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2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

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2024 United States Senate election in Michigan
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See also: 2024 United States Senate elections

The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin won her first term in office, narrowly defeating Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers. She succeeded Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who did not seek a fifth term.[1][2]

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Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[3] Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash. This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, this was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was re-elected as Republican George H.W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Slotkin had won the election.[4][5][6] Slotkin received about 25,000 fewer votes than Kamala Harris, while Rogers received about 120,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump.

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Background

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. At the time of the election, Democrats controlled both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.[7]

This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win.[8][9] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race[10] and defaulting on a bank loan.[11][12] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.[13]

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Democratic primary

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Campaign

Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024.[14][15][16] Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023.[17] She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign.[18][19]

Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.[20]

Campaign contribution allegations

In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib.[21][22][23] The allegation was denied by Nelson.[21][24] Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."[25] Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot.[26]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Hill Harper

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Elissa Slotkin

Statewide elected officials

U.S. representatives

[66][67][68]

State cabinet officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Nasser Beydoun (disqualified)

Organizations

Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)

Local officials

Declined to endorse

Presidents

U.S. senators

Labor unions

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

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Results by county:
  Slotkin
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May.[120]

Residency controversy

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022.[121] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan.[122] His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him.[123][124][125] New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home.[126]

Endorsements

Justin Amash

U.S. senators

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Sherry O'Donnell

Executive office officials

State legislators

Individuals

Mike Rogers

Executive branch officials

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[141]

Organizations

Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)

Individuals

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Rogers
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Third-party candidates

Declared

  • Doug Dern (Natural Law), chair of the Natural Law Party and perennial candidate[151]
  • Douglas Marsh (Green), newspaper journalist[151]
  • Joseph Solis-Mullen (Libertarian), college professor[151]
  • Dave Stein (U.S. Taxpayers), blue collar worker[151]

General election

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Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Mike Rogers (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide elected officials

Mayors

Organizations


Elissa Slotkin (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Slotkin won seven of 13 congressional districts, including her own district, which elected a Republican to replace her.[282]

More information District, Slotkin ...
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Notes

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  1. Michigan Professional Union and Local 412
  2. Disqualified candidate
  3. $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  4. Withdrawn candidate
  5. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  7. Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  8. Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  9. Numbered as the 4th from 2015–2023
  10. "Someone else" with 3%
  11. "Someone else" with 6%
  12. Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J. D. Wilson with 0%
  13. Nikki Snyder with 6%; Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
  14. Calculated by taking the dƒifference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  15. "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%
  18. "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%; "I did not vote for this office" with 1%
  22. "Third party candidate" with 6%; "Did not or would not vote" with 1%
  23. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 2%
  24. "Refused" with 2%; Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; Dern (NL) with <1%
  25. "Refused" with 1%
  26. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%
  27. "Another Candidate" with 2%; Solis-Mullen (L), Stein (C), and "Did Note Vote for Senator" with 1%
  28. "Refused" with 2%
  29. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  30. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  31. "Some other candidate" and "Would not vote" with 2% each
  32. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  33. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  34. Not appearing on ballot
  35. Frizzell (I),[ah] Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L) & Stein (T) with 1%; Dern (NL) with 0%
  36. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%, Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%
  37. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  38. "Other" with 1%
  39. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  40. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  41. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 1%
  42. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  43. "Someone else" with 2%
  44. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. "Someone else" with 3%
  46. Marsh (G) with 2%; "Won't vote" with 2%
  47. Marsh (G) and Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (UST) and Dern (NL) with <1%
  48. Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Dern (NL) with 1%
  49. Solis-Mullen (L), Marsh (G), Stein (C), and Dern (NLP) with 1%
  50. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Marsh (G) with 2%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 0%
  51. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 4%
  52. "Another candidate" with 4%
  53. "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service
  2. Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  3. Poll sponsored by the Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release that describes Elissa Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race.[97]
  4. Poll sponsored by Rogers's campaign
  5. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  6. Poll sponsored by Michigan News Source
  7. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  8. Poll sponsored by Rogers' campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by the Detroit Free Press
  10. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. Poll sponsored by USA Today
  12. Poll sponsored by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
  13. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  14. Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
  15. Poll sponsored by AARP
  16. Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  17. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans
  18. Poll sponsored by Americans for IVF
  19. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  20. Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  21. Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  22. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  23. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats
  24. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party
  25. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  26. Poll sponsored by Vapor Technology Association
  27. Poll sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber
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References

External links

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