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2018 New York gubernatorial election

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2018 New York gubernatorial election
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The 2018 New York gubernatorial election occurred on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican Marc Molinaro and several minor party candidates. Cuomo received 59.6% of the vote to Molinaro's 36.2%.

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Cuomo defeated actress and activist Cynthia Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Cuomo's running mate, Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul, beat New York City councillor Jumaane Williams in the Democratic primary for the lieutenant governorship. Democratic candidates Cuomo and Hochul also ran on the ballot lines of the Independence Party, and the Women's Equality Party; after Nixon and Williams withdrew from the race in October, Cuomo and Hochul received the nomination of the Working Families Party as well.

Dutchess County Executive and former New York State Assemblymember Marc Molinaro was the Republican, Conservative, and Reform Party candidate. Molinaro's running mate was former Rye City Councilmember Julie Killian. 3rd-party gubernatorial candidates appearing on the general election ballot included Howie Hawkins, repeat candidate for the Green Party; former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, running on the newly created Serve America Movement line; and Larry Sharpe of the Libertarian Party, who was the runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian primary contest for Vice President of the United States.

On election day, Cuomo ultimately won reelection with 59.6% of the vote, a margin of 23% over Molinaro. Cuomo flipped Monroe, Suffolk, and Ulster counties back into the Democratic column; all 3 supported him in 2010 but narrowly backed Republican Rob Astorino in 2014. Molinaro, however, flipped the North Country counties of Clinton, Franklin, and Essex, as well as Broome County in the Southern Tier, into the Republican column.

Cuomo won New York City itself by 81.51 percent to Molinaro's 15.2 (including a plurality in the somewhat conservative Staten Island borough).[1] He also maintained a ten-point edge over Molinaro in Long Island and Rockland County,[2] in addition to comfortably winning the suburban Westchester County by 36 points.[3] Upstate New York, however, voted for Molinaro, he received 50.7 percent of the vote there to Cuomo's 43.

As of 2022, this, along with the concurrent attorney general election, Senate election and Comptroller election, is the last time Richmond (Staten Island) or Suffolk counties have voted Democratic. This is the last time Nassau County and Rockland County voted Democratic in a gubernatorial election. This is the last time the counties of Schenectady and Columbia voted Republican in a statewide election. This is also the last time Cuomo would win reelection to the governorship, as he resigned in 2021 and was succeeded by Hochul.

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Background

Incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo decided to seek re-election in 2014 to a second term in office. Governor Cuomo defeated Zephyr Teachout in a primary election, 63 to 33%, and went on to defeat the Republican nominee, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, 54 to 40%, in the general election. His victory — and his vote tallies in rural upstate New York counties — declined in his bid for reelection, but Cuomo was still reelected.

New York gubernatorial elections operate on a split primary system: governor and lieutenant governor candidates in each party run in separate primary elections. In the general election, candidates are chosen as unified governor/lieutenant governor tickets. New York allows electoral fusion, in which candidates may appear on multiple ballot lines in the same election.[4][5]

The results of the gubernatorial election also determine ballot access and ballot order. A party's gubernatorial candidate must receive 50,000 votes or more for that party to obtain automatic ballot status in New York for the following four years.[6]

The last Republican to win a gubernatorial election in New York was George Pataki, in 2002.[7]

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Democratic primary

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On November 15, 2016, Gov. Cuomo announced his intention to seek a 3rd term in office.[8] On May 23, 2018, governor Andrew Cuomo secured the nomination of the Democratic Party at the state convention after winning support from more than 95% of the state delegates.[9] No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot at the convention, as they all failed to meet the 25% delegate threshold.[9] Actress and activist Cynthia Nixon sought to petition her way onto the Democratic primary ballot.[10] By July 12, Nixon had obtained 65,000 signatures, which is more than 4 times the 15,000 to force a primary election.[11]

Candidates

Nominee

Lost nomination
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Cynthia Nixon (defeated)
Local and state politicians (current and former)
Individuals
Organizations
Media

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Debates and forums

  • Hofstra University – August 29, 2018 – WCBS-TV[79]

Results

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County results for the Democratic gubernatorial primary
Cuomo:      50-60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%
Nixon:      50–60%

On September 13, 2018, Cuomo defeated Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.[80]

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Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Lost nomination
Results
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County results for the Democratic lieutenant governor primary
Hochul:      50-60%      60–70%      70–80%
Williams:      50–60%      60–70%

Kathy Hochul narrowly defeated New York City Councillor Jumaane Williams in the Democratic primary.[82]

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Republican primary

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On May 23, 2018, the party unanimously nominated Marc Molinaro as its candidate for governor of New York at its state convention.[83] No challengers attempted to petition onto the primary ballot, so no Republican primary took place. Deputy Senate Majority Leader John A. DeFrancisco ran for the Republican nomination,[84] but withdrew his candidacy on April 25, 2018, after party leaders—who had initially given him their support—threw their support to Molinaro instead.[85]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

