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2024 Texas Senate election

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2024 Texas Senate election
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Elections to the Texas Senate were held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections were held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections. Republicans won eight of the fifteen seats up for election, flipping one from the Democrats. Due to the high number of uncontested seats, however, Democratic candidates received more votes statewide than Republican candidates.

Quick Facts 15 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate 16 seats needed for a majority, Majority party ...

Primary elections were held on March 5, 2024, and any necessary runoffs were held on May 28.[1]

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Partisan background

In the 2020 presidential election in Texas, Republican Donald Trump won 19 State Senate districts, while Democrat Joe Biden won 12 districts.[2] In the 2024 presidential election in Texas, Donald Trump won 2 more districts than he did in 2020 with 21, while Democrat Kamala Harris won 10 districts. In the aftermath of the 2024 election, Senate district 20 flipped to Trump by 4.3%, however incumbent Democratic State Senator Juan Hinojosa held the seat in a uncontested general election.

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2020 Election results
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2024 Election results
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Background

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Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to a 19–12 margin in the 2022 elections, picking up a seat anchored in Tarrant County that had been redrawn to significantly favor them but failing to win a competitive seat in the Rio Grande Valley.[3]

During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students.[4][5][6] Republican infighting in the House led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session despite the Senate easily passing it. Governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed.[7] Efforts to legalize online sports betting and casino gambling found a resurgence in the House late in the session, with a bill to legalize online sports betting passing the House.[8] Neither proposal received any hearings in the Senate due to opposition from lieutenant governor Dan Patrick.[9][10]

On May 27, 2023, the House voted 121–23 to impeach attorney general Ken Paxton after a House committee found that he had used taxpayer funds to settle a legal dispute.[11][12][13] The Senate voted to acquit him of all charges in September 2023.[14]

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Retirements

One incumbent did not seek re-election.

Republicans

  1. District 30: Drew Springer is retiring.[15]

Incumbents defeated

In the general election

Democrats

  1. District 27: Morgan LaMantia lost to Adam Hinojosa.[16]

Special elections

  1. District 15: John Whitmire (D) was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from the Senate on December 31, 2023.[17] Molly Cook won the special election held on May 4, 2024.[18][19]
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Campaign

Democrat Nathan Johnson was the only incumbent senator being challenged in the primary elections.[21] Republican Drew Springer's retirement and Democrat John Whitmire's resignation created open races for their seats.[15][17] Democrat Morgan LaMantia was the only senator expected to face a competitive general election.[22]

Predictions

Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.

Statewide

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Competitive districts

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Summary of results by district

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† - Incumbent not seeking re-election

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Detailed results

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District 6District 7District 8District 10District 12District 14District 15District 16District 17District 20District 23District 25District 27District 29District 30

District 6

Incumbent Democrat Carol Alvarado is running for re-election.

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District 7

Incumbent Republican Paul Bettencourt is running for re-election.

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District 8

Incumbent Republican Angela Paxton is running for re-election.

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District 10

Incumbent Republican Phil King is running for re-election.

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District 12

Incumbent Republican Tan Parker is running for re-election.

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District 14

Incumbent Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is running for re-election unopposed.

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District 15

Former Senator, Democrat John Whitmire was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from this seat, creating a vacancy.[17] A special election to fill his unexpired term was held on May 4, 2024, with Molly Cook winning.[18] Cook narrowly won the Democratic primary runoff for a full term on May 28.[27]

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District 16

Incumbent Democrat Nathan M. Johnson is running for re-election. He defeated state representative Victoria Neave in the Democratic primary and is unopposed in the general election.[21]

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District 17

Incumbent Republican Joan Huffman is running for re-election.

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District 20

Incumbent Democrat Juan Hinojosa is running for re-election unopposed.

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District 23

Incumbent Democrat Royce West is running for re-election unopposed.

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District 25

Incumbent Republican Donna Campbell is running for re-election.

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District 27

Incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia is running for re-election. She faces a rematch against Republican Adam Hinojosa, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022.[28][29] This race is the only one in the state expected to have a competitive general election.[22] Hinojosa has been endorsed by former Democratic senator Eddie Lucio Jr., who held the seat before LaMantia, citing Hinojosa's pro-life position on abortion.[30]

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District 29

Incumbent Democrat Cesar Blanco is running for re-election unopposed.

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District 30

Incumbent Republican Drew Springer is retiring.[15]

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Notes

  1. CNalysis has two separate sets of predictions: Classic (Analyst ratings only), and Expanded (Classic alongside recent statewide election results). This table uses the Classic set.
  2. Elected in a May 4, 2024, special election to fill incumbent vacancy left by Democrat John Whitmire, who resigned to become Mayor of Houston on December 31, 2023.

See also

References

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