2020 United States presidential election in Florida

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.^[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	77.17% (of registered voters)[1] 2.69 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 29 0 Popular vote 5,668,731 5,297,045 Percentage 51.22% 47.86%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.^[a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.^[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen.^[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016.^[7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020 also becoming the first former vice-president to run for president since Walter Mondale in 1984.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by 1 to 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016 by 2.2 points. This was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012.^[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.^[9][10]

In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. As of the 2024 presidential election, this was the only election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since 1992. Despite the overall rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948. Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Florida since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]

2020 Florida Republican presidential primary^[11][12]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)	1,162,984	93.79	122
Bill Weld	39,319	3.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	25,464	2.05
Rocky De La Fuente	12,172	0.98
Total	1,239,939	100%	122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.^[13][14][15]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.^[16]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]

Popular vote share by county

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Biden—70–80%

  Biden—80–90%

2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary^[17]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[18]
Joe Biden	1,077,375	61.95	162
Bernie Sanders	397,311	22.84	57
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b]	146,544	8.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	39,886	2.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b]	32,875	1.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	17,276	0.99
Tulsi Gabbard	8,712	0.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	5,286	0.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	4,244	0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	2,510	0.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	1,744	0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn)	1,583	0.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	1,507	0.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn)	1,036	0.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	664	0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	661	0.04
Total	1,739,214	100%	219

