2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

This article is about the special election. For the regularly-held election, see 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska.

For broader coverage of this topic, see Alaska's at-large congressional district.

The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.^[2] Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.^[3]

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

← 2020 August 16, 2022 November 2022 →
Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout	32.2%[1]
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III Party Democratic Republican Republican First round 74,817 39.66% 58,339 30.92% 52,536 27.84% Final round 91,266 51.48% 86,026 48.52% Eliminated
First round results by State House district First round results by precinct Final round results by State House district Final round results by borough/census area Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election Don Young Republican Elected U.S. Representative Mary Peltola Democratic

The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.^[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008^[7] and was sworn in on September 13.^[8]

The results were praised by pundits and activists, with FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, arguing the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.^[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.^[10]

However, experts in social choice criticized the election procedure for its pathological behavior^[11][12] called a center squeeze.^[12][13][14] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority of voters to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola.^[12][15][16] However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat.^[12][17] The final winner, Mary Peltola, was not listed at all on most voters' ballots.^[12]

The election was also an example of a no-show paradox, where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect, with high Republican turnout by Palin supporters leading to a Democrat (Peltola) winning.^[17][12] Peltola won the race because of 5,200 ballots ranking her last, behind Palin and Begich.^[17][18] Similarly, the election was an example of negative (or perverse) responsiveness,^[17] a situation under RCV where the normal mathematical meaning of a ballot "reverses" (ranking a candidate higher up causes them to lose).^[17][19]

In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV,^[10] leading some to compare it to the 2009 Burlington mayoral election, where similar pathologies resulted in a 2010 initiative repealing the system.^[20][21][22] Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt a rule without similar behavior.^[11]

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Santa Claus

John Coghill

Christopher Constant

John Howe

Jeff Lowenfels

J. R. Myers

Josh Revak

Tara Sweeney

Adam Wool

Candidates

Advanced to general election

• Nick Begich III (Republican), Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich Sr., nephew of former U.S. Senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich^[23][24][25]
• Sarah Palin (Republican), former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008^[23][25][26]
• Mary Peltola (Democratic), former state representative (1999–2009) and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission^[23][25][27]

Withdrew after advancing to general election

• Al Gross (independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross. He was endorsed by the Democratic Party as nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020^[23][25][28] (After placing third, he withdrew and endorsed Peltola)^[29]

Eliminated in primary

• Dennis Aguayo (independent)^[23]
• Jay R. Armstrong (Republican), gold miner^[23]
• Brian Beal (independent)^[23]
• Tim Beck (independent), former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member (1998–2004, 2005–2011), candidate for FNSB mayor (2000) and Alaska Senate (2006)^[23]
• Gregg Brelsford (independent), lawyer and former manager of Bristol Bay Borough (2018–2020)^[23][30]
• Robert Brown (independent), veteran^[23]
• Chris Bye (Libertarian), fishing guide^[23]
• John Callahan (Republican), public affairs officer for the Alaska Air National Guard^[23][31]
• Arlene Carl (independent), retiree^[23]
• Santa Claus (independent), North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, since 2019) and mayor pro tem^[23][32] (endorsed Peltola)^[33]
• John Coghill (Republican), former majority leader of the Alaskan State Senate (2013–2017), former state senator (2009–2021), former majority leader of the Alaskan House of Representatives (2002–2006), former state representative (1999–2009), son of former lieutenant governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran^[23][34]
• Christopher Constant (Democratic), Anchorage Assembly member since 2017^[23][24]
• Lady Donna Dutchess (independent), judicial reform activist^[23]
• Otto Florschutz (Republican), former Wrangell Port Commissioner^[23]
• Laurel Foster (independent), paralegal^[23]
• Tom Gibbons (Republican), business manager^[23]
• Karyn Griffin (independent), political organizer and activist^[23][35]
• Andrew Halcro (independent), former Republican state representative (1998–2003) and Independent candidate for governor of Alaska in 2006^[23][36][32]
• Ted Heintz (independent), Corporate Contract Services Professional^[23]
• William Hibler III (independent), former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016 and 2020^[23]
• John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party), machinist and Alaskan Independence Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020^[23]
• David Hughes (independent), program manager^[23]
• Don Knight (independent)^[23]
• Jeff Lowenfels (independent), attorney and gardening writer^[23][36]
• Robert "Bob" Lyons (Republican), case manager^[23][37]
• Anne McCabe (independent), former president of the Kenai Peninsula Educational Support Association^[23][35]
• Mikel Melander, blue collar worker^[23]
• Sherry Mettler (independent), businesswoman^[23]
• Mike Milligan (Democratic), former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green Party nominee for U.S. House (1992) and lieutenant governor (1998)^[23]
• J. R. Myers (Libertarian), behavioral health clinician, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014^[23]
• Emil Notti (Democratic), engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973^[23][38]
• Robert Ornelas (American Independent Party), perennial candidate^[23]
• Silvio Pellegrini (independent), cyber security manager, IT project manager, and intelligence analyst for the US Air Force Reserve^[23][39]
• Josh Revak (Republican), state senator for District M (2019–present) and U.S. Army veteran^[23][32]
• Maxwell Sumner (Republican), homebuilder^[23][31]
• Tara Sweeney (Republican), former assistant secretary of the Interior for the Bureau of Indian Affairs (2018–2021)^{[23][36][26][40]} (ran as write-in candidate in general election)^[41]
• David Thistle (independent)^[23]
• Ernest Thomas (Democratic)^[23]
• Clayton Trotter (Republican), college professor^[23]
• Bradley Welter (Republican)^[23]
• Jason Williams (independent)^[23]
• Joe Woodward (Republican)^[23]
• Adam Wool (Democratic), state representative (2015–present)^[23][32]
• Stephen Wright (Republican), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016, candidate for Alaska State Senate in 2020, and U.S. Air Force veteran^[23][42]

Withdrawn

• Breck Craig (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016^[23]
• Richard Morris (independent)^[23]
• Jesse Sumner (Republican), member of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly^[23][31]

Declined

• Les Gara (Democratic), former state representative (2003–2019) (running for governor)^[43]
• Mead Treadwell (Republican), former lieutenant governor of Alaska (endorsed Sweeney)^[44]

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

• Ben Carpenter, state representative (2019–present)
• John Coghill, former state senator (2009–2021) and former state representative
• Mia Costello, state senator (2015–present)
• Mike Cronk, state representative (2021–present)
• Lynn Gattis, former state representative (2013–2017)
• Ron Gillham, state representative (2021–present)
• Roger Holland, state senator (2021–present)
• Shelley Hughes, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2021–present), state senator (2017–present), and former state representative (2012–2017)
• Pete Kelly, former president of the Alaska Senate (2017–2019) and state senator (2013–2019; 1999–2003)
• Kevin McCabe, state representative (2021–present)
• Ken McCarty, state representative (2021–present)
• Tom McKay, state representative (2021–present)
• Charisse Millett, former Majority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) and state representative (2009–2019)
• Mike Prax, state representative (2020–present)
• George Rauscher, state representative (2017–present)
• Mike Shower, state senator (2018–present)
• Sarah Vance, state representative (2019–present)

Organizations

• Alaska Outdoor Council^[45]
• Alaska Republican Party^[46]
• Americans for Prosperity Alaska
• Anchorage Young Republicans
• Associated Builders and Contractors, Alaska Chapter
• FreedomWorks for America

Individuals

• Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law^[47]

Santa Claus (I)

State legislators

• Ray Metcalfe

Christopher Constant (D)

U.S. senators

• Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

• Tom Begich, state senator (2017–present)
• Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator (2017–present)^[48]

Local officials

• Austin Quinn-Davidson, acting Mayor of Anchorage (2020–2021) and member of the Anchorage Assembly (2018–present)

Al Gross (I)

State officials

• Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002) and former mayor of Anchorage (1982–1987)
• Fran Ulmer, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (1994–2002), former state representative (1987–1994), and former mayor of Juneau (1983–1985)

State legislators

• Hollis French, former state senator (2003–2015)
• Beth Kerttula, former House Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2007–2014) and state representative (2007–2014)
• Joe Paskvan, former state senator (2009–2013)
• Sally Smith, former mayor of Juneau (2000–2003) and former state representative (1977–1983)

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)^[49]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)^[50]

U.S. federal legislators

• Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
• Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative, New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and House Republican Conference Chair (2021–present)^[51]

Individuals

• Dan Bongino, conservative political commentator
• Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality, ex-wife of Gavin Newsom, fiance of Donald Trump Jr., and former advisor to former president Donald Trump
• Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump

Organizations

• National Right to Life Committee^[52]

Mary Peltola (D)

Individuals

• Alyse Galvin, Independent candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional seat in 2018 and 2020

Josh Revak (R)

Individuals

• Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow^[53]

Tara Sweeney (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and former United States Coast Guard admiral^{[citation needed]}

State officials

• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (2010–2014)^{[citation needed]}

Organizations

• ANCSA Regional Association^[54]

Debates and forums

2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
					Begich	Coghill	Constant	Gross	Lowenfels	Palin	Revak	Peltola	Sweeney
1[55]	May 12, 2022	Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council	N/A	YouTube[56]	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Nick Begich (R)	Santa Claus (I)	John Coghill (R)	Christopher Constant (D)	Al Gross (I)	Andrew Halcro (I)	Jeff Lowenfels (I)	Sarah Palin (R)	Mary Peltola (D)	Josh Revak (R)	Tara Sweeney (R)	Adam Wool (D)	Other	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[57]	May 6–9, 2022	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	16%	6%	2%	5%	13%	2%	3%	19%	5%	4%	4%	2%	4%	16%
Remington Research Group (R)[58]	April 7–9, 2022	955 (LV)	± 3.1%	21%	–	–	7%	26%	–	–	31%	–	3%	2%	–	4%	6%

Results

Primary election results by state house district

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Sarah Palin	43,601	27.01
	Republican	Nick Begich III	30,861	19.12
	Independent	Al Gross[b]	20,392	12.63
	Democratic	Mary Peltola	16,265	10.08
	Republican	Tara Sweeney	9,560	5.92
	Independent	Santa Claus	7,625	4.72
	Democratic	Christopher Constant	6,224	3.86
	Independent	Jeff Lowenfels	5,994	3.71
	Republican	John Coghill	3,842	2.38
	Republican	Josh Revak	3,785	2.34
	Independent	Andrew Halcro	3,013	1.87
	Democratic	Adam Wool	2,730	1.69
	Democratic	Emil Notti	1,777	1.10
	Libertarian	Chris Bye	1,049	0.65
	Democratic	Mike Milligan	608	0.38
	Independence	John Howe	380	0.24
	Independent	Laurel Foster	338	0.21
	Republican	Stephen Wright	332	0.21
	Republican	Jay Armstrong	286	0.18
	Libertarian	J. R. Myers	285	0.18
	Independent	Gregg Brelsford	284	0.18
	Democratic	Ernest Thomas	199	0.12
	Republican	Bob Lyons	197	0.12
	Republican	Otto Florschutz	193	0.12
	Republican	Maxwell Sumner	133	0.08
	Republican	Clayton Trotter	121	0.07
	Independent	Anne McCabe	118	0.07
	Republican	John Callahan	114	0.07
	Independent	Arlene Carle	107	0.07
	Independent	Tim Beck	96	0.06
	Independent	Sherry Mettler	92	0.06
	Republican	Tom Gibbons	94	0.06
	Independent	Lady Donna Dutchess	87	0.05
	American Independent	Robert Ornelas	83	0.05
	Independent	Ted Heintz	70	0.04
	Independent	Silvio Pellegrini	70	0.04
	Independent	Karyn Griffin	67	0.04
	Independent	David Hughes	54	0.03
	Independent	Don Knight	46	0.03
	Republican	Jo Woodward	44	0.03
	Independent	Jason Williams	37	0.02
	Independent	Robert Brown	36	0.02
	Independent	Dennis Aguayo	31	0.02
	Independent	William Hibler III	25	0.02
	Republican	Bradley Welter	24	0.01
	Independent	David Thistle	23	0.01
	Independent	Brian Beal	19	0.01
	Republican	Mikel Melander	17	0.01
Total votes			161,428	100.0

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.^[40]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[60]	Likely R	August 10, 2022
Inside Elections[61]	Likely R	August 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62]	Safe R	June 22, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

• DeLena Johnson, state representative
• Rob Myers Jr., state senator (2021–present)
• Steve Thompson, state representative (2011–present)
• Cathy Tilton, state representative (2015–present)

Local officials

• Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations

• BIPAC

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. federal legislators

• Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)^[63]

Organizations

• NRA Political Victory Fund^[64]

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. federal legislators

• Mark Begich, former U.S. senator (2009–2015), former mayor of Anchorage (2003–2009), and uncle of Nick Begich III

State officials

• Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002)
• Fran Ulmer, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (1994–2002)

State legislators

• Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
• Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
• Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)

Local officials

• Santa Claus, North Pole city councilor (2015–2018, 2019–present) and current mayor pro tem (Independent)^[33][65]
• Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member^[66]
• Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage Assembly member
• Mike Navarre, former mayor of Kenai Peninsula Borough (2011–2017) and former state representative (1985–1996)

Individuals

• Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (Independent)^[29]
• Emil Notti, Alaska Native activist and nominee for 1973 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election^[67]

Labor unions

• Alaska AFL–CIO^[68]

Organizations

• Sealaska Corporation

Tribes

• Organized Village of Kwethluk
• Orutsararmiut Native Council

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	RCV count	Nick Begich (R)	Al Gross (I)	Sarah Palin (R)	Mary Peltola (D)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[69]	July 20–25, 2022	1,219 (LV)	± 2.9%	1	30%	–	29%	41%	–
				2	55%		–	45%
				2*[c]	–		49%	51%
Alaska Survey Research[70]	July 2–5, 2022	1,201 (LV)	± 2.9%	1	31%	–	29%	40%	–
				2	57%		–	43%
				2*[71][c]	–		49%	51%
	June 21, 2022	Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey Research[72]	May 6–9, 2022	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	1	29%	27%	26%	19%	–
				2	33%	40%	28%	–
				3	54%	46%	–

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	RCV count	Nick Begich (R)	Santa Claus (I)	Christopher Constant (D)	Al Gross (I)	Sarah Palin (R)	Tara Sweeney (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[73]	May 6–9, 2022	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	1	28%	21%	–	26%	25%	–	–
				2	32%	–		40%	28%
				3	53%			47%	–
				3*[74][d]	–	53%		–	47%
Alaska Survey Research[75]	May 6–9, 2022	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	1	29%	–	17%	27%	28%	–	–
				2	32%		–	40%	28%
				3	54%			46%	–
Alaska Survey Research[76]	May 6–9, 2022	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	1	28%	–		35%	26%	11%	–
				2	32%			39%	29%	–
				3	55%			45%	–

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	RCV count	Al Gross (I)	Sarah Palin (R)	Lora Reinbold (R)	Josh Revak (R)	Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A]	March 25–29, 2022	728 (LV)	± 3.6%	BA	33%	30%	8%	9%	16%
				2	33%	30%	–	11%	26%
				3	35%	35%	–	–	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Al Gross (I)	Sarah Palin (R)	Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A]	March 25–29, 2022	728 (LV)	± 3.6%	40%	42%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Al Gross (I)	Josh Revak (R)	Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A]	March 25–29, 2022	728 (LV)	± 3.6%	35%	34%	31%

Hypothetical polling

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin

Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Results

Preference flow

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election^[1][78]

Party		Candidate	First choice			Round 1			Round 2
			Votes	%	Transfer	Votes	%	Transfer	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mary Peltola	74,817	39.66%	+982	75,799	40.19%	+15,467	91,266	51.48%
	Republican	Sarah Palin	58,339	30.92%	+634	58,973	31.27%	+27,053	86,026	48.52%
	Republican	Nick Begich III	52,536	27.84%	+1,274	53,810	28.53%	-53,810	Eliminated
	Write-in		2,974	1.58%	-2,974	Eliminated
Total votes			188,666			188,582			177,292
Blank or inactive ballots						3,707		+11,290	14,997
	Democratic gain from Republican

First round results by state house district

District Nick Begich III Republican Sarah Palin Republican Mary Peltola Democratic Write-in Margin [e] Total votes # % # % # % # % # % District 1 1,448 33.42% 1,409 32.52% 1,432 33.05% 44 1.02% 16 0.37% 4,333 District 2 979 20.03% 1,504 30.78% 2,359 48.27% 45 0.92% 855 17.50% 4,887 District 3 1,522 23.28% 1,235 18.89% 3,723 56.94% 59 0.90% 2,201 33.66% 6,539 District 4 1,003 17.38% 701 12.15% 4,014 69.55% 53 0.92% 3,011 52.17% 5,771 District 5 929 23.05% 1,301 32.27% 1,743 43.24% 58 1.44% 442 10.97% 4,031 District 6 1,923 25.63% 2,468 32.90% 3,039 40.51% 72 0.96% 571 7.61% 7,502 District 7 1,673 30.99% 2,448 45.34% 1,213 22.47% 65 1.20% 775 14.35% 5,399 District 8 1,867 28.54% 3,216 49.17% 1,394 21.31% 64 0.98% 1,349 20.62% 6,541 District 9 2,684 32.55% 1,656 20.08% 3,722 45.13% 185 2.24% 1,038 12.59% 8,247 District 10 1,687 32.11% 1,370 26.08% 2,099 39.96% 97 1.85% 412 7.84% 5,253 District 11 2,054 33.11% 1,506 24.28% 2,537 40.90% 106 1.71% 483 7.79% 6,203 District 12 1,341 28.17% 1,114 23.40% 2,228 46.81% 77 1.62% 887 18.63% 4,760 District 13 1,096 27.41% 1,047 26.18% 1,791 44.79% 65 1.63% 695 17.38% 3,999 District 14 1,000 21.80% 897 19.56% 2,615 57.01% 75 1.64% 1,615 35.21% 4,587 District 15 1,884 32.62% 1,349 23.36% 2,439 42.23% 103 1.78% 555 9.61% 5,775 District 16 1,671 27.09% 1,138 18.45% 3,234 52.43% 125 2.03% 1,563 25.34% 6,168 District 17 905 18.96% 704 14.75% 3,066 64.25% 97 2.03% 2,161 45.28% 4,772 District 18 299 22.91% 360 27.59% 626 47.97% 20 1.53% 266 20.38% 1,305 District 19 536 20.93% 521 20.34% 1,465 57.20% 39 1.52% 929 36.27% 2,561 District 20 885 23.17% 924 24.19% 1,969 51.56% 41 1.07% 1,045 27.36% 3,819 District 21 1,528 28.67% 1,256 23.56% 2,469 46.32% 77 1.44% 941 17.65% 5,330 District 22 755 30.77% 682 27.79% 971 39.57% 46 1.87% 216 8.80% 2,454 District 23 1,909 32.15% 1,884 31.73% 2,044 34.43% 100 1.68% 135 2.27% 5,937 District 24 2,191 37.08% 1,945 32.92% 1,682 28.47% 91 1.54% 246 4.16% 5,909 District 25 2,070 33.93% 2,338 38.32% 1,624 26.62% 69 1.13% 268 4.39% 6,101 District 26 1,566 31.95% 2,398 48.92% 883 18.01% 55 1.12% 832 16.97% 4,902 District 27 1,410 30.78% 2,303 50.27% 809 17.66% 59 1.29% 893 19.49% 4,581 District 28 1,683 32.88% 2,402 46.92% 979 19.12% 55 1.07% 719 14.05% 5,119 District 29 1,834 32.35% 2,390 42.15% 1,395 24.60% 51 0.90% 556 9.81% 5,670 District 30 1,581 26.73% 2,729 46.14% 1,542 26.07% 63 1.07% 1,148 19.41% 5,915 District 31 953 26.64% 1,144 31.98% 1,407 39.33% 73 2.04% 263 7.35% 3,577 District 32 562 26.53% 929 43.86% 581 27.43% 46 2.17% 348 16.43% 2,118 District 33 1,117 27.45% 2,145 52.72% 743 18.26% 64 1.57% 1,028 25.26% 4,069 District 34 1,411 25.52% 1,966 35.56% 2,041 36.91% 111 2.01% 75 1.36% 5,529 District 35 1,182 20.90% 1,453 25.69% 2,911 48.4% 109 1.93% 1,458 25.78% 5,655 District 36 1,485 26.61% 1,979 35.46% 2,030 36.37% 87 1.56% 51 0.91% 5,581 District 37 599 28.62% 563 26.90% 908 43.38% 23 1.10% 309 14.76% 2,093 District 38 289 15.17% 269 14.12% 1,327 69.66% 20 1.05% 1,038 54.49% 1,905 District 39 635 28.01% 391 17.25% 1,185 52.27% 56 2.47% 550 24.26% 2,267 District 40 389 26.46% 303 20.61% 549 37.35% 229 15.58% 160 10.88% 1,470 Overseas voters 1 3.13% 2 6.25% 29 90.63% 0 0.00% 27 84.38% 32 Totals 52,536 27.85% 58,339 30.92% 74,817 39.66% 2,974 1.58% 16,478 8.73% 188,666

Final round results by state house district

District[79][f] Mary Peltola Democratic Sarah Palin Republican Margin[e] Total active votes # % # % # % District 1 1,894 49.17% 1,958 50.83% 64 1.66% 3,852 District 2 2,739 59.34% 1,877 40.66% 862 18.67% 4,616 District 3 4,250 68.59% 1,946 31.41% 2,304 37.19% 6,196 District 4 4,408 79.74% 1,120 20.26% 3,288 59.48% 5,528 District 5 2,123 56.05% 1,665 43.95% 458 12.09% 3,788 District 6 3,562 50.10% 3,548 49.90% 14 0.20% 7,110 District 7 1,643 33.34% 3,285 66.66% 1,642 33.32% 4,928 District 8 1,822 30.05% 4,241 69.95% 2,419 39.90% 6,063 District 9 4,536 58.81% 3,177 41.19% 1,359 17.62% 7,713 District 10 2,661 53.83% 2,282 46.17% 379 7.67% 4,943 District 11 3,148 54.23% 2,657 45.77% 491 8.46% 5,805 District 12 2,694 59.43% 1,839 40.57% 855 18.86% 4,533 District 13 2,172 57.07% 1,634 42.93% 538 14.14% 3,806 District 14 3,013 68.93% 1,358 31.07% 1,655 37.86% 4,371 District 15 3,031 55.99% 2,382 44.01% 649 11.99% 5,413 District 16 3,847 65.67% 2,011 34.33% 1,836 31.34% 5,858 District 17 3,475 76.12% 1,090 23.88% 2,385 52.25% 4,565 District 18 727 58.39% 518 41.61% 209 16.79% 1,245 District 19 1,675 68.28% 778 31.72% 897 36.57% 2,453 District 20 2,331 63.64% 1,332 36.36% 999 27.27% 3,663 District 21 2,969 58.68% 2,091 41.32% 878 17.35% 5,060 District 22 1,240 53.54% 1,076 46.46% 164 7.08% 2,316 District 23 2,570 46.28% 2,983 53.72% 413 7.44% 5,553 District 24 2,203 40.27% 3,267 59.73% 1,064 19.45% 5,470 District 25 2,126 37.60% 3,529 62.40% 1,403 24.81% 5,655 District 26 1,175 25.63% 3,409 74.37% 2,234 48.73% 4,584 District 27 1,151 26.88% 3,131 73.12% 1,980 46.24% 4,282 District 28 1,397 29.23% 3,383 70.77% 1,986 41.55% 4,780 District 29 1,855 34.74% 3,484 65.26% 1,629 30.51% 5,339 District 30 1,942 34.88% 3,626 65.12% 1,684 30.24% 5,568 District 31 1,752 52.24% 1,602 47.76% 150 4.47% 3,354 District 32 777 38.66% 1,233 61.34% 456 22.69% 2,010 District 33 1,006 26.18% 2,837 73.82% 1,831 47.65% 3,843 District 34 2,470 47.43% 2,738 52.57% 268 5.15% 5,208 District 35 3,373 62.13% 2,056 37.87% 1,317 24.26% 5,429 District 36 2,462 47.19% 2,755 52.81% 293 5.62% 5,217 District 37 1,157 59.79% 778 40.21% 379 19.59% 1,935 District 38 1,490 80.41% 363 19.59% 1,127 60.82% 1,853 District 39 1,507 74.35% 520 25.65% 987 48.69% 2,027 District 40 863 65.13% 462 34.87% 401 30.26% 1,325 Overseas voters 29 90.63% 3 9.38% 26 81.25% 32 Totals 91,265 48.4% 86,024 45.6% 5,241 2.96% 177,289

Pairwise comparison

^{[further explanation needed]}

Pairwise comparison matrix^[16][12]

	Begich	Peltola	Palin
Begich	-	88,126	101,438
Peltola	79,486	-	91,375
Palin	63,666	86,197	-

The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner (majority-preferred winner) while Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler:^{[80][81][82][83]}

Winner		Loser	Winner	Loser
Begich	vs.	Peltola	52.6%	vs. 47.4%
Begich	vs.	Palin	61.4%	vs. 38.6%
Peltola	vs.	Palin	51.5%	vs. 48.5%

See also

• 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
• 2022 United States elections
• 117th United States Congress
• List of special elections to the United States House of Representatives

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
3. Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
4. Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
5. Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
6. Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.

Partisan clients

1. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross