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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election

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This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less accurate than in the 2016 election, and possibly more inaccurate than in any election since 1996.[1]

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Polling aggregation

Summarize
Perspective

Two-way

The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 percentage points.

Polling aggregates
Active candidates
  Joe Biden (Democratic)
  Donald Trump (Republican)
  Others/Undecided

% Support01020304050609/4/20194/8/20208/17/202010/23/2020Joe BidenDonald TrumpOthers/UndecidedNationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Unit...

More information Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden, Source of poll aggregation ...

Four-way

Calculated averages are not comparable to those for the Biden vs. Trump polls. As polling with third parties has been very limited, the polls included in the average are often different.

More information Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jo Jorgensen vs. Howie Hawkins, Source of poll aggregation ...
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National poll results

October 1 – November 3, 2020

More information Poll source, Date ...

September 1–30, 2020

More information Poll source, Date ...

July 1 – August 31, 2020

More information Poll source, Date ...

May 3 – June 30, 2020

More information Poll source, Date ...

Jan 1 – May 2, 2020

More information Poll source, Date ...

2017–2019

More information Poll source, Date ...
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See also

Notes

Summarize
Perspective
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  4. Standard VI response
  5. Overlapping sample with the previous IBD/TIPP poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  7. Not yet released
  8. With the only options as Biden, Trump and "someone else" and additional weighting based on respondents' estimated chances of voting
  9. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  10. "Refused" with 2%
  11. West (B) with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. Overlapping sample with the previous Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  15. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  17. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  18. "Neither/other" with 3%
  19. No voters
  20. "Another candidate" with 2%
  21. "Other" and "Refused" with 3%
  22. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  23. "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with no voters
  24. Would not vote with no voters
  25. Would not vote with 0%
  26. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  27. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. "Someone else" with 4%
  29. Includes did not vote
  30. "Don't recall" with 1%
  31. Did/would not vote with 0%
  32. "Another candidate" with 4%
  33. "A different candidate" with 2%
  34. West (B) with 0%
  35. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  36. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  37. "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided"/would not vote with 6%
  38. Includes "Refused"
  39. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  40. "Someone else" with 1%
  41. Likely voter model assuming 70% turnout
  42. Likely voter model assuming 55% turnout
  43. "Another candidate" with 6%; "Refused" with 1%
  44. "Someone else" with 5%
  45. "Another candidate" with 3%
  46. "Another candidate" with 0%
  47. "None of these" with 0%; "Other" with no voters
  48. "Other" with no voters; "neither" with 0%
  49. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  50. "A different candidate" with 3%
  51. "Some other candidate" with 3%; West (B) with 0%
  52. With only Biden, Trump and "Some other candidate" available
  53. "None/other" with 1%
  54. "Third party candidate" with 3%
  55. "Neither/other" with 2%
  56. "Third party candidate" with 4%
  57. "Another candidate" with 1.5%
  58. "Another candidate" with 7%
  59. "Another candidate" with 5%
  60. "Someone else" with 0%
  61. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  62. Likely voter model assuming 68% turnout
  63. "Skipped/Refused" with 0%
  64. "Someone else" with 4%; "Refused" with 2%
  65. "Someone else" with 3%
  66. "A different candidate" with 5%
  67. "Someone else" with 3%; "Refused" with 0%
  68. "Another candidate" with 7%; "Skipped/Refused" with 1%
  69. Registered Voters subsample of full sample of 2019 adults
  70. "Other candidate or neither candidate" with 3%
  71. "Undecided/third party" with 6%
  72. "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  73. "Some other candidate" with 7%
  74. If only Biden and Trump were candidates and including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  75. LV subsample of full 1,604 RV sample
  76. "A different candidate" with 4%
  77. "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  78. "Refused" with 3%
  79. "Someone else/don't know/no opinion" with 7%
  80. Results with tighter Likely Voter screen; additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  81. Sample size not yet released, but results with looser Likely Voter screen
  82. "Other" with 4%; "No response" with 0%
  83. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  84. "Someone else/don't know/no opinion" with 6%
  85. "Someone else/third party" with 4%
  86. Kanye West (affiliated with the Birthday Party, but listed in the poll as an independent) with 1%
  87. "Prefer not to answer" with 3%
  88. "Other" with 8%; "Refused" with 4%
  89. Listed as "Not eligible to vote"
  90. "Other" with 1%
  91. Listed as "Neither"
  92. "Neither/other" with 5%
  93. "A different candidate" with 8%
  94. With voters who lean towards a given candidate if only Biden and Trump were candidates
  95. "Some other candidate" with 3%; West (B) with 2%
  96. "Someone else" with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  97. Kanye West (B) with 2%
  98. "Other candidate" with 1%
  99. West (B) with 3%
  100. "Other candidate" with 3%
  101. "Skipped on web" and "Refused" with 0%
  102. "Another candidate" with 10%; "Skipped/Refused" with 1%
  103. With Kanye West
  104. Without Kanye West
  105. Jacob Hornberger
  106. "Some other candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%
  107. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  108. Listed as Jorgensen
  109. Listed as Hawkins
  110. "Other candidate" with 2%; "no one" with <1%
  111. Response without naming third party candidates
  112. "Some other candidate" with 4%; "no one" with 0%
  113. With a third party option
  114. "Third party candidate" with 11%
  115. Would not vote with 1%
  116. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  117. "Other candidate" with 5.6%; would not vote with 0.5%
  118. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  119. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 4%
  120. "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 2%
  121. "Neither" with 2%
  122. 92% of a sample of 1,886 registered voters
  123. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  124. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  125. "No answer" with 4%
  126. Would not vote with 6.1%
  127. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  128. Would not vote
  129. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote and "refused" with 1%
  130. Would not vote with 5.5%
  131. "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  132. Includes would not vote
  133. Would not vote with 4.8%
  134. "Neither/other" with 7.3%
  135. Would not vote with 5%
  136. "Some other candidate" with 9%
  137. "Other" with 1%; "neither" with 2%
  138. Would not vote with 13%; "Third party candidate" with 6%
  139. "Other" and would not vote with 4%
  140. "Someone else" with 7%
  141. "A different candidate" with 6.22%
  142. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  143. Would not vote with 4.7%
  144. "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  145. "Other" with 5%; "no one" with 1%
  146. "Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  147. Would not vote with 4.9%
  148. "Other" and "Neither" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  149. "Other candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 3%
  150. "Some other candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  151. "A different candidate" with 4.52%
  152. Would not vote with 4.1%
  153. Would not vote with 3.4%
  154. "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  155. "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  156. Would not vote with 7%
  157. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  158. "Refused" with 3%; "someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  159. Amash with 3%; "Other" with 5%
  160. "Other" and "neither" with 1%
  161. "Third party/write-in" with 4%; would not vote with no voters
  162. Voting intention for an exclusively vote-by-mail election
  163. "Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  164. "Some other candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  165. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
  166. Would not vote with 4%
  167. "Other candidate" with 3%; "no one" with 1%
  168. With Justin Amash
  169. Justin Amash with 5%; "Other candidate" with 1%; "no one" with 1%
  170. Would not vote with 3%
  171. "Third party candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
  172. Would not vote with 5.2%
  173. "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  174. "Third party candidate" with 8%; "refused" with 1%
  175. "Would vote for a third party/write-in candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  176. "Third party candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 0%
  177. Would not vote with 3.5%
  178. Justin Amash with 1%; "Someone else" with 5%; Would not vote with 6%
  179. "Someone else" with 5%; Would not vote with 5%
  180. Vote shares listed as proportion of decided voters for candidate X + proportion of leaners for candidate X * proportion of voters who are leaners
  181. "Other candidate" with 5%; "No one" with 1%
  182. "Other" with 0%; “neither” with 2%
  183. "Neither/other" with 4%
  184. "Not sure" with 9%; "Depends" with 4%
  185. "Someone else" with 3%; Would not vote with 2%
  186. "Third party candidate" with 2%
  187. Would not vote with 6%
  188. "Other" with 9%; would not vote with 0%
  189. "Other" with 5%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  190. "Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  191. Would not vote with 9%
  192. Percentages calculated as listed percentage in sample without undecided voters * Percentage of voters who are not undecided
  193. "Would vote for a third party/write-in candidate" with 4%
  194. "Neither/other" with 7%; would not vote with 4%
  195. Listed as "don't know/refused"
  196. "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
  197. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  198. "Neither/other" with 8%; Would not vote with 2%
  199. "Someone else" with 1%; Would not vote with 2%
  200. "Other" with 0%; "neither" with 1%
  201. "Other" with 1%; "refused" with 1%
  202. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  203. "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  204. "Other" with 0%; "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  205. "Neither/other" with 10%; would not vote with 2%
  206. "Neither/other" with 8%; would not vote with 3%
  207. "Someone else" with 2%; Would not vote with 3%
  208. Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  209. "Some other party's candidate" with 6%
  210. "Other" with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  211. "Other" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  212. "Neither/other" with 10%; Would not vote with 7%
  213. "Neither/other" with 12%; Would not vote with 8%
  214. "Other" with 0%; "neither" with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  215. "Neither/other" with 6%
  216. Listed as "no opinion"
  217. "Neither/other" with 6%; would not vote with 3%
  218. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 6%
  219. 7% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Trump
  220. 12% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Biden
  221. "Someone else" with 13%; Would not vote with 6%; no answer with 1%
  222. See Biden and Trump notes
  223. "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 5%
  224. "Other" with 8%; would not vote with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. The Conservative Energy Network primarily supports Republican candidates
  2. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  3. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act Organisation
  4. Giffords is a PAC which supports gun control measures
  5. This poll was sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic Senate candidates, and Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC
  6. The 314 Action Fund is a PAC which supports the election of scientists
  7. The poll's sponsor is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  8. This poll's sponsor, Protect Our Care, is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
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References

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