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report[19]	Tossup
Inside Elections[20]	Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21]	Lean R
Politico[22]	Tossup
RCP[23]	Tossup
Niskanen[24]	Tossup
CNN[25]	Tossup
The Economist[26]	Lean D (flip)
CBS News[27]	Tossup
270towin[28]	Tossup
ABC News[29]	Tossup
NPR[30]	Tossup
NBC News[31]	Lean D (flip)
538[32]	Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided[c]	Margin
270 to Win[33]	October 24 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	48.7%	46.0%	5.3%	Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics[34]	October 28 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	47.9%	47.0%	5.1%	Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight[35]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	49.1%	46.6%	4.3%	Biden +2.5
Average			48.6%	46.5%	4.9%	Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[d]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35[36]	Nov 1–2, 2020[e]	400 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	2%	-	–	3%
Trafalgar Group[37]	Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020	1,054 (LV)	± 2.94%	49%	47%	2%	-	1%[f]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	8,792 (LV)	± 1.5%	49%[g]	49%	-	-	–	–
AYTM/Aspiration[39]	Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020	517 (LV)	–	43%	45%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC[40]	Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020	806 (LV)	± 3.45%	48%	51%	0%	0%	–	1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[41][A]	Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	46%	2%	-	2%[h]	3%
Quinnipiac University[42]	Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020	1,657 (LV)	± 2.4%	42%	47%	-	-	1%[f]	9%
Swayable[43]	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	1,261 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	53%	1%	1%	–	–
Data for Progress[44]	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	1,202 (LV)	± 2.8%	48%	51%	1%	1%	0%[i]	–
Ipsos/Reuters[45]	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	670 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%[j]	50%	1%	0%	1%[k]	–
				46%[l]	50%	-	-	2%[m]	2%
				47%[n]	51%	-	-	2%[o]	–
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[46][B]	Oct 30–31, 2020	768 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[47]	Oct 29–31, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	-	-	3%[p]	–
Siena College/NYT Upshot[48]	Oct 27–31, 2020	1,451 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	47%	2%	1%	0%[q]	6%[r]
Morning Consult[49]	Oct 22–31, 2020	4,451 (LV)	± 2%	45%	52%	-	-	–	–
St. Pete Polls[50]	Oct 29–30, 2020	2,758 (LV)	± 1.9%	48%	49%	1%	-	–	2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[51]	Oct 28–30, 2020	1,200 (LV)	± 2.8%	47%[j]	51%	-	-	2%[o]	0%
				45%[s]	52%	-	-	2%[o]	0%
				48%[t]	49%	-	-	2%[o]	0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[52]	Oct 25–30, 2020	1,027 (LV)	–	47%	51%	-	-	2%[u]	–
AtlasIntel[53]	Oct 28–29, 2020	786 (LV)	± 3%	48.5%	48.5%	-	-	–	3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[54][C]	Oct 28–29, 2020	941 (V)	–	45%	52%	-	-	–	3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill[55]	Oct 26–29, 2020	1,148 (LV)	± ≥3%	47%	50%	-	-	–	3%
ABC/Washington Post[56]	Oct 24–29, 2020	824 (LV)	± 4%	50%	48%	1%	0%	0%[v]	0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[57]	Oct 27–28, 2020	1,587 (LV)	–	46%	50%	1%	0%	0%	3%
Trafalgar Group[58]	Oct 25–28, 2020	1,088 (LV)	± 2.89%	50%	47%	2%	-	1%[f]	1%
Monmouth University[59]	Oct 24–28, 2020	509 (RV)	± 4.7%	45%	50%	1%	0%	1%[w]	2%
		509 (LV)		45%[x]	51%	-	-	–	–
				46%[y]	50%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Oct 1–28, 2020	14,571 (LV)	–	50%	48%	-	-	–	–
Marist College/NBC[60]	Oct 25–27, 2020	743 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	51%	-	-	1%	1%
Quinnipiac University[61]	Oct 23–27, 2020	1,324 (LV)	± 2.7%	42%	45%	-	-	1%[f]	11%
Ipsos/Reuters[62]	Oct 21–27, 2020	704 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%[j]	48%	1%	1%	2%[z]	–
				47%[l]	49%	-	-	3%[aa]	2%
Swayable[63]	Oct 23–26, 2020	605 (LV)	± 5.4%	51%	46%	2%	1%	–	–
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University[64]	Oct 16–26, 2020	1,200 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	48%	-	-	–	6%
Wick Surveys[65]	Oct 24–25, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	50%	47%	-	-	–	–
Florida Atlantic University[66]	Oct 24–25, 2020	937 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	50%	-	-	2%[ab]	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[67][A]	Oct 23–25, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	44%	2%	-	3%[ac]	3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[68]	Oct 17–25, 2020	743 (RV)	± 3.56%	46%	49%	-	-	2%[ab]	3%
Ryan Tyson (R)[69]	Released Oct 24, 2020	– (V)[ad]	–	47%	45%	-	-	3%[ae]	4%
Gravis Marketing[70]	Oct 24, 2020	665 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	47%	-	-	–	5%
YouGov/CBS[71]	Oct 20–23, 2020	1,228 (LV)	± 3.6%	48%	50%	-	-	2%[af]	0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[72]	Oct 21–22, 2020	2,527 (LV)	± 2%	47%	49%	-	-	2%[ag]	2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[73]	Oct 20–22, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%[j]	50%	-	-	1%[ah]	1%
				46%[s]	52%	-	-	1%[ah]	1%
				48%[t]	46%	-	-	1%[ah]	1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[74]	Oct 20–21, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	-	-	3%[ai]	3%
Ipsos/Reuters[75]	Oct 14–21, 2020	662 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%[j]	51%	1%	0%	2%[z]	–
				46%[l]	50%	-	-	1%[aj]	3%
Citizen Data[76]	Oct 17–20, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	50%	1%	0%	1%	4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[77]	Oct 17–20, 2020	863 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	51%	-	-	1%[f]	1%
CNN/SSRS[78]	Oct 15–20, 2020	847 (LV)	± 4%	46%	50%	1%	1%	0%[ak]	1%
Morning Consult[49]	Oct 11–20, 2020	4,685 (LV)	± 1.4%	45%	52%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC[79]	Oct 16–19, 2020	547 (LV)[e]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida[80]	Oct 12–16, 2020	863 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	48%	-	-	1%[f]	3%
HarrisX/The Hill[81]	Oct 12–15, 2020	965 (LV)	–	48%	48%	-	-	–	4%
Ipsos/Reuters[82]	Oct 7–14, 2020	653 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%[j]	50%	0%	0%	2%[al]	–
				47%[l]	49%	-	-	1%[aj]	3%
Trafalgar Group[83]	Oct 11–13, 2020	1,051 (LV)	± 2.94%	48%	46%	2%	1%	1%[f]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84]	Oct 10–13, 2020	1,519 (LV)	–	44%[e]	50%	1%	0%	–	–
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[85]	Oct 11–12, 2020	2,215 (LV)	± 2.1%	47%	49%	-	-	1%[am]	2%
Emerson College[86]	Oct 10–12, 2020	690 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%[an]	51%	-	-	1%[f]	–
