Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election

In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.^[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.^[2]

Post-poll surveys or Exit polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.^[3]

Opinion polls

Number of seats projected in opinion polls per alliance over time.

Indian General Election Trends - 2019

Various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day. The ECI banned the release of exit polls from 11 April to 19 May, the last phase of the elections.^[4] The commission also banned the publication or broadcast in the media of predictions made by astrologers and tarot card readers.^[5]

Poll type	Date published	Polling agency			Others	Majority	Ref
			NDA	UPA
Opinion polls	8 April 2019	Times Now-VMR	279	149	115	7	[6]
	6 April 2019	India TV-CNX	275	126	142	3	[7]
	Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR	283	135	125	11	[8]
	Mar 2019	News Nation	270	134	139	Hung	[9]
	Mar 2019	CVoter	264	141	138	Hung	[citation needed]
	Mar 2019	India TV-CNX	285	126	132	13	[10]
	Mar 2019	Zee 24 Taas	264	165	114	Hung	[11]
	Feb 2019	VDP Associates	242	148	153	Hung	[12]
	Jan 2019	Times Now-VMR	252	147	144	Hung	[13]
	Jan 2019	ABP News-CVoter	233	167	143	Hung	[14]
	Jan 2019	India Today-Karvy	237	166	140	Hung	[15]
	Jan 2019	VDP Associates	225	167	150	Hung	[16]
	Dec 2018	India Today	257	146	140	Hung	[17]
	Dec 2018	ABP News-CVoter	247	171	125	Hung	[18]
	Dec 2018	India TV-CNX	281	124	138	9	[19]
	Nov 2018	ABP News-CVoter	261	119	163	Hung	[20]
	Oct 2018	ABP News	276	112	155	4	[21]
	Aug 2018	India Today-Karvy	281	122	140	9	[22]
	May 2018	ABP News-CSDS	274	164	105	2	[23]
	Jan 2018	CVoter	335	89	119	63	[citation needed]
	Jan 2018	India Today	309	102	132	37	[24]

Vote share

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA
Mar 2019	News Nation[9]	34%	28%	38%	6%
Mar 2019	ABP News – C voter[25][26]	41%	31%	28%	10%
Jan 2019	Times Now-VMR[27]	38.7%	32.6%	28.7%	6.1%
Jan 2019	CVoter[citation needed]	37.6%	32.2%	30.2%	5.4%
Jan 2019	India Today -Karvy[15]	35%	33%	32%	2%
April–May 2014	2014 General election results	36.0%	23.0%	42.0%	13.0%

Polling on politicians

Next Prime Minister

Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		Narendra Modi	Rahul Gandhi
Jan 2019	India Today[28]	60%	24%	36%
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[29]	41%	23%	18%
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voter[20]	56%	36%	20%
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	60%	34%	26%
Jan 2018		66%	28%	38%
2017		69%	26%	43%

Narendra Modi vs Priyanka Gandhi

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		Yes	No
Feb 2019	ABP news - Cvoter[31]	60%	32%	28%

Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election

Date published	Polling agency													can't say	Lead
		Rahul Gandhi	Mamata Banerjee	K. Chandrashekar Rao	P. Chidambaram	Akhilesh Yadav	Arvind Kejriwal	Naveen Patnaik	Sharad Pawar	Mayawati	Nitish Kumar	Sonia Gandhi	Mulayam Singh Yadav
Jan 2019	India Today- Karvy[32]	32%	3%	–	3%	3%	–	–	–	7%	–	–	–	12%	34%
Jul 2018	India Today- Karvy[33]	46%	8%	6%	6%	4%	4%	2%	2%	2%	–	–	–	12%	34%
Jan 2018		45%	9%	9%	7%	5%	4%	4%	2%	3%	–	–	–	12%	33%
Jul 2017		21%	4%	6%	4%	–	7%	3%	–	2%	13%	12%	3%	22%	1%
Jan 2017		28%	4%	3%	2%		7%	2%		3%	13%	9%	3%	24%	4%
Aug 2016		23%	4%	4%	2%		12%	3%		3%	13%	9%	3%	21%	2%
Feb 2016		32%	2%	5%	–		10%	1%		3%	8%	15%	2%	15%	17%

Approval ratings

Economic performance; compared to previous government

Date published	Polling agency			Don't know	Lead
		Better	Worse
Jan 2019	India Today -Karvy[34]	49%	28%	23%	21%
Aug 2018	India Today -Karvy[34]	51%	24%	25%	27%
Jan 2018	India Today -Karvy[34]	56%	21%	23%	34%

Issues

Key Issues

Date published	Polling agency	Unemployment	Price rise	Corruption	Farmers' plight
Jan 2019	India today - Karvy[35]	37%	19%	15%	12%

Farm distress; Low crop causing farm distress

Date published	Polling agency			Don't know	Lead
		Yes	No
Jan 2019	India today - Karvy[35]	65%	25%	10%	40%

Jobs; Enough created

Date published	Polling agency			Don't know	Lead
		Yes	No
Jan 2019	India today - Karvy[35]	12%	76%	12%	64%

Alleged corruption in Rafale deal

Date published	Polling agency	Yes	No	Not aware of deal	Can't say
Jan 2019	India today - Karvy[36]	30%	32%	23%	15%

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (25)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		TDP	YSRCP
6 April 2019	IndiaTV-CNX [37]	7	18	11

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		TDP	YSRCP	UPA	NDA

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Assam (14)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	AIUDF
6 April 2019	IndiaTV-CNX [37]	5	5	2	–
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	8	4	2	4

Date published	Polling agency				Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA	AIUDF
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	37.0%	32.4%	12.8%	14.3%	4.60%

Bihar (40)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	IndiaTV-CNX [37]	29	11	18
Jan 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	35	5	30
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voter[20]	34	6	28
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	22	18	4
		31	9	22

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Chhattisgarh (11)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	3	8	5
March 2019	News Nation[9]	5	6	1
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[39]	5	6	1
Oct 2018	Times Now[40]	8	3	5
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	9	2	7
Oct 2018	Times Now[40]	8	3	5

Date published	Polling agency				Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA	JCC

Goa (2)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[41]	2	–	2

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Gujarat (26)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV-CNX[41]	24	2	22
March 2019	News Nation[9]	21	5	16

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Haryana (10)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	INLD
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[41]	9	1	–	8
Jan 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	7	3	–	4
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	6	3	1	3

Date published	Polling agency				Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA	INLD

Himachal Pradesh (4)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[41]	2	4	2
Mar 2019	Times Now[38]	2	4	2

Date published	Polling agency				Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA	JKPDP

Jharkhand (14)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
9 April 2019	Times Now - VMR[42]	11	3	8
8 April 2019	News Nation[43]	9	5	4
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[44]	10	4	6
30 March 2019	VDP Associates[45]	7	7	–
5 January 2019	VDP Associates[46]	4	10	6

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		NDA	UPA	JMM	JVM

Karnataka (28)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	16	12	4

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Kerala (20)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UDF	LDF	NDA
15–19 April 2019	Twenty Four News[47]	10-12	8-10	0-2	0-4
14 April 2019	Asianet News - AZ Research[48]	13	6	1	7
8 April 2019	Mathrubhoomi News - Nielson[49]	14	5	1	9
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	14	5	1	9
March 2019	News Nation[9]	15	4	1	11
March 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	16	3	1	12
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[50]	12	6	2	6

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UDF	LDF	NDA
15-19 Apr 2019	Twenty Four News[47]	42%	39%	15%	3%
14 April 2019	Asianet News – AZ Research[48]	41%	34%	19%	7%
8 April 2019	Mathrubhoomi News – Nielson[49]	41%	37%	16%	4%
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	45%	29.2%	21.7%	15.8%

Madhya Pradesh (29)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	IndiaTV-CNX[37]	21	8	13
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	24	5	19
Jan 2019	ABP News -Cvoter[14]	23	6	17
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[39]	18	11	7
Nov 2018	ABP News - C Voters[20]	22	7	15
Oct 2018	Times Now[40]	21	8	13
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	23	6	17

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	49.20%	39.70%	4.30%	9.5%

Maharashtra (48)

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		NDA	SHS	UPA	NCP
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[51]	34		13		21
Jan 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	28		20		8
Jan 2019	VDP Associates[52]	23	2	23		–
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[53]	22	8	18		4
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voter[20]	23	5	14	6	9
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	16	2	30		14
		36		12		24
		22	7	11	8	11

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		NDA	SHS	UPA	NCP

Manipur (2)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	NDA	NPF
Mar 2019	Times Now[38]	1	1	0	–

Meghalaya (2)

Mizoram (1)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	MNF	NDA
Mar 2019	Times Now[38]	0	1		1

Nagaland (1)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	NPF	NDA
March 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	0	1	0	1

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	NPF	Others
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	30.1%	68.7%	5.9%	38.6%

Odisha (21)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	BJD
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	6	1	14	8
Jan 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	12	–	9	3
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voter[20]	13	3	5	6
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	13	2	6	7

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	BJD

Punjab (13)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	AAP
6 April 2019	India TV[37]	3	9	1	6
Mar 2019	Zee 24 Taas[11]	1	10	2	6
Mar 2019	India TV[54]	3	9	1	6
Jan 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	1	12	0	11
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	1	12	0	11

