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Early general elections will be held in the Netherlands on 29 October 2025 to elect the members of the House of Representatives.[1] The elections had been expected to be held in 2028, but a snap election was called after the Schoof cabinet collapsed due to the Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrawing from the coalition.

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Background

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The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. The Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time and then formed a coalition with the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024. On 3 June 2025, PVV left the coalition due to disagreements over asylum policy,[2] leading to Schoof submitting the resignation of the cabinet.[3]

A snap election was called for 29 October 2025;[4] originally, the next general election was scheduled for 15 March 2028.[5] On 23 August 2025, NSC also left the coalition, citing disagreements over sanctions against Israel for the Gaza war.[6] On 12 June 2025, the Labour Party and GroenLinks agreed to participate with one shared candidate list again and to merge their parties in 2026.[7]

Compared to the 2023 election, three incumbent parliamentary parties have had a change in their lead candidate. Jimmy Dijk replaced Lilian Marijnissen as Socialist Party (SP) leader within a month after the election,[8] Thierry Baudet stepped down for Lidewij de Vos to be the lead candidate of Forum for Democracy (FvD),[9] and Eddy van Hijum was chosen as lead candidate of NSC after Pieter Omtzigt and Nicolien van Vroonhoven stepped down.[10]

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Electoral system

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected through semi-open lists under proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[11]

Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[12][13]

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Parties and lead candidates

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Campaign

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According to polls, the housing market, immigration, and healthcare were the main topics in the months prior to the election.[14][15][16] GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), the Socialist Party (SP), the Christian Union (CU), and Volt included the reduction of the mortgage interest deduction in their party manifestos. That was opposed by the Party for Freedom (PVV), the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC), the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), and Forum for Democracy (FvD).[17]

According to the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, GL/PvdA and BBB wanted to keep the halving of the deductible for healthcare, whereas VVD, CDA, Volt, and JA21 wanted to increase it to € 440. GL/PvdA, D66, CU, and Volt wanted more wealth tax and profit tax, in contrast to VVD, BBB, and JA21, all of which did not want that and wanted to cut back on development aid. VVD, NSC, and the Reformed Political Party (SGP) did not want additional measures to reach climate goals, and BBB and JA21 wanted to emit more CO2.[18]

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Wilders attending a protest against an asylum seeker center in Helmond in July 2025

PVV leader Geert Wilders has attended local protests against asylum seeker centers in Helmond and Zwolle, urging municipalities to defy the Dispersal Act, and making these protests a central part of his election campaign.[19] This approach drew criticism from local politicians and the Association of Netherlands Municipalities, who accused Wilders of improper interference in local politics and of inciting unnecessary fear and division.[20] In August 2025, a discrimination hotline and Muslim organisations filed complaints against Wilders over a tweet comparing a young blonde woman with PVV and an older woman wearing a headscarf with the Labour Party (PvdA). The tweet drew a record amount of complaints to the hotline and was compared to Nazi propaganda.[21]

A ban against political advertisement on platforms of Meta started on 6 October 2025. In the month leading up to the ban, FvD and D66 spent the most money on advertisements on Facebook and Instagram.[22] On 10 October, Wilders was named as a target of a terror cell, for which three men were arrested a day earlier. The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism did not expect any remaining threat; however, citing bad feelings, Wilders suspended his campaign.[23][24] On 15 October, he resumed his campaign.[25]

Possible coalitions

Multiple parties, including GL/PvdA, VVD, and CDA, stated they would not want to form a government with PVV. Wilders stated he wanted to govern, possibly in a minority government.[26] GL/PvdA and VVD both stated they would rather not govern with each other but did not rule out working together in a government.[27] VVD preferred a centre-right coalition that included D66, BBB, CDA, and JA21, while D66 opposed any right-wing coalition and instead favored a national unity government, involving both left-wing and right-wing parties.[28] JA21 did not rule out any party to govern with, although party leader Joost Eerdmans stated he did not see JA21 in a cabinet with GL/PvdA or D66.[29]

Debates

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Opinion polls

After rising in the polls in the first months after the 2023 Dutch general election, the Party for Freedom (PVV) has declined from March 2024 onwards; however, it has continued to lead. GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA) has consistently polled in second place, between 22 and 30 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) have consistently risen in the polls, at first at the expense of New Social Contract (NSC) and later of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).[50][51] In the final months before the election, JA21 also rose significantly in the polls.

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References

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