John DeFrancisco (withdrew)
Federal politicians
State legislators
Municipal leaders
Municipal legislators
Organizations
Brian Kolb (withdrew)
State legislators
Municipal leaders
Organizations

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
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Third-party candidates and independent candidates

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Third parties with automatic ballot access

In addition to the Democratic and Republican Parties, six other political parties had automatic ballot access; all six chose to exercise it. In order of ballot appearance, those parties are:

Independent candidates and third parties without automatic ballot access

Any candidate not among the eight qualified New York political parties (Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Green, Working Families, Independence, Women's Equality and Reform, respectively) was required to submit petitions to gain ballot access. Such candidates did not face primary elections. At the time, third parties whose respective gubernatorial candidates received at least 50,000 votes in the general election secured automatic ballot access in all state and federal elections through the 2022 elections, but due to a 2020 law to change the requirements, four parties lost that access in 2020 (Libertarian, Independence, Working Families, Serve America Movement).[131]

Libertarian Party

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Business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary Larry Sharpe ran on the Libertarian Party line.

On July 12, 2017, Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary, officially announced that he would run for governor of New York in 2018. Sharpe was the first person to announce his candidacy to run against incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo.[132][133] On August 19, 2018, the Libertarian Party announced it had collected over 30,000 signatures to place its ticket onto the November ballot.[134] Sharpe's petitions survived a petition challenge.[135]

  • Nominee: Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary[136][137]
    • Running mate: Andrew Hollister, candidate for Rochester City Council in 2017[133]

Serve America Movement

On June 18, 2018, former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, after expressing informal interest in the Working Families and Reform nominations,[138] entered the gubernatorial race as a third-party candidate.[139] Miner "plans to run under the banner of an upstart new group, the Serve America Movement, which calls itself SAM, formed by people disaffected by the existing party structure after the 2016 elections. She will be the group's first candidate." Miner circulated designating petitions to create a SAM Party in New York, and on August 21, her campaign announced that it had submitted over 40,000 petition signatures.[23] Miner's submitted petitions far exceeded the 15,000 required to qualify for the November ballot.[140] Persons tied to the Cuomo campaign, after reviewing the petitions, failed to find enough specific objections to challenge their validity.[140]

Rent Is Too Damn High Party (disqualified)

Jimmy McMillan, the party's founder and figurehead, indicated on the party website that he would make another attempt at the office.[142] He submitted petitions on August 21, 2018, with himself as the gubernatorial nominee and Christialle Felix as his running mate.[143][144] When the ballot order was released, McMillan and the Rent Is Too Damn High Party had been disqualified and removed from the ballot.[145]

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General election

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Debates

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Endorsements

Marc Molinaro (R)
U.S. governors
U.S. representatives
State legislators
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Larry Sharpe (L)
U.S. governors
U.S. municipal legislators
Other politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Howie Hawkins (G)
Local politicians (former)
Individuals
  • Jimmy Dore, stand-up comedian and political commentator known for hosting The Jimmy Dore Show and co-hosting The Aggressive Progressives on Young Turks[235][236]
Stephanie Miner (SAM)
Newspapers
  • Adirondack Daily Enterprise[237]

Predictions

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Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Aggregate polls

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Hypothetical polling

with Cynthia Nixon as WFP nominee

with Cynthia Nixon as Democratic nominee

with John DeFrancisco

with Carl Paladino

with Rob Astorino

with Chris Gibson

with Donald Trump Jr.

with Harry Wilson

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 10, 2018, Source: New York State Board of Elections ...

Results

On November 6, 2018, the Cuomo-Hochul ticket defeated the Molinaro-Killian ticket by a margin of 59.6%–36.2%. Cuomo received 3,635,430 votes,[24] making him the top vote earner in any New York gubernatorial election in history.[261]

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cuomo won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans. Molinaro won seven, including three that elected Democrats.[262]

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Aftermath

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Cuomo was sworn in for a third term as governor on January 1, 2019.[263] He would resign from the governorship on August 10, 2021, following sexual harassment allegations and a nursing home scandal that plagued his third term.[264] Cuomo also faced poor polling numbers; he barely polled ahead of Republican Lee Zeldin and Rob Astorino in 2021.[265]

Molinaro's crushing election defeat and the Republican loss of the State Senate caused many members in the New York GOP to turn openly against then-Chairman Edward Cox, who they blamed for failing to financially or structurally support the party's election campaigns. On May 27, 2019, Cox announced that he would not run for another term as chair that year, choosing to join Donald Trump's reelection campaign instead. On July 2, the state party committee elected Nick Langworthy as the new party chairman.

Howie Hawkins lost ballot access for the Green Party under new requirements as of December 2021.[266]

Stephanie Miner also lost her ballot access for the Serve America Movement as of New York State election law of December 2021.[266]

The Libertarian Party of New York lost their ballot access with Larry Sharpe's 95,033 votes under new New York State election law requirements as of December, 2021.[266]

The Women's Equality Party and Reform Party of New York both lost automatic ballot access by failing to meet the requirements of the New York State election law of December 2021.[266]

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References

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