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2024 United States Senate election in Texas

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2024 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic challenger and U.S. Representative Colin Allred.[1][2][3] The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.[4]

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Early polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.49 points, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties.[5][6] Cruz won a slight majority of Hispanic and Latino voters in the election.

Colin Allred overperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election in Texas by 5.5 points, receiving nearly 200,000 votes more than her and performed much better relatively in the largely Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.[7][8]

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Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994.[9] Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke.[10][11] The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory.[12][9] This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive.[13]

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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree[15]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney[15]

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

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Results by county:
  Cruz
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner[34][15]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred

US executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Allred
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Gutierrez
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gonzalez
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   >90%
  Gomez
  •   20–30%
  Tied
  No Votes
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Libertarian convention

Nominee

Write-in candidates

Declared

  • Tracy Andrus, director of the Lee P. Brown Criminal Justice Institute at Wiley University[89]
  • Analisa Roche, math tutor[90]

General election

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Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Colin Allred (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024, Candidate ...

Debate

More information No., Date ...

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez

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Results

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cruz won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[183]

By county

More information County, Ted Cruz Republican ...

Analysis

Cruz won a majority of Hispanic and Latino voters, particularly those living on the border with Mexico who had traditionally supported Democratic candidates; the NBC News exit poll showed 52% of Latinos supported Cruz, a 17-point increase from 2018.[185]

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See also

Notes

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  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
  3. $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
  4. Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
  5. Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
  6. Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
  7. Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. John Love with 4%
  10. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. Brown (L) with 3%
  12. Brown (L) with 4%
  13. Brown (L) with 1%
  14. Brown (L) with 6%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  16. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  17. "Wouldn't vote" and "Someone else" with 2%
  18. "Someone else" with 4%; Brown (L) with 2%
  19. Brown (L) with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" with 3%
  21. Brown (L) with 5%; "Refused" with 2%
  22. Brown (L) with 8%
  23. Brown (L) with 3%; Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
  24. "Someone else" with 15%
  25. "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  26. Libertarian Party candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  27. "Someone else" with 16%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  2. Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  3. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  5. Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign
  6. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  7. Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  8. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  9. Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights, which supports Republican candidates
  10. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which supports Republican candidates
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References

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