2022 Florida gubernatorial election

2022 Florida gubernatorial election
Turnout	53.6% 9.0 pp
	DeSantis/Nuñez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Crist/Hernández: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes
Governor before election; Ron DeSantis; Republican	Elected Governor ; Ron DeSantis; Republican

The 2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide,^[1] and defeated the Democratic Party nominee, Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since 1994.^[2]^[3]^[4]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

With 59.4 percent of the vote, DeSantis won the largest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial election since 1982.^[5] Significantly, DeSantis won Miami-Dade County, which had been considered a Democratic stronghold and had last voted Republican in 2002, and Palm Beach County, which had not voted Republican since 1986.^[6]^[7] Crist conceded the election shortly after DeSantis was projected as the winner.^[8]

According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans.^[9] DeSantis's large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006. This was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His 19.4% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history, compared to 0.4% four years earlier. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over a million votes.^[10]^[11]

Significantly, Crist's 40.0% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916, a three candidate race. Republicans won all other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Florida Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters.^[9]^[12] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.^[13]

Some analysts believe that this election marked the transition of Florida from being a swing state into a red state.^[14]^[15] Donald Trump would win Florida in 2024 by 13 percentage points, far exceeding his two prior performances in the state.^[16]^[17]

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Charlie Crist	Nikki Fried	Annette Taddeo	Other	Undecided
St. Pete Polls^[127]	August 20–21, 2022	1,617 (LV)	± 2.4%	59%	30%	–	–	11%
Change Research (D)^[128]^[A]	August 12–14, 2022	702 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	37%	–	–	16%
University of North Florida^[129]	August 8–12, 2022	529 (LV)	± 6.0%	43%	47%	–	5%^[c]	6%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[130]^[B]	August 8–9, 2022	664 (LV)	± 3.8%	42%	35%	–	–	23%
St. Pete Polls^[131]	August 2–3, 2022	1,361 (LV)	± 2.7%	56%	24%	–	–	20%
GBAO (D)^[132]^[A]	July 27–31, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	36%	–	–	12%
Kaplan Strategies^[133]	July 6, 2022	671 (LV)	± 3.8%	39%	39%	–	–	22%
GBAO (D)^[134]^[A]	June 23–26, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	55%	34%	–	–	11%
St. Pete Polls^[135]	June 16–17, 2022	1,007 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	24%	–	–	27%
Global Strategy Group (D)^[136]^[B]	June 8–13, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	38%	34%	–	–	29%
	June 6, 2022	Taddeo withdraws from the race
St. Pete Polls^[137]	May 2–3, 2022	1,859 (LV)	± 2.3%	52%	19%	5%	–	24%
Sachs Media Group^[138]	April 8–10, 2022	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	35%	20%	4%	–	41%
University of North Florida^[139]	February 7–20, 2022	271 (RV)	± 6.0%	27%	19%	4%	8%^[d]	44%
Mason-Dixon^[140]	February 7–10, 2022	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	44%	27%	3%	–	26%
Alvarado Strategies (R)^[141]^[C]	February 2022	1,007 (LV)	± 3.1%	36%	25%	6%	10%	23%
GBAO (D)^[142]^[A]	January 26–31, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	54%	28%	7%	–	11%
GBAO (D)^[142]^[A]	January 26–31, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	33%	–	–	11%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[143]^[B]	January 26–27, 2022	582 (LV)	± 4.1%	36%	34%	–	–	29%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[144]^[B]	August 10–11, 2021	274 (LV)	± 5.9%	33%	36%	–	–	31%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)^[145]	August 4–10, 2021	245 (RV)	± 6.3%	38%	27%	–	5%	30%
Political Matrix (R)^[146]	June 9–11, 2021	660 (LV)	± 4.5%	41%	31%	–	–	29%
St. Pete Polls^[147]	May 24–26, 2021	2,752 (RV)	± 1.9%	55%	22%	–	11%	12%
Victory Insights (R)^[148]	May 4, 2021	232 (RV)	± 7.0%	53%	30%	–	17%^[e]	–
SEA Polling (D)^[149]^[D]	April 15–20, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	28%	26%	13%	–	34%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Charlie Crist	904,524	59.71%
	Democratic	Nicole "Nikki" Fried	535,480	35.35%
	Democratic	Cadance Daniel	38,198	2.52%
	Democratic	Robert L. Willis	36,786	2.43%
Total votes			1,513,180	100.0%

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn					Ron DeSantis	Charlie Crist
1	October 24, 2022	WPEC-TV	Liz Quirantes	YouTube^[168]	P	P

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[169]	Likely R	July 22, 2022
Inside Elections^[170]	Likely R	July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[171]	Safe R	October 31, 2022
Politico^[172]	Likely R	April 1, 2022
RCP^[173]	Lean R	January 10, 2022
Fox News^[174]	Likely R	May 12, 2022
538^[175]	Solid R	October 18, 2022
Elections Daily^[176]	Safe R	November 7, 2022

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Ron DeSantis (R)	Charlie Crist (D)	Other ^[f]	Margin
Real Clear Politics^[197]	October 17 – November 6, 2022	November 8, 2022	54.4%	42.2%	3.4%	DeSantis +12.2
FiveThirtyEight^[198]	October 30, 2022 – November 7, 2022	November 8, 2022	54.5%	42.4%	3.0%	DeSantis +12.1
270 to win^[199]	November 4–7, 2022	November 8, 2022	54.0%	41.8%	4.2%	DeSantis +12.2
Average			54.3%	42.1%	3.6%	DeSantis +12.2

2022 Florida gubernatorial election^[266]^[267]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Ron DeSantis (incumbent) Jeanette Nuñez (incumbent)	4,614,210	59.37%	+9.78%
	Democratic	Charlie Crist Karla Hernandez	3,106,313	39.97%	−9.22%
	Independent	Carmen Jackie Gimenez Kyle "KC" Gibson	31,577	0.41%	N/A
	Libertarian	Hector Roos Jerry "Tub" Rorabaugh	19,299	0.25%	N/A
Total votes			7,771,399	100.0%	N/A
Turnout			7,796,916	53.76%
Registered electors			14,503,978
	Republican hold

District	DeSantis	Crist	Representative
1st	73%	26%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	62%	38%	Neal Dunn
3rd	64%	35%	Kat Cammack
4th	60%	39%	Aaron Bean
5th	65%	34%	John Rutherford
6th	68%	31%	Mike Waltz
7th	60%	39%	Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
7th	60%	39%	Cory Mills (118th Congress)
8th	65%	35%	Bill Posey
9th	50%	49%	Darren Soto
10th	41%	58%	Val Demings (117th Congress)
10th	41%	58%	Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
11th	63%	37%	Daniel Webster
12th	69%	30%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	58%	41%	Anna Paulina Luna
14th	47%	52%	Kathy Castor
15th	59%	40%	Laurel Lee
16th	61%	38%	Vern Buchanan
17th	64%	35%	Greg Steube
18th	69%	30%	Scott Franklin
19th	69%	30%	Byron Donalds
20th	30%	69%	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st	62%	37%	Brian Mast
22nd	48%	51%	Lois Frankel
23rd	50%	49%	Jared Moskowitz
24th	31%	68%	Frederica Wilson
25th	47%	52%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th	70%	29%	Mario Díaz-Balart
27th	58%	41%	María Elvira Salazar
28th	64%	36%	Carlos A. Giménez

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup	Crist	DeSantis	% of voters
Gender
Men	35	64	49
Women	46	53	51
Age
18–24 years old	54	44	7
25–29 years old	56	41	4
30–39 years old	52	47	13
40–49 years old	38	60	12
50–64 years old	36	63	32
65 and older	36	64	32
Race
White	34	65	64
Black	86	13	11
Latino	40	58	21
Race by gender
White men	27	72	32
White women	40	58	32
Black men	81	19	5
Black women	91	9	6
Latino men	41	57	10
Latina women	39	60	11
Education
High school or less	33	67	15
Some college education	41	58	25
Associate degree	40	59	19
Bachelor's degree	43	56	24
Advanced degree	44	55	17
Party ID
Democrats	95	5	28
Republicans	2	97	42
Independents	45	53	30
Ideology
Liberals	90	10	20
Moderates	53	45	39
Conservatives	6	94	42
Marital status
Married	38	62	59
Unmarried	50	50	41
Gender by marital status
Married men	32	68	30

Background

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Running mate selection

Selected

On shortlist

Independent and third-party candidates

Green Party

Withdrawn

Independent Party

Withdrawn

Libertarian Party

Declared

Declined

Independent candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Write-ins

Declared

General election

Debates and forums

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Results

By county

By congressional district

Analysis

Voter demographics

See also

Notes

References

External links