2024 United States presidential election in Florida

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.^[3] This gave Florida the third-most electoral votes in the country, which marked the first time it carried more weight than New York (28 electoral votes) in a presidential election.

2024 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	78.9% (of active registered voters)[1] 1.73 pp 66.7% (of estimated voting-eligible population)[2]
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 30 0 Popular vote 6,110,125 4,683,038 Percentage 56.09% 42.99%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/no data
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

A heavily populated South Atlantic state, Florida had previously been considered a crucial swing state and a bellwether in past elections, but has shifted significantly to the political right since the 2022 gubernatorial election where incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election with a 19.4% margin of victory. Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidified Florida further as a safe red state. Florida has two large distinct cultural areas: North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South, and South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

Trump defeated Harris in Florida by 13.1 percentage points, the biggest margin of victory for a candidate in the state since 1988. Trump won all three of the state’s majority-Hispanic counties. Per exit polls, Trump won 63% of White voters, 58% of Hispanic voters, and 15% of Black voters in the state.^[4]

Trump received the most votes for a political candidate ever in the state, breaking his previous record from 2020, and marking the first time since 1984 that a Republican won the state with a margin of over one million votes. Trump's overall total of 6.1 million votes was the second-highest total number of votes he received in any state in the country in 2024, only behind his 6.4 million in Texas.

In 2016, Trump was elected as a candidate from New York; in 2019, he formally changed his primary residence to Mar-a-Lago, becoming the first Floridian to serve as president. However, it was not until 2024 that Trump would become the first presidential candidate from Florida to be elected.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Florida Republican presidential primary

The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Florida Republican primary, March 19, 2024^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	911,424	81.19%	125	0	125
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	155,560	13.86%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	41,269	3.68%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	8,953	0.80%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,850	0.25%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	1,385	0.12%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	1,190	0.11%	0	0	0
Total:	1,122,631	100.00%	125	0	125

Democratic primary

On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which meant that the primary would be cancelled under Florida law. This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson campaigns.^[6][7] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move.^[8] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips's, Williamson's, and Uygur's names to the ballot.^[9] The voter lost in district court.^[10]

Winner (assumptive)

• President Joe Biden

Endorsements

Joe Biden

U.S. representatives

• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, FL-20 (2022–present)^[11]
• Val Demings, FL-10 (2017–2023), chief of the Orlando Police Department (2007–2011), nominee for U.S. senator from Florida in 2022^[12]
• Maxwell Frost,^[a] FL-10 (2023–present)^[13]
• Darren Soto, FL-09 (2017–present)^[11]
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL-25 (2023–present), FL-23 (2013–2023), FL-20 (2005–2013), former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2011–2016)^[11]

State legislators

• Shevrin Jones,^[a] Florida state senator from the 35th district (2020–present), state representative from the 101st district (2012–2020)^[14]

Hypothetical polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Hillary Clinton	Kamala Harris	Gavin Newsom	Undecided
Suffolk University[15]	September 15–18, 2022	163 (LV)	–	50%	–	–	33%	17%
Suffolk University[16]	January 26–29, 2022	164 (LV)	–	43%	46%	–	–	11%[c]
Victory Insights[17]	September 16–18, 2021	200 (LV)	–	60%	–	17%	–	23%[d]

General election

Trump assassination attempt

Main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Florida

On September 15, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was spotted hiding in nearby shrubbery while aiming a rifle at a member of Trump's security detail.^[18] A Secret Service agent fired upon Routh, who fled the scene and was later captured in Martin County.^[19] The incident occurred two months after Trump survived a previous assassination attempt while speaking at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.

Candidates

The following presidential candidates received ballot access in Florida:^[20]

• Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
• Donald Trump, Republican Party
• Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
• Jill Stein, Green Party
• Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
• Randall Terry, Constitution Party
• Peter Sonski, American Solidarity Party
• Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent (write-in)
• Cherunda Fox (write-in)^[21]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his name from the ballot after he suspended his campaign.^[21]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[22]	Likely R	August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[23]	Lean R	August 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]	Likely R	August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[25]	Likely R	October 21, 2024
CNalysis[26]	Likely R	November 4, 2024
CNN[27]	Lean R	September 1, 2024
The Economist[28]	Likely R	June 12, 2024
538[29]	Likely R	October 8, 2024
NBC News[30]	Likely R	October 6, 2024
YouGov[31]	Lean R	October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[32]	Likely R	November 1, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided [e]	Margin
270ToWin[33]	October 23 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	44.6%	51.1%	4.3%	Trump +6.5%
538[34]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	44.6%	51.2%	4.2%	Trump +6.6%
Silver Bulletin[35]	through November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024	44.8%	51.3%	3.9%	Trump +6.5%
The Hill/DDHQ[36]	through November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024	44.9%	51.6%	3.2%	Trump +6.7%
Average			44.7%	51.3%	4.0%	Trump +6.6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Research Co.[37]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	51%	44%	5%
Victory Insights[38]	November 1–2, 2024	400 (LV)	–	51%	47%	2%[f]
Stetson University[39][40]	October 25 – November 1, 2024	452 (LV)	± 5.0%	53%	46%	1%[g]
Morning Consult[41]	October 23 − November 1, 2024	2,022 (LV)	± 2.0%	51%	46%	3%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[42]	October 19–27, 2024	913 (RV)	± 3.2%	53%	44%	3%[h]
		897 (LV)		53%	44%	3%[h]
ActiVote[43]	October 11–27, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	56%	44%	–
St. Pete Polls[44][A]	October 23–25, 2024	1,227 (LV)	± 2.8%	50%	45%	5%[i]
CES/YouGov[45]	October 1–25, 2024	5,952 (A)	–	51%	47%	2%
		5,916 (LV)		52%	46%	2%
Hunt Research[46][B]	October 16–22, 2024	1,234 (LV)	± 2.8%	50%	45%	5%
Emerson College[47]	October 18–20, 2024	860 (LV)	± 3.3%	52%	44%	4%[g]
				54%[j]	46%	–
Cherry Communications (R)[48][C]	October 10–20, 2024	614 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	45%	4%
ActiVote[49]	October 7–20, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	45%	–
University of North Florida[50]	October 7–18, 2024	977 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	43%	4%[k]
RMG Research[51][D]	October 14–17, 2024	788 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	45%	3%[l]
				52%[j]	47%	1%
Rose Institute/YouGov[52]	October 7–17, 2024	1,094 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	45%	7%[m]
		1,094 (RV)		51%[j]	46%	3%
		1,076 (LV)		51%	46%	3%
The Terrance Group (R)[53][E]	October 5–8, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.5%	51%	44%	5%
Marist College[54]	October 3–7, 2024	1,410 (RV)	± 3.3%	51%	47%	2%[n]
