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2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

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2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
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The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.[3]

Quick Facts Alaska's at-large congressional district, Turnout ...
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The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008[7] and was sworn in on September 13.[8]

The results were praised by pundits and activists, with FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, arguing the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]

However, experts in social choice criticized the election procedure for its pathological behavior[11][12] called a center squeeze.[12][13][14] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority of voters to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola.[12][15][16] However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat.[12][17] The final winner, Mary Peltola, was not listed at all on most voters' ballots.[12]

The election was also an example of a no-show paradox, where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect, with high Republican turnout by Palin supporters leading to a Democrat (Peltola) winning.[17][12] Peltola won the race because of 5,200 ballots ranking her last, behind Palin and Begich.[17][18] Similarly, the election was an example of negative (or perverse) responsiveness,[17] a situation under RCV where the normal mathematical meaning of a ballot "reverses" (ranking a candidate higher up causes them to lose).[17][19]

In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV,[10] leading some to compare it to the 2009 Burlington mayoral election, where similar pathologies resulted in a 2010 initiative repealing the system.[20][21][22] Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt a rule without similar behavior.[11]

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Nonpartisan blanket primary

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Withdrew after advancing to general election

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[47]
Santa Claus (I)

State legislators

Christopher Constant (D)

U.S. senators

  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

Local officials

Al Gross (I)

State officials

State legislators

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

Individuals

Josh Revak (R)

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[53]
Tara Sweeney (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

State officials

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association[54]

Debates and forums

More information No., Date ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Thumb
Primary election results by state house district
More information Party, Candidate ...
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General election

Summarize
Perspective

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[40]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Local officials

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations

Sarah Palin (R)
Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

  • Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
  • Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
  • Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin

Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Results

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Preference flow
More information Party, Candidate ...
More information First round results by state house district, District ...
More information Final round results by state house district, District ...

Pairwise comparison

[further explanation needed]

More information Begich, Peltola ...

The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner (majority-preferred winner) while Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler:[80][81][82][83]

More information Winner, Loser ...
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See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.

Partisan clients

  1. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross
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References

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