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	AAP

Rajasthan (25)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	17	8	9
March 2019	News Nation[9]	17	8	9
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[39]	15	10	5
Jan 2019	VDP Associates[55]	12	13	1
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voters[20]	17	8	9
Oct 2018	Times Now[40]	24	1	23
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	18	7	11

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Sikkim (1)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	SDF	NDA
8 April 2019	News X[56]	0	1		1
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	0	1		1
March 2019	Times Now[38]	0	1		1

Tamil Nadu (39)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	NDA	AIADMK
8 April 2019	Times Now-VMR[57]	33	6		27
8 April 2019	PuthiyaThalaimurai TV[58]	31-33	6-8		27
6 April 2019	IndiaTV-CNX[37]	21	13		8
5 April 2019	People studies-Loyola College[59]	33	3-5		28
Mar 2019	News Nation[9]	24	15		9
Mar 2019	Times[60]	18	15	6	3
Mar 2019	India TV-CNX[54]	22	15	2	7

• AIADMK is part of NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Telangana (17)

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		TRS	UPA	BJP	AIMIM
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	12	4	0	1	8
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	12	1	2	1	10

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		UPA	TRS	AIMIM	NDA
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	30.30%	41.20%	7.4%	17.60%	10.9%

Tripura (2)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		LDF	NDA	UPA
Mar 2019	Times Now-VMR[38]	0	2	0	2
March 2019	India TV-CNX[54]	1	1	0	–
Jan 2019	Times Now-VMR[61]	0	2	0	2
Dec 2018	India Today[17]	1	1	0	–

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	MGB
8 April 2019	News Nation[62]	37	2	41	4
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[37]	41	4	35	6
3 April 2019	ABP News - Nielsen[63]	36	2	42	6
1 April 2019	India TV - CNX[64]	46	4	30	16
19 March 2019	Times Now - VMR[38]	42	2	36	6
12 March 2019	News Nation[9]	35	2	43	8
8 March 2019	India TV - CNX[65]	41	4	35	6
31 January 2019	Times Now - VMR[61]	27	2	51	24
24 January 2019	ABP News - Cvoter[14]	25	4	51	26
23 January 2019	India Today[66]	18	4	58	40
2 November 2018	ABP News - CVoter[20]	31	5	44	13
5 October 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	36	2	42	6

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	MGB

Uttarakhand (5)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[39]	4	1	3

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

West Bengal (42)

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		NDA	UPA	AITC	LF
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[41]	12	1	28	1	16
Mar 2019	ABP News- Nielsen[67]	8	3	31	–	23
Jan 2019	Spick Media[68]	8	4	30	0	22
Nov 2018	Spick Media[69]	5	4	32	1	27
Nov 2018	ABP News- C Voter[20]	9	1	32	–	23

Date published	Polling agency					Lead
		NDA	UPA	AITC	LF

Union territories

Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Chandigarh (1)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	AAP

Date published	Polling agency				Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA	AAP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		NDA	UPA

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		NDA	UPA

Daman and Diu (1)

Lakshadweep (1)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		UPA	NDA

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		UPA	NDA	NCP

Puducherry (1)

Date published	Polling agency			Lead
		UPA	NDA

Date published	Polling agency			Others	Lead
		UPA	NDA

NCT of Delhi (7)

Date published	Polling agency				Lead
		NDA	UPA	AAP
6 April 2019	India TV - CNX[41]	7	0	0	7
March 2019	News Nation[9]	6	0	1	5
Jan 2019	India TV - CNX[39]	5	1	1	4
Oct 2018	ABP News- CSDS[30]	4	–	3	1

Exit polls

Poll type	Date published	Polling agency			Others	Majority	Ref
			NDA	UPA
Exit polls		India Today-Axis	352 ± 13	93 ± 15	82 ± 13	70 ± 13	[70]
		News24-Today's Chanakya	350 ± 14	95 ± 9	97 ± 11	68 ± 14	[71]
		News18-IPSOS CNN-IBN-IPSOS	336	82	124	64	[72][73]
		VDP Associates	333	115	94	61	[74]
		Sudarshan News	313	121	109	41	[75]
		Times Now-VMR	306 ± 3	132 ± 3	104 ± 3	34 ± 3	[76]
		Suvarna News	305	124	102	33	[75]
		India TV-CNX	300 ± 10	120 ± 5	122 ± 6	28 ± 10	[77]
		India News-Polstrat	287	128	127	15	[78]
		CVoter	287	128	127	15	[73]
		News Nation	286	122	134	14	[79]
		ABP-CSDS	277	130	135	5	[70]
		NewsX-Neta	242	164	137	Hung	[73]

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election