2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

Mainly owing to the progressive and culturally Northeastern Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas (where the vast majority of Marylanders live) and despite areas like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore being rural, conservative, and still culturally Southern, Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double digits since 1992. Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points in 2020, with 52% of the White vote, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to have a majority showing with said electoral demographic.^[2] Maryland is expected to be a safe blue state in 2024.^[3]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.^[4][5] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[6] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.^[7]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Democratic presidential primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[8] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024^[9]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	591,523	87.1%	95		95
Uncommitted	66,168	9.8%
Marianne Williamson	12,935	1.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	8,188	1.2%
Total:	678,814	100.0%	95	23	118

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[8] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Republican Primary, May 14, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	205,996	77.7%	37	0	37
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	56,506	21.3%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,607	1.0%	0	0	0
Total:	265,109	100.0%	37	0	37

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[10]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[11]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis[14]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN[15]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist[16]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538[17]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP[18]	Solid D	June 26, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Morning Consult	September 9–18, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	61%	33%	6%
Public Policy Polling (D)	September 16–17, 2024	543 (RV)	± 4.2%	64%	33%	3%
Emerson College	September 12–13, 2024	890 (LV)	± 3.2%	65%	33%	2%
				63%	32%	5%
Morning Consult	August 30–September 8, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	62%	34%	4%
Gonzales Research	August 24–30, 2024	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	64%	32%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Jill Stein Green	Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	59%	29%	5%	1%	1%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[19]	June 19–20, 2024	635 (V)	± 3.9%	56%	30%	15%
Emerson College[20]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	56%	35%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[21][upper-alpha 2]	May 6–7, 2024	719 (V)	± 3.7%	60%	32%	8%
Emerson College[22]	February 12–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	55%	32%	13%
Gonzales Research[23]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	32%	15%
Gonzales Research[24]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	30%	13%
Gonzales Research[25]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	52%	35%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[20]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	50%	33%	6%	4%	1%	6%
Emerson College[22]	February 12−13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[23]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	45%	28%	18%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[23]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	36%	14%
Gonzales Research[24]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	36%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[24]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	9%
Gonzales Research[25]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	51%	37%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[24]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	29%	15%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maryland
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. This poll was commissioned by the AARP.
2. This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
3. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
4. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
5. Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
6. "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
7. Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
8. "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
9. "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
10. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
15. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
16. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
17. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
18. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
19. "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
20. Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
21. "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
22. Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
23. "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
24. "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
25. Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".

External links

Media related to United States presidential election in Maryland, 2024 at Wikimedia Commons