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2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

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2024 United States presidential election in Idaho
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

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Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solid red state; a sparsely populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly White populace and an evangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state after Harry Truman in 1948 being landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.

As expected, Republican Donald Trump overwhelmingly won Idaho, taking 66.9% of the vote to Democrat Kamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.8% in 2020 and his 31.8% in 2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho since George W. Bush's 38.1% in 2004. Idaho was Trump's third strongest state nationwide, only behind West Virginia and neighboring Wyoming.

This was the first election in which Teton County, Idaho voted for a Democrat who lost the presidential election.

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Primary elections

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The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-run primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-run primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president.[3]

Republican primary

The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

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Democratic caucuses

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

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General election

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Candidates

The official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[7]

Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominate Joel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[8]

Predictions

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Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

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Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

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Results

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By county

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.[23]

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Analysis

Trump flipped the Panhandle county of Latah, anchored by the college town of Moscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% margin in 2000. He also became the first Republican to win the White House without winning Teton County since it was established in 1915. He also recovered his margins in larger urban areas, winning Ada County — home to the state capital and largest city Boise — by a double-digit margin for the first time in his electoral history.

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  3. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
  4. Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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