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2012 Queensland state election

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2012 Queensland state election
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The 2012 Queensland state election was held on 24 March 2012 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament.[1]

Quick Facts All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland 45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority, Turnout ...

The Labor Party (ALP), led by Premier Anna Bligh, was defeated by the opposition Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Campbell Newman in a landslide victory. It is only the sixth time that Queenslanders have ousted a sitting government since 1915. The ALP was attempting to win a ninth consecutive election victory, having won every general election since 1989, despite being out of office between 1996 and 1998. Katter's Australian Party contested its first election. Before the election, it held two seats whose members had been elected as LNP candidates.

Labor suffered one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation, and the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. From 51 seats in 2009, it was reduced to only seven seats, suffering a swing of 15.6 percentage points. The LNP won a majority for the first time in its history, jumping from 34 to 78 seats to win the largest majority government in Queensland history. It was the first outright non-Labor majority since the Queensland Nationals won their last victory in 1986. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, though leader Aidan McLindon lost his own seat. The remaining two seats were taken by independents. Newman took office two days after the election.

Historically, Queenslanders have given their governments long tenures in office. The 2012 election marked only the sixth change of government in the state since 1915.

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Background

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In choosing 24 March, Bligh made the unusual step of announcing the election date two months prior. Bligh was criticised for selecting a date which required the postponement of local government elections.[2] Bligh has said that date allowed Queenslanders to view the final report of the Commission of Inquiry into the 2010–11 Queensland floods before they vote.[3] Normal practice in Australia is for parliament to be dissolved at the time of the election announcement. However, Bligh did not formally ask Governor Penelope Wensley to dissolve Parliament until 19 February. Wensley granted the request, formally beginning the 35-day campaign.[4] By not asking for a dissolution in January, Bligh avoided placing the government in caretaker mode for 25 days.[3]

Leadership of the Liberal National Party

Campbell Newman was elected leader of the LNP in early 2011 while he was the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Standard practice calls for an MP from a safe seat to resign so that a newly elected leader can get into parliament via a by-election, though this is not universally followed. However, when Newman won the leadership in 2011, a by-election could not be arranged.[5] For this reason, Jeff Seeney was elected as interim parliamentary leader of the LNP and Leader of the Opposition. Newman led the LNP election team from outside of parliament, often sitting at the galleries, and simultaneously contested the seat of Ashgrove as the LNP candidate.[6]

Disendorsed candidates

The Liberal National Party disendorsed two candidates for the Gold Coast seat of Broadwater. Richard Townson was caught drink driving with a blood alcohol content of 0.07 when he was in a police random breath test. Cameron Caldwell was disendorsed when he confirmed he had attended a Gold Coast swingers' club.[7]

The Australian Labor Party disendorsed candidate Peter Watson for the seat of Southern Downs and expelled him from the party for making racist and homophobic remarks online.[8]

Katter appeal on ballot papers

On 2 March 2012, Katter's Australian Party sought an injunction in the Supreme Court of Queensland to have more than 2 million ballot papers shredded and reprinted. The party said the Queensland Electoral Commission used the party's abbreviated name, "The Australian Party", instead of its registered name, "Katter's Australian Party (Qld Division)", which the party claimed could confuse voters.[9] Bligh said that her lawyers had advised her to reschedule the election if Katter's challenge succeeded.[10]

On 7 March, Supreme Court Justice Roslyn Atkinson referred the matter to the Queensland Court of Appeal as matters of constitutional law in the case were outside her jurisdiction.[11] The Court of Appeal rejected the constitutional arguments and dismissed the appeal the following day.[12]

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Key dates

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Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Independent


Results

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The estimated two-party preferred result was 37.2% for Labor and 62.8% for the LNP, a swing of 13.7% from Labor's result of 2009.[22]

The LNP had been unbackable favourites to win the election. By the time the writs were issued, they had led opinion polling for over a year, and had been ahead of Labor on all but one Newspoll since 2010.

The LNP swept Labor from power in a massive landslide, taking 78 seats to Labor's seven on a two-party-preferred swing of 13.7 points away from Labor. The 44-seat loss is double the 22-seat loss suffered by the Nationals in the 1989 election, the previous record for the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. The 13.7-percent swing is one of the largest against a sitting state government in Australia since World War II.

In the process, the LNP won many seats considered Labor heartland. It broke Labor's longstanding grip on Brisbane, taking all but three of the city's 40 seats, some on swings of 10 points or more. By comparison, Labor went into the election holding all but six seats in the capital, which had been its power base for over 20 years. In every election since the "one vote, one value" reforms of the Goss government, Labor had won at least 30 seats in Brisbane. The LNP also won every seat on the Gold Coast while strengthening its hold on its traditional heartlands in provincial and rural Queensland. Ten members of Bligh's cabinet were defeated. Newman won Ashgrove handily, defeating Labor's Kate Jones on a 13-point swing, almost double the 7-point swing he needed to take the seat off Labor.

ABC News called the election for the LNP at 6:48 pm Queensland time, less than an hour after counting began. Bligh conceded defeat at 8:25 pm, and Newman publicly claimed victory 20 minutes later.[23]

The day after the election, Bligh resigned as premier and Queensland Labor leader. She also announced she was resigning from parliament on 30 March and retiring from politics, triggering a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane.[24][25] An hour later, Newman, who at the time did not know that Bligh had resigned, announced that he would be sworn in as premier on 26 March, heading an interim three-man cabinet composed of himself, Seeney and Tim Nicholls. Although Newman's victory was beyond doubt, counting was still under way in some seats.[14] Bligh handed in her resignation later on the afternoon of 25 March, but remained as caretaker until Newman was sworn in the next day.

Labor was reduced to its smallest presence in the legislature on record, outdoing its previous low in 1974, when it was cut down to a "cricket team" of only 11 members at the height of Joh Bjelke-Petersen's power. Indeed, Michael Madigan of The Courier-Mail wrote that Labor had been reduced to a "water polo squad."[26]

Although Labor came up two seats short of official party status in the legislature, Newman promised that Labor would be "properly resourced as an opposition".[27]

More information Party, Votes ...


More information Popular vote ...
More information Two-party preferred vote ...
More information Seats ...
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Seats changing hands

More information Seat, 2009 Election ...
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • 1 Shane Knuth was elected as a member of the Liberal National Party, but resigned and joined Katter's Australian Party in 2011.
  • The Liberal National Party also retained the seats of Beaudesert, where the sitting Liberal National member had resigned and contested the election as a member of Katter's Australian Party. The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Burnett, where the sitting Liberal National member had resigned and contested the election as an Independent.
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Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Bulimba Aaron Dillaway LNP 0.14%
Maryborough Anne Maddern LNP 0.31% v IND
Waterford Mike Latter LNP 1.04%
Thuringowa Sam Cox LNP 1.38% v KAP
Yeerongpilly Carl Judge LNP 1.44%
Lytton Neil Symes LNP 1.58%
Greenslopes Ian Kaye LNP 2.45%
Sandgate Kerry Millard LNP 2.87%
Nudgee Jason Woodforth LNP 3.11%
Cook David Kempton LNP 3.43%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 3.63% v KAP
Capalaba Steve Davies LNP 3.73%
Ipswich Ian Berry LNP 4.19%
Logan Michael Pucci LNP 4.80%
Townsville John Hathaway LNP 4.83%
Brisbane Central Robert Cavallucci LNP 4.88%
Mount Coot-tha Saxon Rice LNP 5.36%
Morayfield Darren Grimwade LNP 5.57%
Ashgrove Campbell Newman LNP 5.70%
Fairly safe
Keppel Bruce Young LNP 6.39%
Stafford Chris Davis LNP 7.06%
Ipswich West Sean Choat LNP 7.16%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 8.50% v IND
Cairns Gavin King LNP 8.87%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 8.98% v KAP
Algester Anthony Shorten LNP 9.15%
Barron River Michael Trout LNP 9.48%
Ferny Grove Dale Shuttleworth LNP 9.52%
Murrumba Reg Gulley LNP 9.52%
Stretton Freya Ostapovitch LNP 9.55%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 9.58%
Safe
Redcliffe Scott Driscoll LNP 10.10%
Mundingburra David Crisafulli LNP 10.19%
Sunnybank Mark Stewart LNP 10.23%
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP 10.56% v KAP
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 10.67%
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 11.05%
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP 11.14%
Mirani Ted Malone LNP 11.19%
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP 11.29%
Albert Mark Boothman LNP 11.89%
Pumicestone Lisa France LNP 12.07%
Kallangur Trevor Ruthenberg LNP 12.43%
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP 12.47% v KAP
Everton Tim Mander LNP 13.15%
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP 13.51% v KAP
Pine Rivers Seath Holswich LNP 13.66%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 13.94%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 14.72%
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP 14.87% v KAP
Springwood John Grant LNP 15.39%
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP 16.48%
Gympie David Gibson LNP 17.26% v KAP
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 18.10%
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP 18.17%
Gaven Alex Douglas LNP 19.10%
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 19.55%
Very safe
Condamine Ray Hopper LNP 20.10% v KAP
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 20.18%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 20.39%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 20.56%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 20.93%
Redlands Peter Dowling LNP 21.10%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 21.23%
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP 21.62%
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 21.72%
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 21.75%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 23.26%
Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP 23.91%
Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP 25.06%
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP 25.46% v GRN
Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP 25.48%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 25.93%
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 26.01%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 26.05%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 26.26%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 29.50%
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 29.77% v KAP
Non-government seats
Marginal
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 0.53%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 1.15%
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 1.82%
Rockhampton William Byrne ALP 3.95%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 4.66%
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 5.80%
Fairly safe
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 6.90%
Crossbench seats
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND 4.55% v LNP
Mount Isa Robbie Katter KAP 10.04% v LNP
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND 14.03% v ALP
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP 15.22% v LNP
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Subsequent changes

  • On 30 March 2012, former Premier Anna Bligh (South Brisbane) resigned. At the by-election on 28 April 2012, Jackie Trad retained the electorate for the Labor Party.
  • On 28 November 2012, Ray Hopper (Condamine) resigned from the Liberal National Party and joined Katter's Australian Party.
  • On 30 November 2012, Carl Judge (Yeerongpilly) resigned from the Liberal National Party and sat as an Independent. He then joined the Palmer United Party on 7 June 2013, but resigned on 8 October 2014 and again sat as an Independent.
  • On 1 December 2012, Alex Douglas (Gaven) resigned from the Liberal National Party and sat as an Independent. He then joined the Palmer United Party on 7 Jun 2013, but resigned on 18 August 2014 and again sat as an Independent.
  • On 19 April 2013, Scott Driscoll (Redcliffe) resigned from the Liberal National Party and sat as an Independent. On 19 November 2013 he resigned. At the by-election on 22 February 2014, Yvette D'Ath gained the seat for the Labor Party.
  • On 23 May 2014, Chris Davis (Stafford) resigned. At the by-election on 19 July 2014, Anthony Lynham gained the seat for the Labor Party.
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Retiring MPs

The following Members of Parliament stood down at the election:

Labor

LNP

Independent

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Polling

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Newspoll and Galaxy polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 800-1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of primary voting opinion polls for the 2012 Queensland state election.
Graphical summary of two-party preferred voting opinion polls for the 2012 Queensland state election.
More information Primary vote, TPP vote ...

Better Premier and leadership approval graphical summary

Graphical summary of Better Premier opinion polling for the 2012 Queensland state election.
Graphical summary of Anna Bligh's approval ratings as Premier.
More information Bligh, Newman ...
More information Bligh, Newman ...
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Newspaper endorsements

More information Newspaper, Endorsement ...
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See also

References

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