	16
White women without college degrees	38	58	20
White men with college degrees	57	40	15
White men without college degrees	29	67	19
Non-white	74	20	31
Area type
Urban	74	20	28
Suburban	48	47	53
Rural	45	49	20

See also

• 2024 North Carolina elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Would not vote" with 4%
3. "Someone else" with 4%
4. "Someone else" with 7%
5. "Someone else" with 10%
6. "Someone else" with 9%
7. "Would not vote" with 3%
8. "Someone else" with 6%
9. "Someone else" with 5%
10. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
11. "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
12. Ross (L) with 3%
13. "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
14. Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
15. "Another party's candidate" with 3%
16. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
17. "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
18. "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
19. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
20. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
21. "Refused" with 2%
22. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
23. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
24. "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
25. Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
26. "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
27. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
28. "Would not vote" with 1%
29. "Some other candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%
30. Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
31. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
32. "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
33. "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
34. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
35. "Other" with 1% and "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
36. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
37. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
38. "Someone else" with 2%
39. Ross (L) with 2%
40. Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
41. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
42. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
43. "Someone else" with 3%
44. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
45. Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
46. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
47. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
48. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
49. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
50. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
51. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
52. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
53. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
54. "Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
2. Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
3. Poll sponsored by Nexstar
4. Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
5. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
6. Poll sponsored by High Point University
7. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
8. Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
9. Poll sponsored by The Hill
10. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
11. Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
12. Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
13. Poll sponsored by AARP
14. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
15. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
16. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
17. Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
18. This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
19. This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform