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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls were declared candidates or had received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Given the large number of candidates, the scores of certain low-polling and infrequently-polled candidates have been combined within the "other" column; their exact scores may be viewed by viewing the footnotes associated with each poll. The polls included are among Democrats or Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and do not include Republican-leaning independents. Open-ended polls are included and marked with an asterisk (*), but closed-ended versions of such polls are listed where possible. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version used for debate qualification is prioritized, then the version among likely voters, then registered voters, then adults.
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Background
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The Democratic National Committee (DNC) determined that candidates could qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates either by polling at 1% or higher in at least three national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) polls sponsored or conducted by designated organizations (in different regions if by the same organization) published after January 1, 2019, up until June 12, 2019, or by a fundraising threshold requiring at least 65,000 unique donors with at least 200 in 20 different states. If more than 20 candidates met either threshold, candidates meeting both thresholds would be given highest priority for entry into the debates, followed by those with the highest polling average and those with the most donors. The pollsters and sponsors of polls designated for consideration by the DNC were the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.[1] Open-ended polls did not count towards the polling threshold.[2] Only top-line polling results counted toward the threshold.[3]
For the third and fourth primary debates, candidates were required to meet both polling and fundraising thresholds. Prior considerations were only polls between June 28 and August 28, 2019, and increased to 4 qualifying polls at 2% support, now excluding surveys sponsored by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Reuters; the latter requirement was also increased, to 130,000 unique donors with at least 400 in 20 different states.[4]
A total of 29 major candidates declared their candidacies for the primaries,[5] the largest field of presidential primary candidates for any American political party since the modern primaries began in 1972, exceeding the field of 17 major candidates in the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries.[6]
Other individuals who were included in national Democratic primary polls but did not run for the 2020 nomination included Stacey Abrams, Michael Avenatti, Sherrod Brown, Hillary Clinton, Mark Cuban, Andrew Cuomo, Al Franken, Eric Garcetti, Eric Holder, Tim Kaine, Jason Kander, Joe Kennedy III, John Kerry, Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Howard Schultz, Oprah Winfrey, and Mark Zuckerberg.
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Polling aggregation
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from January 2019 to August 2020.

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2020
April–August 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
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2019
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
April–June 2019
March 2019
January–February 2019
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Before 2019
October–December 2018
Before October 2018
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Polls including Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama
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Head-to-head polls
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Favorability ratings
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Unlike traditional preference polling, favorability ratings allow individuals to independently rate each candidate. This provides a comprehensive impression of a candidate's electorate appeal without vote splitting distortion, where votes divide between ideologically similar candidates in multi-candidate polls. Favorability indicates general candidate acceptance among voters, irrespective of final vote choice. The table uses net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable).
From February 2020 to April 2020
From October 2019 to January 2020
Before October 2019
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See also
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries.
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Democratic National Convention
- Opinion polling for the 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
Notes
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Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action.
Additional candidates
- "A woman senator like Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand" with 5%; "Moderate Governors John Hickenlooper or Terry McAuliffe" and "A cultural figure like Tom Hanks or Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson" with 2%; "A businessman like Tom Steyer or Howard Schultz", "A young lawmaker like Chris Murphy or Julian Castro", and "A mayor of a major city like Bill DeBlasio or Antonio Villaraigosa" with 1%; others with 0%
- Net favorability calculated as (net favorability among exclusively Dem. primary voters * proportion of Dem. primary voters that are exclusively Dem. primary voters) + (net favorability among voters in both Dem. and Rep. primaries * proportion of Dem. primary voters that are voters in both Dem. and Rep. primaries). Net favorability for a single category calculated as (% of category which rates candidate > 0 - % of category which rates candidate < 0).
- 'Likely voters' here combines the 'likely voter' and 'definite voter' categories in the linked poll.
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References
External links
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