Revolutions in autocracies after military defeats

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Russian Empire (1905)

Military defeat: Russo-Japanese War (February 1904 – September 1905).

Revolution: Russian Revolution of 1905, beginning January 1905.

Time gap: Overlapping.

According to Steinberg (2017), Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War undermined the authority of Tsar Nicholas II and sparked widespread protests and strikes. Although the revolution began before the formal end of the war, major military defeats like the fall of Port Arthur and the Battle of Mukden heightened popular discontent. The revolution did not end in regime over through but rather resulted in limited reforms, including the establishment of the Duma (parliament).^[8]

Russia (1917)

Military defeat: Series of defeats during World War I, especially 1916–1917.

Revolution: February Revolution, 1917.

Time gap: Within months.

According to Steinberg (2017), wartime hardships, military failures, and logistical breakdowns led to massive protests and mutinies in early 1917. The February Revolution forced Tsar Nicholas II to stepdown, ending centuries of Romanov rule and initiating a provisional government.^[8]

Austria-Hungary (1918)

Defeat: October - November 1918 (Collapse in WWI).

Revolution: November 1918 - Disintegration of Empire.

Time Gap: Immediate.

Mason (1997) and Roháč (2008) asserts that the Austro-Hungarian empire broke apart rapidly as military defeat coincided with nationalist uprisings and political collapse.^[9]^[10]

German Empire (1918)

Military defeat: Armistice of 11 November 1918.

Revolution: German Revolution of 1918–1919.

Time gap: Immediate (within days).

Days before the German surrender was signed in a railroad car, in the Compiègne Forest near the town of Compiègne, or as it known by the name the Armistice of 11 November 1918, the German Revolution of 1918–1919 outbroke.

Frie (2022) claims that Germany's defeat in World War I led directly to the collapse of the German Empire. Days before the armistice was signed, mutinies by sailors in Kiel triggered nationwide unrest. The abdication of Kaiser Wilhelm II on 9 November 1918 and the proclamation of the Weimar Republic marked a swift transition from monarchy to republic.^[11]

Ottoman Empire (1918–1923)

Military defeat: Armistice of Mudros, 30 October 1918.

Revolution: Turkish War of Independence, beginning 19 May 1919.

Time gap: ~7 months.

According to Palmer (2011), following its defeat in World War I by the allied forces, the Ottoman Empire experienced growing nationalist resistance. Led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the Turkish nationalist movement rejected the Treaty of Sèvres and waged a successful revolution, resulting in the abolition of the Sultanate in 1922 and the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923.^[12]

Hungary (1919)

Defeat: November 1918 - Austro-Hungarian collapse.

Revolution: March 1919 - Hungarian Soviet Republic.

Time gap: ~4 months.

As described by Deak (1968), in postwar chaos, communists seized power briefly in response to territorial losses and foreign intervention.^[13]

Imperial Japan (1945)

Military defeat: Surrender of Japan, 15 August 1945.

Revolution/Transition: U.S.-led democratization, 1945–1947.

Time gap: Immediate.

As noted by Dower (2000) Japan underwent a profound regime transformation after its surrender in World War II, though not a popular revolution. Under U.S. occupation, the 1947 constitution abolished the divine status of the emperor and established a parliamentary democracy.^[14]

Greece (1974)

Defeat: July 1974 - Turkish invasion of Cyprus.

Revolution: July 1974 - Collapse of junta.

Time gap: Immediate (within days).

Clogg (2021) describes that the military failure in Cyprus prompted the fall of the Greek dictatorship and a swift return to civilian rule.^[15]

Argentina (1982–1983)

Military defeat: Falklands War, ending 14 June 1982.

Revolution/Transition: Democratic elections, 30 October 1983.

Time gap: ~16 months.

Lewis (2002) analysis suggests that Argentina’s defeat by the United Kingdom in the Falklands War discredited the ruling military junta, which had governed since 1976. The loss, combined with economic instability and widespread human rights abuses, led to public outcry and a transition to democratic rule. Civilian president Raúl Alfonsín was elected in 1983.^[16]

Iran (1988)

Military defeat: Ceasefire ending the Iran–Iraq War, August 1988.

Revolution: None, the regime survived.

Hiro (1991) study of the Iran-Iraq war points out that despite immense economic and human costs, the Islamic Republic of Iran remained intact after the war. The government repressed dissent and maintained control.^[17]

Iraq (1991)

Military defeat: Gulf War, ending 28 February 1991.

Revolutionary attempt: 1991 Iraqi uprisings (March–April 1991).

Time gap: ~1 week.

According to The human rights watch (1992) and Tripp (2002), following Iraq's defeat by U.S.-led coalition forces in the Gulf War, mass uprisings erupted in the Shi'a south and Kurdish north. Starting in early March 1991, just days after the ceasefire, millions of Iraqis took to the streets in rebellion against the Ba'athist regime led by Saddam Hussein. Despite initial rebel successes and desertions from the military, the regime violently suppressed the uprisings within weeks, using tanks, helicopter gunships, and mass executions. U.S. forces did not intervene, allowing Saddam to retain power.^[18]^[19]