Mason-Dixon[87]	Oct 8–12, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4%	45%	48%	-	-	1%[ao]	6%
Clearview Research[88]	Oct 7–12, 2020	550 (LV)	± 4.18%	40%[j]	47%	-	-	4%[ap]	9%
				39%[aq]	48%	-	-	4%[ap]	9%
				41%[ar]	46%	-	-	4%[ap]	9%
Morning Consult[49]	Oct 2–11, 2020	4,785 (LV)	± 1.4%	46%	51%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84]	Oct 9–10, 2020	750 (LV)	–	42%[e]	53%	1%	0%	–	–
Florida Atlantic University[89]	Oct 9–10, 2020	644 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	51%	-	-	2%[ab]	–
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[90]	Oct 4–8, 2020	800 (LV)	–	46%[j]	48%	1%	1%	1%	4%
				44%[s]	50%	1%	1%	1%	4%
				47%[t]	46%	1%	1%	1%	4%
Insider Advantage/Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R)[91]	Oct 6–7, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	46%	1%	-	–	10%
YouGov/CCES[92]	Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020	3,755 (LV)	–	47%	49%	-	-	–	–
Ipsos/Reuters[93]	Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020	678 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	49%	-	-	1%[aj]	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[94]	Oct 4–6, 2020	998 (LV)	± 3.1%	44%	49%	1%	0%	1%[as]	6%
Quinnipiac University[95]	Oct 1–5, 2020	1,256 (LV)	± 2.8%	40%	51%	-	-	1%[f]	7%
Change Research/CNBC[96]	Oct 2–4, 2020	560 (LV)	–	46%	50%	-	-	–	–
Suffolk University/USA Today[97]	Oct 1–4, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%[j]	45%	2%	0%[at]	2%[au]	6%
				46%[av]	45%	-	-	2%[aw]	7%
University of North Florida[98]	Oct 1–4, 2020	3,134 (LV)	± 1.8%	45%	51%	-	-	1%[f]	3%[r]
St. Leo University[99]	Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020	489 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[100]	Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020	710 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	47%	2%	1%	0%[q]	8%[r]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Sep 1–30, 2020	12,962 (LV)	–	47%	51%	-	-	–	2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[101]	Sep 23–29, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	44%[e]	49%	-	-	–	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[102][A]	Sep 23–26, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	46%	3%	-	–	8%[r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[103]	Sep 23–25, 2020	1,073 (LV)	± 2.99%	43%	48%	1%	1%	1%[as]	7%
St. Pete Polls[104]	Sep 21–22, 2020	2,906 (LV)	± 1.8%	47%	50%	-	-	2%[ag]	2%
Data For Progress[105][D]	Sep 15–22, 2020	620 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	46%	-	-	–	11%
Change Research/CNBC[106]	Sep 18–20, 2020	702 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
ABC/Washington Post[107]	Sep 15–20, 2020	613 (LV)	± 4.5%	51%	47%	-	-	1%[ax]	1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[108][E]	Sep 17–19, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	51%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS[109]	Sep 15–18, 2020	1,205 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	-	-	1%[ay]	5%
Ipsos/Reuters[110]	Sep 11–17, 2020	586 (LV)	± 4.6%	47%	47%	-	-	2%[m]	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111]	Sep 12–14, 2020	1,158 (LV)	± 2.88%	44%	47%	1%	1%	1%[as]	6%
Monmouth University[112]	Sep 10–13, 2020	428 (RV)	± 4.7%	45%	50%	2%	0%	1%[az]	3%
		428 (LV)		45%[ba]	50%	-	-	1%[bb]	3%
				46%[bc]	49%	-	-	1%[bb]	3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[113]	Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020	1,009 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	43%	-	-	4%[bd]	11%
Florida Atlantic University[114]	Sep 11–12, 2020	631 (LV)	± 3.8%	50%	50%	-	-	0%[be]	–
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP[115]	Sep 7–8, 2020	2,689 (LV)	± 1.9%	47%	50%	-	-	2%[ag]	2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[116]	Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020	1,600 (LV)	± 2.5%	46%	48%	-	-	2%[bf]	4%
Morning Consult[117]	Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020	3,914 (LV)	± (2%-4%)	43%[bg]	50%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC[118]	Sep 4–6, 2020	1,144 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	4%[bh]	–
Marist College/NBC[119]	Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020	760 (LV)	± 4.5%	48%	48%	-	-	1%	2%
Trafalgar Group[120]	Sep 1–3, 2020	1,022 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	2%	-	1%[bi]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121]	Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020	1,093 (LV)	± 2.96%	43%	48%	1%	1%	1%[as]	6%
GQR Research (D)[122]	Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	51%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac[123]	Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020	1,235 (LV)	± 2.8%	45%	48%	-	-	1%[f]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Aug 1–31, 2020	12,286 (LV)	–	50%	48%	-	-	–	2%
Morning Consult[124]	Aug 21–30, 2020	3,790 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	47%	49%	-	-	–	–
Opinium/The Guardian[125]	Aug 21–26, 2020	684 (LV)	–	43%	50%	-	-	1%	6%
Change Research/CNBC[126]	Aug 21–23, 2020	1,262 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
PPP[127]	Aug 21–22, 2020	671 (V)	± 3.8%	44%	48%	-	-	–	7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[128]	Aug 16, 2020	1,280 (LV)	–	41%	49%	1%	-	1%[as]	7%
Morning Consult[124]	Aug 7–16, 2020	3,484 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[129][F]	Aug 11–15, 2020	750 (LV)	± 4%	44%	46%	2%	-	1%[bj]	6%
Change Research/CNBC[130]	Aug 7–9, 2020	469 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[131][G]	Aug 2–4, 2020	400 (LV)	–	49%	49%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Jul 1–31, 2020	13,945 (LV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC[132]	Jul 24–26, 2020	685 (LV)	–	45%	48%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult[133]	Jul 17–26, 2020	3,760 (LV)	± 1.6%	46%[bg]	49%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult[133]	Jul 16–25, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
CNN/SSRS[134]	Jul 18–24, 2020	880 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	51%	-	-	2%[bk]	2%
Zogby Analytics[135]	Jul 21–23, 2020	811 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	43%	3%	2%	–	9%
Mason-Dixon[136]	Jul 20–23, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	50%	-	-	–	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137]	Jul 19–21, 2020	1,121 (LV)	–	41%	48%	1%	1%	1%[as]	8%
Quinnipiac University[138]	Jul 16–20, 2020	924 (RV)	± 4.3%	38%	51%	-	-	6%[bl]	5%
Morning Consult[133]	Jul 6–15, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls[139]	Jul 13–14, 2020	3,018 (RV)	± 1.8%	44%	50%	-	-	2%[bm]	3%
Gravis Marketing[140]	Jul 13, 2020	513 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	53%	-	-	–	4%
Change Research/CNBC[141]	Jul 10–12, 2020	1,128 (LV)	–	43%	50%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS[142]	Jul 7–10, 2020	1,206 (LV)	± 3.6%	42%	48%	-	-	2%[bn]	8%
Morning Consult[133]	Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group[143]	Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020	1,072 (LV)	± 2.91%	46%	46%	-	-	5%[bo]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38]	Jun 8–30, 2020	5,663 (LV)	–	51%	47%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC[144]	Jun 26–28, 2020	951 (LV)[e]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult[133]	Jun 16–25, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
Fox News[145]	Jun 20–23, 2020	1,010 (RV)	± 3%	40%	49%	-	-	6%[bp]	6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[146]	Jun 8–18, 2020	651 (RV)	± 4.6%	41%	47%	-	-	4%[bq]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147]	Jun 14–15, 2020	1,079 (LV)	± 2.98%	41%	45%	1%	1%	1%[as]	11%
Morning Consult[133]	Jun 6–15, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC[148]	Jun 12–14, 2020	713 (LV)[e]	–	43%	50%	-	-	3%[br]	–
Gravis Marketing/OANN[149]	Released Jun 11, 2020	– (V)[ad]	–	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[150][A]	Jun 9–11, 2020	875 (LV)	–	40%	51%	-	-	4%[bs]	5%
Morning Consult[133]	May 27 – Jun 5, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	48%	47%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC[151]	May 29–31, 2020	1,186 (LV)[e]	–	45%	48%	-	-	2%	4%
Cygnal (R)[152]	May 18–30, 2020	881 (LV)	± 3.3%	43.8%	47%	-	-	3.3%[bt]	5.9%
St. Pete Polls[153]	May 26–27, 2020	4,763 (RV)	± 1.4%	46.7%	47.5%	-	-	2.7%[bu]	3.1%
Morning Consult[133]	May 17–26, 2020	3,593 (LV)	–	48%[bg]	47%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult[133]	May 16–25, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	48%	47%	-	-	–	–
Point Blank Political[154]	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	45%	1%[bv]	<1%[bw]	2%	8%
Point Blank Political[154]	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	52%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult[133]	May 6–15, 2020	– (LV)[ad]	–	50%	45%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155]	May 10–14, 2020	1,014 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	-	-	3%[bx]	10%
Florida Atlantic University[156]	May 8–12, 2020	928 (RV)	± 3.1%	47%	53%	-	-	–	–
Fox News[157]	Apr 18–21, 2020	1,004 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
Quinnipiac University[158]	Apr 16–20, 2020	1,385 (RV)	± 2.6%	42%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
St. Pete Polls[159]	Apr 16–17, 2020	5,659 (RV)	± 1.3%	48%	48%	-	-	–	4%
University of North Florida[160]	Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020	3,244 (RV)	± 1.7%	40%	46%	-	-	–	8%
AtlasIntel[161]	Mar 14–16, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	-	-	10%	–
Univision[162]	Mar 6–12, 2020	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	45%	-	-	–	7%
Florida Atlantic University[163]	Mar 5–7, 2020	1,216 (RV)	± 2.7%	51%	49%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida[98]	Feb, 2020	696 (LV)	–	45%	45%	-	-	–	10%[r]
Saint Leo University[164]	Feb 17–22, 2020	900 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	51%	-	-	–	8%
University of North Florida[165]	Feb 10–18, 2020	668 (RV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	3%
Florida Atlantic University[166]	Jan 9–12, 2020	1,285 (RV)	± 2.6%	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[167][H]	Jan 3–12, 2020	608 (LV)	± 4%	49%	45%	-	-	–	–
Mason-Dixon[168]	Dec 11–16, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	-	-	–	8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[169]	Oct 13–26, 2019	650 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	46%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida[170]	Oct 14–20, 2019	643 (RV)	± 3.8%	43%	48%	-	-	6%[by]	3%
Florida Atlantic University[171]	Sep 12–15, 2019	934 (RV)	± 3.1%	50.5%	49.5%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac University[172]	Jun 12–17, 2019	1,279 (RV)	± 3.3%	41%	50%	-	-	1%	6%
St. Pete Polls[173]	Jun 15–16, 2019	3,095 (LV)	± 1.8%	47%	47%	-	-	–	6%
Florida Atlantic University[174]	May 16–19, 2019	1,007 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
WPA Intelligence[175]	Apr 27–30, 2019	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	48%	44%	-	-	–	7%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University[164] Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12% University of North Florida[165] Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6% Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[167][H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University[164] Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15% University of North Florida[165] Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7% Florida Atlantic University[166] Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[167][H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon[168] Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6% University of North Florida[170] Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[bz] 9% Quinnipiac University[172] Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9% Florida Atlantic University[174] May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida[170] Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[ca] 7% Florida Atlantic University[171] Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – – Quinnipiac University[172] Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Florida Atlantic University[174] May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University[164] Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16% University of North Florida[165] Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University[172] Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided AtlasIntel[161] Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% – Univision[162] Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8% Florida Atlantic University[163] Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – – Saint Leo University[164] Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11% University of North Florida[165] Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4% Florida Atlantic University[166] Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – – Mason-Dixon[168] Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7% Siena College/NYT Upshot[169] Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – – Florida Atlantic University[171] Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – – Quinnipiac University[172] Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University[174] May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University[164] Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14% University of North Florida[165] Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6% Florida Atlantic University[166] Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[167][H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon[168] Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7% Siena College/NYT Upshot[169] Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – University of North Florida[170] Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[by] 6% Florida Atlantic University[171] Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – – Quinnipiac University[172] Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University[174] May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Zogby Analytics[176] Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Oprah Winfrey (D) Other Undecided Dixie Strategies[177] Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13% with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling (D)[178][I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6% Mason-Dixon[179] Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9% with Donald Trump and generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided Quinnipiac University[180] Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[cb] 18%[cc] with Mike Pence and Joe Biden Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Joe Biden (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida[170] Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[ca] 5% with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided St. Leo University[99] Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5% with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida[170] Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[ca] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida^[181]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	5,668,731	51.22%	+2.20%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	5,297,045	47.86%	+0.04%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	70,324	0.64%	−1.56%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	14,721	0.13%	−0.55%
	Reform	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	5,966	0.05%	−0.05%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	5,712	0.05%	N/A
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	3,902	0.04%	−0.13%
	Write-in		1,055	0.01%	−0.26%
Total votes			11,067,456	100.00%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Alachua	50,972	35.63%	89,704	62.71%	2,371	1.66%	-38,732	-27.08%	143,047
Baker	11,911	84.58%	2,037	14.47%	134	0.95%	9,874	70.11%	14,082
Bay	66,097	70.91%	25,614	27.48%	1,502	1.61%	40,483	43.43%	93,213
Bradford	10,334	75.71%	3,160	23.15%	156	1.14%	7,174	52.56%	13,650
Brevard	207,883	57.48%	148,549	41.08%	5,221	1.44%	59,334	16.40%	361,653
Broward	333,409	34.74%	618,752	64.48%	7,479	0.78%	-285,343	-29.74%	959,640
Calhoun	5,274	80.68%	1,209	18.49%	54	0.83%	4,065	62.19%	6,537
Charlotte	73,243	62.84%	42,273	36.27%	1,042	0.89%	30,970	26.57%	116,558
Citrus	65,352	69.98%	27,092	29.01%	944	1.01%	38,260	40.97%	93,388
Clay	84,480	67.77%	38,317	30.74%	1,863	1.49%	46,163	37.03%	124,660
Collier	128,950	61.91%	77,621	37.27%	1,714	0.82%	51,329	24.64%	208,285
Columbia	23,836	72.03%	8,914	26.94%	342	1.03%	14,822	45.09%	33,092
DeSoto	8,313	65.58%	4,259	33.60%	104	0.82%	4,054	31.98%	12,676
Dixie	6,759	82.70%	1,365	16.70%	49	0.60%	5,394	66.00%	8,173
Duval	233,762	47.30%	252,556	51.11%	7,843	1.59%	-18,794	-3.81%	494,161
Escambia	96,674	56.58%	70,929	41.51%	3,253	1.91%	25,745	15.07%	170,856
Flagler	43,043	59.90%	28,161	39.19%	659	0.91%	14,882	20.71%	71,863
Franklin	4,675	68.16%	2,120	30.91%	64	0.93%	2,555	37.25%	6,859
Gadsden	7,465	31.42%	16,153	67.98%	144	0.60%	-8,688	-36.56%	23,762
Gilchrist	7,895	81.37%	1,700	17.52%	107	1.11%	6,195	63.85%	9,702
Glades	3,782	72.69%	1,385	26.62%	36	0.69%	2,397	46.07%	5,203
Gulf	6,113	74.80%	1,985	24.29%	74	0.91%	4,128	50.51%	8,172
Hamilton	3,815	65.33%	1,963	33.61%	62	1.06%	1,852	31.72%	5,840
Hardee	6,122	72.01%	2,298	27.03%	82	0.96%	3,824	44.98%	8,502
Hendry	7,906	61.02%	4,929	38.04%	121	0.94%	2,977	22.98%	12,956
Hernando	70,412	64.51%	37,519	34.37%	1,219	1.12%	32,893	30.14%	109,150
Highlands	34,873	66.75%	16,938	32.42%	432	0.83%	17,935	34.33%	52,243
Hillsborough	327,398	45.85%	376,367	52.71%	10,303	1.44%	-48,969	-6.86%	714,068
Holmes	8,080	89.01%	924	10.18%	74	0.81%	7,156	78.83%	9,078
Indian River	58,872	60.23%	37,844	38.72%	1,024	1.05%	21,028	21.51%	97,740
Jackson	15,488	68.97%	6,766	30.13%	202	0.90%	8,722	38.84%	22,456
Jefferson	4,479	52.89%	3,897	46.02%	92	1.09%	382	6.87%	8,468
Lafayette	3,128	85.42%	510	13.93%	24	0.65%	2,618	71.49%	3,662
Lake	125,859	59.56%	83,505	39.52%	1,950	0.92%	42,354	20.04%	211,314
Lee	233,247	59.09%	157,695	39.95%	3,816	0.96%	75,552	19.14%	394,758
Leon	57,453	35.14%	103,517	63.32%	2,506	1.54%	-46,064	-28.18%	163,476
Levy	16,749	72.24%	6,205	26.76%	231	1.00%	10,544	45.48%	23,185
Liberty	2,846	79.83%	694	19.47%	25	0.70%	2,152	60.36%	3,565
Madison	5,576	59.36%	3,747	39.89%	70	0.75%	1,829	19.47%	9,393
Manatee	124,987	57.47%	90,166	41.46%	2,319	1.07%	34,821	16.01%	217,472
Marion	127,826	62.44%	74,858	36.57%	2,032	0.99%	52,968	25.87%	204,716
Martin	61,168	61.82%	36,893	37.29%	881	0.89%	24,275	24.53%	98,942
Miami-Dade	532,833	45.98%	617,864	53.31%	8,221	0.71%	-85,931	-7.33%	1,158,918
Monroe	25,693	53.38%	21,881	45.46%	561	1.16%	3,812	7.92%	48,135
Nassau	42,566	72.25%	15,564	26.42%	785	1.33%	27,002	45.83%	58,915
Okaloosa	79,798	68.35%	34,248	29.34%	2,697	2.31%	45,550	39.01%	116,743
Okeechobee	11,470	71.76%	4,390	27.46%	124	0.78%	7,080	44.30%	15,984
Orange	245,398	37.80%	395,014	60.85%	8,745	1.35%	-149,616	-23.05%	649,157
Osceola	73,480	42.53%	97,297	56.31%	2,007	1.16%	-23,817	-13.78%	172,784
Palm Beach	334,711	43.21%	433,572	55.97%	6,314	0.82%	-98,861	-12.76%	774,597
Pasco	179,621	59.36%	119,073	39.35%	3,927	1.29%	60,548	20.01%	302,621
Pinellas	276,209	49.22%	277,450	49.44%	7,502	1.34%	-1,241	-0.22%	561,161
Polk	194,586	56.56%	145,049	42.16%	4,391	1.28%	49,537	14.40%	344,026
Putnam	25,514	70.05%	10,527	28.90%	381	1.05%	14,987	41.15%	36,422
St. Johns	110,946	62.66%	63,850	36.06%	2,251	1.28%	47,096	26.60%	177,047
St. Lucie	86,831	50.38%	84,137	48.82%	1,381	0.80%	2,694	1.56%	172,349
Santa Rosa	77,385	72.19%	27,612	25.76%	2,201	2.05%	49,773	46.43%	107,198
Sarasota	148,370	54.71%	120,110	44.29%	2,689	1.00%	28,260	10.42%	271,169
Seminole	125,241	47.89%	132,528	50.67%	3,764	1.44%	-7,287	-2.78%	261,533
Sumter	62,761	67.76%	29,341	31.68%	522	0.56%	33,420	36.08%	92,624
Suwannee	16,410	77.84%	4,485	21.27%	188	0.89%	11,925	56.57%	21,083
Taylor	7,751	76.45%	2,299	22.68%	88	0.87%	5,452	53.77%	10,138
Union	5,133	82.11%	1,053	16.85%	65	1.04%	4,080	65.26%	6,251
Volusia	173,821	56.42%	130,575	42.38%	3,713	1.20%	43,246	14.04%	308,109
Wakulla	12,874	69.79%	5,351	29.01%	223	1.20%	7,523	40.78%	18,448
Walton	32,947	75.23%	10,338	23.61%	510	1.16%	22,609	51.62%	43,795
Washington	9,876	80.06%	2,347	19.03%	112	0.91%	7,529	61.03%	12,335
Totals	5,668,731	51.11%	5,297,045	47.75%	126,445	1.14%	371,686	3.36%	11,092,221

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10–12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10–12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10–12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10–12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)^[182]
• Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)^[182]
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)^[182]

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.^[183]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	65.9%	32.4%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	67%	32%	Neal Dunn
3rd	56%	42.8%	Ted Yoho
			Kat Cammack
4th	59.9%	38.9%	John Rutherford
5th	36.2%	62.7%	Al Lawson
6th	58.3%	40.8%	Michael Waltz
7th	44.2%	54.6%	Stephanie Murphy
8th	58.3%	40.6%	Bill Posey
9th	46%	52.9%	Darren Soto
10th	37%	62%	Val Demings
11th	65.4%	33.8%	Daniel Webster
12th	57.9%	41%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	47.4%	51.5%	Charlie Crist
14th	41.6%	57.2%	Kathy Castor
15th	53.7%	45.2%	Ross Spano
			Scott Franklin
16th	53.6%	45.5%	Vern Buchanan
17th	63.3%	35.9%	Greg Steube
18th	53.9%	45.5%	Brian Mast
19th	59.7%	39.6%	Francis Rooney
			Byron Donalds
20th	22.1%	77.3%	Alcee Hastings
21st	41.2%	58.2%	Lois Frankel
22nd	42.3%	57.2%	Ted Deutch
23rd	41.2%	58.3%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th	24%	75.4%	Frederica Wilson
25th	61.2%	38.2%	Mario Díaz-Balart
26th	52.5%	46.9%	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
			Carlos Giménez
27th	48.1%	51.3%	Donna Shalala
			Maria Elvira Salazar

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.^[184]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.^[185][186] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.^[187]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016.^[cd] Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes.^[188] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.^[189]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. Mexican, Haitian, and African American precincts tended to vote for Biden, while Cuban and Colombian American precincts did so for Trump.^[190] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.^[191] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.^[192] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.^[193] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.^[194]

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since 2004.^[191]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Florida by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[195][196]
Demographic subgroup	Biden	Trump	% of total vote
Total vote	47.86	51.22	100
Ideology
Liberals	83	16	19
Moderates	59	40	42
Conservatives	16	83	39
Party
Democrats	94	5	30
Republicans	7	93	38
Independents	54	43	32
Gender
Men	45	54	45
Women	51	48	55
Race/ethnicity
White	37	62	62
Black	89	10	14
Latino	53	46	19
Asian	–	–	1
Other	55	44	3
Age
18–24 years old	57	42	7
25–29 years old	64	35	6
30–39 years old	48	50	13
40–49 years old	48	51	13
50–64 years old	45	54	28
65 and older	45	55	32
Sexual orientation
LGBT	83	15	6
Not LGBT	46	53	94
Education
High school or less	44	56	19
Some college education	50	49	25
Associate degree	45	53	20
Bachelor's degree	49	50	22
Postgraduate degree	53	45	14
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality	86	12	13
Coronavirus	88	10	18
Economy	13	87	38
Crime and safety	12	88	10
Health care	83	16	13
Region
North/Panhandle	41	58	18
Orlando/Central Atlantic	51	48	19
Tampa Bay area	48	51	16
Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida	39	60	20
Miami/Gold Coast	58	41	27
Area type
Urban	55	44	41
Suburban	44	55	50
Rural	38	61	9
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago	18	81	44
Worse than four years ago	84	15	19
About the same	67	32	36

See also

• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
2. Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
6. "Someone else" with 1%
7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
8. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
9. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
10. Standard VI response
11. West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
12. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
13. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
14. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
15. "Some other candidate" with 2%
16. "Someone else" with 3%
17. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
18. Includes "Refused"
19. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
20. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
21. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
22. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
23. "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
24. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
25. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
26. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
27. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
28. "Someone else" with 2%
29. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
30. Not yet released
31. "Refused" with 3%
32. "Other third party" with 2%
33. "Third party" with 2%
34. "Some other candidate" with 1%
35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
36. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
37. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
38. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
39. "Third party" with 1%
40. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
41. "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
42. "Someone else" with 4%
43. Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
44. Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
45. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
46. No voters
47. "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
48. With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
49. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
50. "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
51. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
52. "No one" with 1%
53. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
54. "Other" with 1%
55. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
56. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
57. "Someone else" with 0%
58. Would not vote with 2%
59. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
60. "Other/not sure" with 4%
61. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
62. "Refused" with 1%
63. "Other" and "Neither" 1%
64. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
65. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
67. "Other party candidate" with 5%
68. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
69. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
70. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
71. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
72. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
73. "Third party" with 2.7%
74. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
75. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
76. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
77. Would not vote with 6%
78. Would not vote with 7%
79. Would not vote with 8%
80. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
81. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
82. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.

Partisan clients

1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
2. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
4. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
5. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
6. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
7. Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
8. Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
9. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters