Saint-Jean (provincial electoral district)

Saint-Jean (French pronunciation: [sɛ̃ ʒɑ̃] ^ⓘ) is a provincial electoral district in the Montérégie region of the province of Quebec. It comprises most of Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and all of Saint-Blaise-sur-Richelieu.

Saint-Jean

Quebec electoral district
Provincial electoral district
Legislature	National Assembly of Quebec
MNA	Louis Lemieux Coalition Avenir Québec
District created	1867
District abolished	1939
District re-created	1944
First contested	1867, 1944
Last contested	1939, 2018
Demographics
Electors (2012)[1]	58,109
Area (km²)[2]	243.6
Census division(s)	Le Haut-Richelieu (part)
Census subdivision(s)	Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu (part), Saint-Blaise-sur-Richelieu

It was created for the 1867 election (and an electoral district of that name existed earlier in the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Canada). It disappeared in the 1939 election and its successor electoral district was Saint-Jean–Napierville; however, it was re-created for the 1944 election.

In the change from the 2001 to the 2011 electoral map, its territory was unchanged.

In the 1994 election (on September 12) there was a tie between incumbent Liberal candidate Michel Charbonneau and PQ candidate Roger Paquin. A new election was held on October 24 and was won by Paquin by a margin of 532 votes.

Bellwether district

The Saint-Jean district had been for a long time considered a reliable bellwether district.^[3] From 1897 to 1936, from 1944 to 2007, in 2012 and 2018, the Saint-Jean district elected a member of the governing party.

In 1994, the Saint-Jean district received high media coverage following the September 12 general election. As a consequence of a tie in the number of votes between Michel Charbonneau (PLQ) and Roger Paquin (PQ), no candidate is declared a winner.^[4] This unique situation in the history of Quebec politics necessitates a new district election that took place on October 24, 1994. The victory of the PQ candidate strengthens the perception that Saint-Jean is a bellwether district, for two reasons: the initial tie in the votes reflects, according to some commentators, the weak majority by the PQ over the liberals that were obtained provincially in the general election. Secondly, the victory of Paquin confirms that, once again, voters in Saint-Jean tend to vote for the party forming the government.^[5]

Even though Saint-Jean voters, since 2007, have selected some candidates forming the opposition party, the media sometimes still refer to it as a bellwether district.^[6]

Other provincial districts that are sometimes considered as bellwether include^[3] Terrebonne (Lanaudière), Trois-Rivières^[7] (Mauricie), and Chauveau (Capitale-Nationale).

The federal electoral district of Saint-Jean, which includes parts of the provincial Saint-Jean and Iberville districts, is also sometimes cited as a bellwether.^[8]

Members of the Legislative Assembly / National Assembly

Legislature	Years	Member		Party
1st	1867–1871		Felix-Gabriel Marchand	Liberal
2nd	1871–1875
3rd	1875–1878
4th	1878–1881
5th	1881–1886
6th	1886–1890
7th	1890–1892
8th	1892–1897
9th	1897–1900
10th	1900–1904		Philippe-Honoré Roy
11th	1904–1908
12th	1908–1910		Gabriel Marchand
	1910–1912		Marcellin Robert
13th	1912–1912		Jean Lomer Gouin
	1913–1916		Marcellin Robert
14th	1916–1919
15th	1919–1923		Alexis Bouthillier
16th	1923–1927
17th	1927–1931
18th	1931–1935
19th	1935–1936
20th	1936–1939
Riding dissolved into Saint-Jean–Napierville
Riding re-created from Saint-Jean–Napierville
22nd	1944–1948		Jean-Paul Beaulieu	Union Nationale
23rd	1948–1952
24th	1952–1956
25th	1956–1960
26th	1960–1962		Philodor Ouimet	Liberal
27th	1962–1966
28th	1966–1969		Jérôme Proulx	Union Nationale
	1969–1969			Independent
	1969–1970			Parti Québécois
29th	1970–1973		Jacques Veilleux	Liberal
30th	1973–1976
31st	1976–1981		Jérôme Proulx	Parti Québécois
32nd	1981–1985
33rd	1985–1989		Pierre Lorrain	Liberal
34th	1989–1994		Michel Charbonneau
35th	1994–1998		Roger Paquin	Parti Québécois
36th	1998–2003
37th	2003–2007		Jean-Pierre Paquin	Liberal
38th	2007–2008		Lucille Méthé	Action démocratique
39th	2008–2012		Dave Turcotte	Parti Québécois
40th	2012–2014
41st	2014–2018
42nd	2018–2022		Louis Lemieux	Coalition Avenir Québec
43rd	2022–Present

Election results

v t e 2022 Quebec general election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Coalition Avenir Québec	Louis Lemieux
	Parti Québécois	Alexandre Girard-Duchaine
	Québec solidaire	Pierre-Luc Lavertu
	Conservative	Dominick Melnitzky
	Liberal	Benjamin Roy
	Climat Québec	Denis Thériault			–
	Démocratie directe	Raymond Choquette			–
Total valid votes				–
Total rejected ballots				–
Turnout
Electors on the lists				–	–

v t e 2018 Quebec general election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Coalition Avenir Québec	Louis Lemieux	16,789	39.50	+8.42
	Parti Québécois	Dave Turcotte	13,171	30.99	-1.45
	Québec solidaire	Simon Lalonde	6,137	14.44	+7.94
	Liberal	Vanessa Parent	4,946	11.64	-16.85
	Green	Véronique Langlois	694	1.63	–
	Conservative	Philippe Perreault	368	0.87	+0.29
	Citoyens au pouvoir	Louis St-Jacques	240	0.56	–
	New Democratic	Geneviève Ruel	159	0.37	–
Total valid votes			42,504	98.13
Total rejected ballots			809	1.87
Turnout			43,313	71.28	-0.39
Eligible voters			60,761
	Coalition Avenir Québec gain from Parti Québécois		Swing		+4.94
Source(s) "Rapport des résultats officiels du scrutin". Élections Québec.

2014 Quebec general election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Parti Québécois	Dave Turcotte	13,486	32.44	-8.29
	Coalition Avenir Québec	Serge Tremblay	12,923	31.08	-1.09
	Liberal	Marie-Josée Denis	11,845	28.49	+8.56
	Québec solidaire	Carole Lusignan	2,693	6.48	+2.28
	Option nationale	Jade Bossé Bélanger	386	0.93	-0.78
	Conservative	Maryse Grenier	243	0.58
Total valid votes			41,576	97.83
Total rejected ballots			921	2.17
Turnout			42,497	71.67
Electors on the lists			59,296
	Parti Québécois hold		Swing		-4.69

Reference for 2014 results:^[9]

2012 Quebec general election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Parti Québécois	Dave Turcotte	18,304	40.73	+1.58
	Coalition Avenir Québec	Yvan Berthelot	14,457	32.17	+13.96
	Liberal	Martin Massé	8,955	19.93	-16.59
	Québec solidaire	Carole Lusignan	1,886	4.20	+1.97
	Option nationale	Félix Lemaire	770	1.71
	Conservative	Carmyn Girard	267	0.59
	Parti indépendantiste	Yvon Silva Aubé	190	0.42	-0.13
	Quebec Citizens' Union	François Mailly	109	0.24
Total valid votes			44,938	98.43
Total rejected ballots			718	1.57
Turnout			45,656	78.34
Electors on the lists			58,282
	Parti Québécois hold		Swing		-6.19

^ Change CAQ change is from ADQ
Reference for 2012 results:^[10]

2008 Quebec general election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Parti Québécois	Dave Turcotte	13,474	39.15	+9.88
	Liberal	Jean-Pierre Paquin	12,568	36.52	+11.64
	Action démocratique	Lucille Méthé	6,266	18.21	-24.01
	Green	Eric Beaudry	1,034	3.00	–
	Québec solidaire	Danielle Desmarais	768	2.23	-1.30
	Parti indépendantiste	Martin Rioux	189	0.55	–
	Independent	Guillaume Tremblay	118	0.34	-3.29

2007 Quebec general election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Action démocratique	Lucille Méthé	17,189	42.22	+23.29
	Parti Québécois	Dave Turcotte	11,916	29.27	-7.79
	Liberal	Jean-Pierre Paquin	10,131	24.88	-15.87
	Québec solidaire	Guillaume Tremblay	1,478	3.63	+2.15

v t e Quebec provincial by-election, October 24, 1994
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Parti Québécois	Roger Paquin	15,680	43.80	+1.30
	Liberal	Michel Charbonneau	15,148	42.30	-0.20
	Action démocratique	Daniel Lefebvre	4,693	11.96	+1.14
	New Democratic	Julien Patenaude	204	0.60	-1.00
	Sovereignty	Réal Brunette	232	0.20	-0.40
Total valid votes			35,807	98.66
Total rejected ballots			487	1.34	-1.61
Turnout			36,294	76.53	-5.48
Electors on the lists			47,426
	Parti Québécois gain from Liberal		Swing		+0.75

v t e 1994 Quebec general election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Michel Charbonneau	16,536	42.50	-11.10
	Parti Québécois	Roger Paquin	16,536	42.50	+3.20
	Action démocratique	Daniel Lefebvre	4,494	11.96	–
	New Democratic	Julien Patenaude	638	1.60	-3.40
	Natural Law	Anne Bélanger	313	0.80	–
	Sovereignty	Réal Brunette	232	0.60	–
	Equality	Richard Beaucage	145	0.40	–
Total valid votes			38,894	–
Turnout			38,894	82.01	+3.85
Electors on the lists			47,426
The result was declared void as a result of the tie and a subsequent by-election was held on October 24, 1994