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2025 Taiwanese referendum

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A national referendum is scheduled in Taiwan for 23 August 2025. Backed by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), the Legislative Yuan considered four referendum proposals. Only one proposal, on the decommissioning of the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant's second reactor, was approved by the Central Election Commission.

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Background

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In early March 2025, the Kuomintang (KMT) began considering referendum proposals in response to the 2025 Taiwanese mass electoral recall campaigns.[2][3] Topics considered for referendums included capital punishment, which had been subject to a Constitutional Court hearing the previous year, and the use of military courts,[4][5] which President Lai Ching-te suggested reinstating as a result of increased infiltration attempts by China.[6]

On 17 March 2025, the Kuomintang started campaigning for referendums on "opposing the abolition of the death penalty" and "opposing martial law" to be held.[7] Both proposals made it through a second reading without review by a Legislative Yuan committee.[8] After the bills were advanced, the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) caucus leader Rosalia Wu stated that the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) had conducted a "nighttime raid" instead of utilizing proper legislative procedures, and the DPP organized a sit-in within the legislature.[9][10] Shortly thereafter, the Central Election Commission (CEC) stated that the issues needed "collective consideration and review from multiple perspectives".[11] Despite continued protests from Democratic Progressive Party legislators,[12][13] both proposals were formally placed on the Legislative Yuan's agenda for 16 May 2025,[14] and the referendum pertaining to the death penalty was passed without committee review,[15][16] while a vote on the martial law referendum proposal was postponed to the following week.[15]

On 18 April 2025, the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party advanced two more referendum proposals to a second legislative reading without review by a Legislative Yuan committee.[17] The first referendum proposal of April 2025, on absentee voting and formally proposed by the TPP, premier Cho Jung-tai described as "totally unfeasible" due to potential manipulation by China.[18] The other referendum proposal considered in April was related to the closure of the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant's second reactor.[17] On 13 May 2025, the Legislative Yuan voted to allow licenses for active nuclear power plants to be renewed for an additional twenty-year period.[19] President Lai Ching-te opposed passage of the bill, stating that restarting Maanshan's second reactor would require a substantive review process.[20] The reactor was duly disconnected on 17 May 2025.[21] The referendum on restarting Maanshan's second reactor was approved three days after the reactor had fully shut down.[22]

On 23 May 2025, the Kuomintang announced that the referendum proposals on absentee voting and martial law had missed the deadline to be voted on in August.[23]

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Scheduling, polling, and pre-referendum debates

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The Central Election Commission rejected the death penalty referendum proposal on 23 May 2025, and approved the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant proposal on the same day, formally setting the referendum to be held on 23 August 2025.[24] On 13 June, the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party voted to bypass legislative committee review and advanced a proposed administrative lawsuit against the Central Election Commission.[25] On 21 June, the CEC announced that five public forums would be held between 7–15 August.[26] The Legislative Yuan would represent supporters of the referendum, while the Executive Yuan or affiliated agencies would represent opposition to the referendum.[27] In early July, Green Party Taiwan and Pingtung County residents separately protested against the potential reactivation of Maanshan.[28][29]

A poll conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in early August used the same phrasing as the referendum question, and found that 38.7% of people "completely agreed" with the referendum as proposed, 27.7% "somewhat agreed", 11.7% “somewhat disagreed” and 10.4% “completely disagreed". Respondents who identified as supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party were split 46% to 45% in favor of restarting Maanshan, while people who backed the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party supported the proposed restart by majorities of 87% and 93% respectively.[30]

At the first debate on 7 August, Yeh Tsung-kuang, director of National Tsing Hua University's College of Nuclear Science, discussed the potential for power shortages if Maanshan were not reactivated. Taiwan Power Company chairman Tseng Wen-sheng opined that the referendum should not be held yet, because "safety concerns" had not yet been clearly defined or resolved.[31]

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References

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