Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2025

Date	Brand	Interview mode	Sample size	Primary vote							2PP vote[a]
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	UND	ALP	L/NP
18–30 Jul 2025	Wolf & Smith[1][2]		5,000	36%	30%						57%	43%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[3]	Online	5,159	36.5%	31%	12%	7%	—	13.5%	—	57%	43%
13–18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4]	Telephone/Online	2,311	35%	29%	12%	8%	8%	8%	—	56%	44%
14–17 Jul 2025	Newspoll[5][6]	Online	1,264	36%	29%	12%	8%	—	15%	—	57%	43%
5–6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[7]	Online	1,199	36%	26%	14%	9%	—	15%	—	59%	41%
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025	Spectre Strategy[8]	Online	1,001	35.9%	31%	12.8%	7.9%	—	12.3%	—	56.5%	43.5%
Late June 2025[b]	Redbridge[9]	Online	4,036	37%	31%	11%	—	—	—	—	55.5%	44.5%
23–29 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[10]	Online	1,522	36.5%	30.5%	12%	8.5%	—	12.5%	—	57.5%	42.5%
2–22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[11]	Online	3,957	37.5%	31%	12%	6%	—	13.5%	—	58%	42%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	Online	5,128	37%	31%	11.5%	6%	—	14.5%	—	58.5%	41.5%
20–28 May 2025	The Liberal–National Coalition is temporarily dissolved
13 May 2025	Sussan Ley elected as Leader of the Liberal Party and the Opposition, replacing Peter Dutton
3 May 2025	Election[13]			34.6%	31.8%	12.2%	6.4%	7.4%	7.6%	—	55.2%	44.8%

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

2025

Date	Firm	Interview mode	Sample	Preferred prime minister				Albanese				Ley
				Albanese	Ley	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
18–30 Jul 2025	Wolf & Smith[1][2]		5,000	45%	35%	20%	+10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24 – 29 July 2025	Essential[14]	Online	1,012	—	—	—	—	50%	41%	9%	+9%	33%	35%	33%	-2%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4]	Telephone/Online	2,311	40%	25%	35%	+15%	45%	42%	13%	+3%	38%	29%	33%	+7%
14 – 17 Jul 2025	Newspoll[5][6]	Online	1,264	52%	32%	16%	+20%	47%	47%	6%	0%	35%	42%	23%	–7%
4 – 10 Jul 2025	Morning Consult[15]	Online	3,770	—	—	—	—	54%	35%	11%	+19%	—	—	—	—
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025	Spectre Strategy[8]	Online	1,001	46%	27%	27%	+19%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3 – 9 Jun 2025	Morning Consult[15]	Online	3,770	—	—	—	—	53%	36%	11%	+17%	—	—	—	—
7 – 11 May 2025	Essential[16]	Online	1,137	—	—	—	—	50%	39%	11%	+11%	—	—	—	—
2 – 8 May 2025	Morning Consult[15]	Online	3,770	—	—	—	—	57%	33%	9%	+24%	—	—	—	—

National direction polling

Individual polls

Date	Firm	Right direction	Wrong direction	Can't say	Lead
24 – 29 July 2025	Essential[14]	38%	45%	17%	–7%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	37%	46.5%	16.5%	–9.5%
23 Jun – 29 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[10]	38.5%	46%	15.5%	–7.5%
2 Jun – 22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[11]	43%	41.5%	15.5%	+1.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[17]	41%	44%	15%	–3%
7 – 11 May 2025	Essential[18]	37%	42%	21%	–5%

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[c]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	56.5%	43.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4][d]	2,311	36%	31%	11%	8%	7%	6%	55%	44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	59%	41%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		35.2%	31.5%	11.1%	6.0%	9.7%	6.5%	55.3%	44.7%

Victoria

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[e]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	57.5%	42.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4][f]	2,311	38%	28%	13%	8%	6%	8%	60%	41%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		34.0%	32.2%	13.6%	5.8%	7.6%	6.8%	56.3%	43.7%

Queensland

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[g]
			LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	46.5%	53.5%
13 – 18 July 2025	Resolve[4][h]	2,311	31%	31%	11%	10%	8%	8%	48%	51%
4 July – 9 July 2025	DemosAU[19][20]	1,027	35%	31%	12%	13%	—	9%	47%	53%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.5%	52.5%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		34.9%	31.0%	11.8%	7.8%	3.8%	10.7%	50.6%	49.4%

Western Australia

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.5%	45.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	58.5%	41.5%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		35.6%	31.5%	12.0%	7.6%	6.2%	7.1%	55.8%	44.2%

South Australia

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	62%	38%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	58.5%	41.5%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		38.3%	28.0%	13.4%	6.2%	3.4%	10.7%	59.2%	40.8%

Tasmania

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	61%	39%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	70.5%	29.5%
3 May 2025	Election[13]		36.6%	24.5%	11.1%	6.1%	18.1%	3.6%	63.3%	36.7%

ACT

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	Election[13]		47.5%	21.2%	15.1%	12.8%	3.4%	72.5%	27.5%

Northern Territory

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	CLP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	CLP
3 May 2025	Election[13]		37.9%	33.8%	10.2%	7.7%	7.7%	2.5%	54.3%	45.7%

Individual seat polling

Bradfield

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	LIB	IND
Jun 2025	uComms[i][21]	1,147	—	37.3%	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.0%	27.0%	20.3%	6.7%	1.6%	6.4%	49.99%	50.01%

Subpopulation results

By gender

Women

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2pp vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4][f]	2,311	36%	27%	14%	7%	9%	8%	59.5%	41.5%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[7]	1,199	36%	25%	15%	15%	—	10%	60%	40%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[22]	4,036	36%	30%	13%	—	—	—	56%	44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	61%	39%

Men

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2pp vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.5%	45.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4][f]	2,311	34%	31%	11%	9%	8%	8%	55%	46%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[7]	1,199	36%	28%	12%	9%	—	15%	57%	43%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[23]	4,036	39%	32%	8%	—	—	—	54%	46%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.5%	44.5%

By age

18–34

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[3]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	69%	31%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[4]	2,311	37%	18%	28%	5%	6%	6%	—	—
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[7]	1,199	39%	16%	31%	4%	—	10%	73%	27%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[24]	4,036	40%	19%	24%	—	—	—	68%	32%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	70%	30%

35–49

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2pp vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	58%	42%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[25]	4,036	37%	25%	11%	—	—	—	57%	43%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	62.5%	37.5%

50–64

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2pp vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,159	—	—	—	—	—	—	53%	47%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[26]	4,036	37%	34%	5%	—	—	—	50%	50%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	53%	47%

65+

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2pp vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	48%	52%
Late June 2025	Redbridge[27]	4,036	36%	44%	2%	—	—	—	45%	55%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[12]	5,128	—	—	—	—	—	—	48.5%	51.5%

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election
• Post-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election

Notes

1. Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
2. Exact fieldwork dates were not specified.
3. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales.
4. Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
5. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Victoria.
6. Primary and 2PP vote sum is greater than 100 due to rounding.
7. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Queensland.
8. Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
9. Commissioned by Climate 200.
10. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.