		1,257 (LV)	± 3.6%	51%	47%	2%[n]
New York Times/Siena College[55]	September 29 – October 6, 2024	622 (LV)	± 5.0%	55%	41%	4%
ActiVote[56]	September 17 – October 6, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	53%	47%	–
Mason-Dixon[57][F]	October 1–4, 2024	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%[o]
RMG Research[58][D]	September 25–27, 2024	774 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	47%	3%[l]
				50%[j]	48%	2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[59][G]	September 25–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	4%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[60][H]	September 23–25, 2024	1,200 (LV)	± 2.8%	51%	46%	3%
Victory Insights[61]	September 22–25, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	45%	8%
The Bullfinch Group[62][I]	September 20–23, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	5%
Morning Consult[41]	September 9−18, 2024	2,948 (LV)	± 2.0%	50%	47%	3%
Morning Consult[41]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	3,182 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	47%	4%
Emerson College[63]	September 3–5, 2024	815 (LV)	± 3.4%	50%	45%	5%
				51%[j]	48%	1%[g]
ActiVote[64]	August 16–31, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	53%	47%	–
Cherry Communications (R)[65][C]	August 15–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	45%	3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[66][G]	August 21–22, 2024	837 (RV)	± 3.4%	51%	47%	2%
ActiVote[67]	August 5–15, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	54%	46%	–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[68]	August 10–11, 2024	1,055 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	5%[p]
		1,040 (LV)		50%	47%	3%[h]
University of North Florida[69]	July 24–27, 2024	774 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	42%	9%[q]
	July 21, 2024	Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[70][J]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	39%	12%[r]
Suffolk University/USA Today[15]	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	46%	44%	10%
Victory Insights[17]	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Focaldata[71]	October 3 – November 1, 2024	1,250 (LV)	–	52%	45%	–	0%	0%	3%
		1,099 (RV)	± 2.8%	50%	46%	–	1%	0%	3%
		1,250 (A)	–	49%	47%	–	1%	0%	3%
Cygnal (R)[72]	October 26–28, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	43%	–	1%	1%	7%[s]
Hunt Research[46][B]	October 16–22, 2024	1,234 (LV)	± 2.8%	50%	44%	–	0%	0%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[73]	October 16–18, 2024	1,275 (LV)	–	49%	45%	–	0%	1%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[74]	October 12–14, 2024	1,009 (LV)	–	50%	44%	–	1%	0%	5%
New York Times/Siena College[55]	September 29 – October 6, 2024	622 (LV)	± 5.0%	53%	40%	–	0%	1%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[75]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	2,946 (LV)	–	49%	45%	–	1%	1%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[59][G]	September 25–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	45%	0%	1%	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[76]	September 16–19, 2024	1,602 (LV)	–	50%	45%	–	0%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[77]	September 6–9, 2024	1,465 (LV)	–	50%	44%	–	0%	0%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[78]	August 25–28, 2024	980 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	43%	–	0%	1%	8%[t]

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[55]	September 29 – October 6, 2024	622 (LV)	± 5.0%	53%	40%	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[66][G]	August 21–22, 2024	837 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	45%	2%	1%	1%	–	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79]	August 12–15, 2024	1,296 (LV)	–	48%	43%	3%	–	0%	1%	5%
Suffolk University/USA Today[80][K]	August 7–11, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	42%	5%	0%	0%	1%	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[81]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	976 (LV)	–	47%	41%	5%	–	0%	1%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82]	July 22–24, 2024	572 (LV)	–	47%	39%	5%	–	0%	1%	8%
Targoz Market Research[83][L]	July 19–24, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	39%	5%	1%	1%	0%	8%
988 (LV)	47%	42%	4%	0%	0%	1%	6%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[68]	August 10–11, 2024	1,055 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	44%	5%	4%[h]
		1,040 (LV)		47%	45%	5%	3%[h]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[84][H]	August 6–8, 2024	800 (LV)	–	52%	44%	3%	1%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[70][J]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	44%	6%[u]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[85]	June 8–9, 2024	883 (RV)	± 3.3%	46%	42%	13%
		771 (LV)		49%	43%	8%
The Tyson Group (R)[86]	June 6–9, 2024	1,050 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	36%	18%
Fox News[87]	June 1–4, 2024	1,075 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	46%	4%
CBS News/YouGov[88]	May 10–16, 2024	1,209 (RV)	± 3.9%	54%	45%	1%
Prime Group[89][M]	May 9–16, 2024	486 (RV)	–	53%	47%	–
Cherry Communications (R)[90][C]	April 28 – May 7, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	42%	7%
John Zogby Strategies[91][N]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	51%	42%	7%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[92]	April 15–17, 2024	865 (RV)	± 3.3%	50%	42%	8%
		815 (LV)		51%	43%	6%
Emerson College[93]	April 9–10, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	38%	11%
				56%[j]	44%	–
St. Pete Polls[94]	March 11–13, 2024	1,963 (LV)	± 2.2%	48%	42%	10%
Cygnal (R)[95]	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	43%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[96]	October 27 – November 11, 2023	946 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	39%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[97]	October 7–9, 2023	1,100 (RV)	–	44%	39%	17%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[98]	June 27 – July 1, 2023	933 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	39%	2%
Metropolitan Research Services[99]	March 15–19, 2023	1,001 (RV)	–	47%	43%	10%
Emerson College[100]	March 13–15, 2023	1,153 (RV)	± 2.8%	44%	44%	12%
University of North Florida[101]	February 25 – March 7, 2023	1,452 (RV)	± 2.6%	50%	43%	7%
Victory Insights[102]	November 16–17, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	49%	51%	–
Rasmussen Reports (R)[103][O]	November 8–9, 2022	1,224 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Florida Atlantic University[104]	October 12–16, 2022	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	41%	14%
Suffolk University[15]	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	47%	44%	9%
Echelon Insights[105]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	815 (LV)	± 4.3%	49%	41%	10%
Suffolk University[16]	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	44%	9%
Victory Insights[17]	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–
St. Pete Polls[106][A]	August 16–17, 2021	2,068 (RV)	± 2.2%	47%	48%	5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[107][P]	August 4–10, 2021	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	42%	50%	8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research[83][L]	July 19–24, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	35%	6%	0%	1%	11%[v]
988 (LV)	46%	39%	5%	0%	1%	9%[w]
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Fox News[87]	June 1–4, 2024	1,075 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	40%	7%	2%	1%	3%
Prime Group[89][M]	May 9–16, 2024	486 (RV)	–	48%	39%	9%	3%	1%	–
Emerson College[93]	April 9–10, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	35%	6%	1%	1%	8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[85]	June 8–9, 2024	883 (A)	± 3.3%	43%	37%	10%	10%
		771 (LV)		45%	40%	8%	6%
Cherry Communications (R)[90][C]	April 28 – May 7, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	37%	10%	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[108]	May 2–4, 2024	586 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	38%	6%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[92]	April 15–17, 2024	865 (RV)	± 3.3%	48%	38%	7%	7%
		815 (LV)		49%	40%	6%	5%
USA Today/Ipsos[109]	April 5–7, 2024	1,014 (A)	± 4.1%	39%	31%	7%	23%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[110]	March 14–17, 2024	815 (LV)	–	46%	39%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111]	December 28–30, 2023	1,147 (LV)	–	45%	34%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112]	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	44%	34%	9%	13%
Cygnal (R)[95]	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	44%	37%	11%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[97]	October 7–9, 2023	1100 (LV)	–	44%	37%	8%	11%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[91][N]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	48%	37%	15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[91][N]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	47%	40%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Hillary Clinton Democratic	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University[16]	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	42%	9%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112]	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	27%	32%	16%	24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112]	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	16%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)[95]	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	46%	43%	11%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[96]	October 27 – November 11, 2023	946 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	39%	15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[98]	June 27 – July 1, 2023	933 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	36%	15%
Emerson College[100]	March 13–15, 2023	1,153 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	43%	11%
University of North Florida[101]	February 25 – March 7, 2023	1,452 (RV)	± 2.6%	51%	42%	8%
Cherry Communications[113][C]	February 10–19, 2023	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	38%	13%
Victory Insights[102]	November 16–17, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%	47%	–
Suffolk University[15]	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	52%	44%	4%
Echelon Insights[105]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	815 (LV)	± 4.3%	51%	42%	7%
Suffolk University[16]	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	44%	4%
Victory Insights[17]	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[114]	September 11–12, 2021	1,144 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	55%	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[107]	August 4–10, 2021	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	49%	4%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University[15]	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	52%	40%	8%
Victory Insights[17]	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	51%	49%	–

Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Hillary Clinton Democratic	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University[16]	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	53%	40%	7%

Results

State Senate district results

2024 United States presidential election in Florida^[115][1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	6,110,125	56.09%	+4.87%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	4,683,038	42.99%	−4.87%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	43,155	0.40%	+0.27%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	31,972	0.29%	−0.35%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	11,969	0.11%	+0.06%
	American Solidarity	Peter Sonski Lauren Onak	7,454	0.07%	N/A
	Constitution	Randall Terry Stephen Broden	5,834	0.05%	+0.01%
	Write-in		205	0.00%	N/A
Total valid votes			10,893,752	99.00%	−0.31%
Invalid or blank votes			110,457	1.00%
Turnout			11,004,209	78.89%	+1.72%
Registered electors			13,949,168	100.00%	−3.41%

By county

County[116]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Alachua	52,939	38.56%	81,578	59.42%	2,765	2.02%	-28,639	-20.86%	137,282
Baker	12,926	86.11%	1,982	13.20%	103	0.69%	10,944	72.91%	15,011
Bay	71,497	72.84%	25,201	25.67%	1,459	1.49%	46,296	47.17%	98,157
Bradford	10,920	78.27%	2,946	21.12%	86	0.61%	7,974	57.15%	13,952
Brevard	216,533	59.65%	141,233	38.91%	5,249	1.44%	75,300	20.74%	363,015
Broward	358,952	40.92%	507,328	57.83%	10,982	1.25%	-148,376	-16.91%	877,262
Calhoun	5,367	83.29%	1,021	15.84%	56	0.87%	4,346	67.45%	6,444
Charlotte	82,480	66.45%	40,450	32.59%	1,188	0.96%	42,030	33.86%	124,118
Citrus	71,356	72.41%	26,276	26.67%	908	0.92%	45,080	45.74%	98,540
Clay	87,711	68.90%	37,926	29.79%	1,665	1.31%	49,785	39.11%	127,302
Collier	143,267	65.89%	71,720	32.98%	2,447	1.13%	71,547	32.91%	217,434
Columbia	25,108	74.53%	8,250	24.49%	332	0.98%	16,858	50.04%	33,690
DeSoto	8,888	70.96%	3,525	28.14%	112	0.90%	5,363	42.82%	12,525
Dixie	6,920	84.77%	1,183	14.49%	60	0.74%	5,737	70.28%	8,163
Duval	236,285	49.92%	229,365	48.46%	7,683	1.62%	6,920	1.46%	473,333
Escambia	96,407	58.96%	64,601	39.51%	2,496	1.53%	31,806	19.45%	163,504
Flagler	51,014	63.59%	28,431	35.44%	772	0.97%	22,583	28.15%	80,217
Franklin	4,831	71.20%	1,870	27.56%	84	1.24%	2,961	43.64%	6,785
Gadsden	7,495	34.17%	14,203	64.76%	234	1.07%	-6,708	-30.59%	21,932
Gilchrist	8,931	83.27%	1,662	15.50%	132	1.23%	7,269	67.77%	10,725
Glades	4,034	76.11%	1,222	23.06%	44	0.83%	2,812	53.05%	5,300
Gulf	6,684	76.62%	1,970	22.58%	70	0.80%	4,714	54.04%	8,724
Hamilton	3,964	68.92%	1,727	30.02%	61	1.06%	2,237	38.90%	5,752
Hardee	6,336	77.65%	1,751	21.46%	73	0.89%	4,585	56.19%	8,160
Hendry	9,253	68.61%	4,096	30.37%	138	1.02%	5,157	38.24%	13,487
Hernando	75,446	67.94%	34,431	31.00%	1,175	1.06%	41,015	36.94%	111,052
Highlands	36,382	69.92%	15,227	29.27%	422	0.81%	21,155	40.65%	52,031
Hillsborough	342,017	50.68%	321,455	47.63%	11,435	1.69%	20,562	3.05%	674,907
Holmes	8,193	89.72%	882	9.66%	57	0.62%	7,311	80.06%	9,132
Indian River	62,737	63.06%	35,654	35.84%	1,102	1.10%	27,083	27.22%	99,493
Jackson	16,074	72.56%	5,892	26.60%	186	0.84%	10,182	45.96%	22,152
Jefferson	5,011	58.73%	3,429	40.19%	92	1.08%	1,582	18.54%	8,532
Lafayette	3,296	87.50%	441	11.71%	30	0.79%	2,855	75.79%	3,767
Lake	140,500	61.75%	84,546	37.16%	2,468	1.09%	55,954	24.59%	227,514
Lee	250,661	63.60%	139,240	35.33%	4,204	1.07%	111,421	28.27%	394,105
Leon	60,397	38.29%	94,520	59.93%	2,810	1.78%	-34,123	-21.64%	157,727
Levy	18,245	74.62%	5,994	24.51%	212	0.87%	12,251	50.11%	24,451
Liberty	2,898	82.89%	566	16.19%	32	0.92%	2,332	66.70%	3,496
Madison	5,874	64.01%	3,231	35.21%	71	0.78%	2,643	28.80%	9,176
Manatee	140,486	61.13%	86,674	37.72%	2,652	1.15%	53,812	23.41%	229,812
Marion	140,173	65.27%	72,436	33.73%	2,134	1.00%	67,737	31.54%	214,743
Martin	64,121	64.90%	33,539	33.95%	1,136	1.15%	30,582	30.95%	98,796
Miami-Dade	605,590	55.19%	480,355	43.78%	11,264	1.03%	125,235	11.41%	1,097,209
Monroe	26,064	58.57%	17,933	40.30%	505	1.13%	8,131	18.27%	44,502
Nassau	47,945	72.72%	17,143	26.00%	846	1.28%	30,802	46.72%	65,934
Okaloosa	80,309	70.31%	32,074	28.08%	1,842	1.61%	48,235	42.23%	114,225
Okeechobee	12,315	76.51%	3,671	22.81%	110	0.68%	8,644	53.70%	16,096
Orange	258,279	42.37%	340,807	55.91%	10,521	1.72%	-82,528	-13.54%	609,607
Osceola	86,713	50.04%	84,205	48.59%	2,371	1.37%	2,508	1.45%	173,289
Palm Beach	366,836	49.20%	372,512	50.00%	4,775	0.80%	-5,676	-0.76%	748,489
Pasco	197,779	61.87%	117,450	36.74%	4,435	1.39%	80,329	25.13%	319,664
Pinellas	269,472	51.89%	242,452	46.68%	7,416	1.43%	27,020	5.21%	519,340
Polk	209,044	59.71%	136,879	39.10%	4,191	1.19%	72,165	20.61%	350,114
Putnam	26,700	73.41%	9,354	25.72%	316	0.87%	17,346	47.69%	36,370
St. Johns	128,759	64.87%	66,862	33.68%	2,875	1.45%	61,897	31.19%	198,496
St. Lucie	100,293	54.00%	83,517	44.97%	1,922	1.03%	16,776	9.03%	185,732
Santa Rosa	84,314	74.67%	27,035	23.94%	1,561	1.39%	57,279	50.73%	112,910
Sarasota	163,219	58.48%	112,668	40.37%	3,214	1.15%	50,551	18.11%	279,101
Seminole	129,735	50.90%	120,717	47.37%	4,408	1.73%	9,018	3.53%	254,860
Sumter	72,134	68.30%	32,551	30.82%	923	0.88%	39,583	37.48%	105,608
Suwannee	17,561	79.98%	4,217	19.21%	179	0.81%	13,344	60.77%	21,957
Taylor	7,954	79.37%	1,991	19.87%	77	0.76%	5,963	59.50%	10,022
Union	5,224	83.64%	971	15.55%	51	0.81%	4,253	68.09%	6,246
Volusia	187,691	60.23%	120,132	38.55%	3,821	1.22%	67,559	21.68%	311,644
Wakulla	14,246	71.51%	5,441	27.31%	236	1.18%	8,805	44.20%	19,923
Walton	38,970	78.25%	10,287	20.66%	545	1.09%	28,683	57.59%	49,802
Washington	10,370	82.14%	2,140	16.95%	115	0.91%	8,230	65.19%	12,625
Totals	6,110,125	55.87%	4,683,038	42.82%	142,302	1.31%	1,427,087	13.05%	10,935,465

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)^[117]
• Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)^[117]
• Miami-Dade (largest municipality: Miami)^[117]
• Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)^[117]
• Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)^[117]
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)^[117]

Swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 20 of 28 congressional districts.^[118]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	67.7%	30.8%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	58.4%	40.3%	Neal Dunn
3rd	59.8%	38.9%	Kat Cammack
4th	55.2%	43.4%	Aaron Bean
5th	59.9%	38.5%	John Rutherford
6th	64.5%	34.5%	Michael Waltz
7th	55.4%	43.0%	Cory Mills
8th	60.4%	38.2%	Bill Posey (118th Congress)
			Mike Haridopolos (119th Congress)
9th	47.5%	51.0%	Darren Soto
10th	37.8%	60.4%	Maxwell Frost
11th	57.4%	41.8%	Daniel Webster
12th	66.7%	32.2%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	55.2%	43.4%	Anna Paulina Luna
14th	45.4%	53.0%	Kathy Castor
15th	54.6%	43.5%	Laurel Lee
16th	57.1%	41.7%	Vern Buchanan
17th	61.4%	37.5%	Greg Steube
18th	64.1%	34.8%	Scott Franklin
19th	64.0%	34.9%	Byron Donalds
20th	29.7%	69.2%	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st	57.7%	41.2%	Brian Mast
22nd	46.6%	52.2%	Lois Frankel
23rd	48.4%	50.3%	Jared Moskowitz
24th	34.5%	64.3%	Frederica Wilson
25th	46.7%	52.0%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th	67.2%	31.9%	Mario Díaz-Balart
27th	56.9%	42.0%	María Elvira Salazar
28th	62.2%	36.8%	Carlos A. Giménez

Analysis

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019^[119]) carried the state again by 3.4 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms.^[120][121]

A heavily populated South Atlantic state, Florida had formerly been considered a crucial swing state and a bellwether in previous election cycles, but has shifted significantly to the political right and is now considered a safe red state with Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidifying it as such. Florida has two large distinct cultural areas. North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South. South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence, with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Central and South American populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

Florida handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 1,427,087 votes—his second-largest state win in terms of vote count, behind Texas. This was the first time since 1988 that the state was won with a double-digit margin, and that Miami-Dade County voted Republican.^[122] It was also the first time since 1992 that the state voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections. Trump became the first Republican nominee to win Hillsborough County and Osceola County since 2004.^[123] He also flipped back Duval County, Pinellas County, and Seminole County after carrying them in 2016.^[124] Trump narrowly lost his home county of Palm Beach. Following the 2022 midterms under Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, this election has cemented Florida's transition from a swing state to a reliable red state.

Because of Trump winning a majority of Hispanics in Florida, Harris’ two strongest counties in the state were majority-Black Gadsden County and 30% Black Leon County (home to the state capital of Tallahassee), with the former being the only county where she won at least 60% of the vote. In Broward County (home to Fort Lauderdale), Harris won less than 60% of the vote, the lowest for a Democratic candidate there since 1992.

Florida had the third-largest swing to the right in this election (after New York and New Jersey), with Trump improving his performance from 2020 by 9.7%. It was also the largest swing to the right in a state he won.

Exit poll data

2024 presidential election in Florida voter demographics[125]
Demographic subgroup	Trump	Harris	% of total vote
Ideology
Liberals	12	87	19
Moderates	46	53	44
Conservatives	91	9	38
Party
Democrats	2	97	25
Republicans	93	6	39
Independents	53	45	36
Gender
Men	62	38	46
Women	51	48	54
Race/ethnicity
White	63	37	59
Black	15	83	12
Latino	58	42	24
Asian	n/a	n/a	2
All other races	71	28	3
Cuban/Puerto Rican descent
Cuban descent	70	30	6
Puerto Rican descent	45	53	7
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	68	31	27
White women	58	41	32
Black men	23	76	5
Black women	11	88	7
Latino men	63	37	12
Latina women	52	46	12
All other races	70	29	5
Age
18–29 years old	44	56	14
30–44 years old	56	43	23
45–64 years old	59	40	35
65 and older	58	41	28
First time voter
Yes	51	49	11
No	57	42	89
2020 presidential vote
Biden	7	92	38
Trump	97	3	48
Another candidate	n/a	n/a	2
Did not vote	53	47	11
Education
No college degree	58	41	64
College graduate	53	46	36
Education by race
White college graduates	56	43	24
White no college degree	67	32	35
Non-white college graduates	46	53	12
Non-white no college degree	47	53	28
Area type
Urban	50	49	46
Suburban	61	38	46
Rural	64	35	8
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove	94	5	50
Somewhat disapprove	52	46	14
Somewhat approve	5	95	18
Strongly approve	2	97	16
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Angry	79	20	27
Dissatisfied	59	40	51
Satisfied	17	83	15
Enthusiastic	n/a	n/a	5
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead	73	27	34
Can bring needed change	75	23	28
Has good judgment	18	80	18
Cares about people like me	30	70	18
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate	61	38	76
Against their opponent	35	63	21
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy	17	82	30
Economy	80	20	38
Abortion	20	80	11
Immigration	86	14	16
Foreign policy	n/a	n/a	3
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened	56	44	40
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened	57	43	33
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure	49	50	17
Democracy in the U.S. very secure	n/a	n/a	8
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident	48	51	38
Somewhat confident	59	40	43
Not very confident	63	35	13
Not at all confident	n/a	n/a	4
Condition of the nation's economy
Poor	86	13	40
Not so good	61	37	31
Good	8	91	22
Excellent	n/a	n/a	6
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago	84	15	55
About the same	26	72	25
Better than four years ago	13	86	19
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases	24	74	27
Legal in most cases	46	53	37
Illegal in most cases	94	6	27
Illegal in all cases	n/a	n/a	5

See also

• 2024 Florida Amendment 3 (a voter initiative that occurred on the same day as the presidential election)
• 2024 Florida Amendment 4 (a referendum that occurred on the same day as the presidential election)
• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Florida elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board member
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Refused" with 1%
4. "Someone else" with 23%
5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. "Other" with 2%
7. "Someone else" with 1%
8. "Another candidate" with 1%
9. "Someone else" with 3%
10. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
11. "Someone else" with 2%
12. "Some other candidate" with 1%
13. "Other" with 5%
14. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
15. "One of the other party tickets" with 2%
16. "Another candidate" with 2%
17. "Another candidate" with 4%
18. "Another candidate" with 7%
19. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Peter Sonski (ASP) with 1% each; Randall Terry (C) with 0%
20. "Other (another third party/write-in)" with 1%
21. "Another candidate" with 3%
22. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
23. Chase Oliver (L) with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for Florida Politics
2. Poll conducted for Florida State University
3. Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
4. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
5. Poll sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida
6. Poll conducted for WTVJ & WSCV
7. Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
8. Poll sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida
9. Poll conducted for The Independent Center
10. Poll conducted for WTVT
11. Poll sponsored by WSVN-TV
12. Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
13. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third-party candidates
14. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
15. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
16. Poll sponsored by BUSR