2015 Queensland state election

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

2015 Queensland state election

← 2012 31 January 2015 2017 →
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland 45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	89.89 ( 1.11 pp)
First party Second party Third party   KAP Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Campbell Newman Ray Hopper Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 22 March 2011 (2011-03-22) 29 November 2012 (2012-11-29) Leader's seat Inala Ashgrove (lost seat) Condamine (lost Nanango) Last election 7 seats, 26.66% 78 seats, 49.66% 2 seats, 11.53% Seats before 9 73 3 Seats won 44 42 2 Seat change 35 31 1 Popular vote 983,054 1,084,060 50,588 Percentage 37.47% 41.32% 1.93% Swing 10.81 8.33 9.61 TPP 51.1% 48.9% TPP swing 14.0 14.0
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election Campbell Newman Liberal National Premier after election Annastacia Palaszczuk Labor

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, attempted to win a second term but was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Labor formed a minority government with the support of the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Wellington. It is only the seventh change of government in Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to win government from opposition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in 2001 at an election in the Northern Territory).

The previous election saw Labor, which had governed the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded as party leader by her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for another term with a reduced majority.

On election night, the outcome of the election was inconclusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up being a record 14-point two-party swing.^[1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sitting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman announced his retirement from politics, though remained as caretaker premier pending the final results. According to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane's The Courier-Mail, Labor had taken at least 30 seats from the LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing it needed to form government in its own right—a feat initially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either two or three seats short of a majority.^[2][3] Political analysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter's Australian Party and independent Wellington.

Wellington announced on 5 February he would support a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote on conscience.^[4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commission of Queensland declared the results of the election. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting Labor in a position to form a minority government in the hung parliament.^[5][6][7] Even allowing for the LNP's previously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44-seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two-party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points.

Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 February and advised him that she could form a minority government.^[8][9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally invited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland.^[10]

Background

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2012

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning Ashgrove from the former Environment Minister, Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections occurred after the 2012 state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July. Jackie Trad held Bligh's former seat of South Brisbane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following Bligh's resignation from parliament.

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that Newman intended to announce the election date the next day.^[11][12] On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twitter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and writs had been issued for an election on 31 January.^[13][14] This was the first time in over a century that an Australian general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 1874–75.^[15]

The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Davenport state by-election in South Australia.

Key dates

Date	Event
6 January 2015	Writ of election issued by the acting Governor[16]
10 January 2015	Close of electoral rolls
13 January 2015	Close of nominations
31 January 2015	Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
10 February 2015	Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
13 February 2015	Election results declared, Annastacia Palaszczuk is asked to form government
14 February 2015	Interim Palaszczuk Ministry is sworn in
16 February 2015	Full Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
16 February 2015	Writ returned and results formally declared
24 March 2015	55th Parliament convened

Retiring members

Labor

• Tim Mulherin (Mackay) – Announced 9 January 2015^[17]
• Desley Scott (Woodridge) – Announced 11 March 2014^[18]

Liberal National

• Peter Dowling (Redlands) – Lost preselection 25 October 2014^[19]
• Bruce Flegg (Moggill) – Lost preselection 7 December 2014^[20]
• David Gibson (Gympie) – Announced 2 May 2014^[21]
• Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – Announced 5 September 2014^[22]
• Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – Announced 2 October 2014^[23]
• Ted Malone (Mirani) – Announced 26 September 2014^[24]
• Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – Announced 19 September 2014^[25]

Independent

• Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) – Announced 6 January 2015^[26]

Results

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015 and Results of the Queensland state election, 2015

The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election.

Winning party by electorate.

Results of the 2015 Queensland state election, Legislative Assembly

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Liberal National	1,084,060	41.32	–8.33	42	-34
	Labor	983,054	37.47	+10.81	44	+35
	Greens	221,157	8.43	+0.90	0	±0
	Palmer United	133,929	5.11	+5.11	0	±0
	Katter's Australian	50,588	1.93	–9.61	2	±0
	Family First	31,231	1.19	–0.17	0	±0
	One Nation	24,111	0.92	+0.82	0	±0
	Independents	95,313	3.63	+0.47	1	–1
Total		2,623,443	100.00	–	89	–
Valid votes		2,623,443	97.89
Invalid/blank votes		56,431	2.11	–0.05
Total votes		2,679,874	100.00	–
Registered voters/turnout		2,981,145	89.89	–1.11

Gallagher Index for the 2015 Queensland state election

Party		Votes (%)	Seats (%)	Difference	Difference squared
	Liberal National	41.32%	47.19%	5.87	34.4569
	Labor	37.47%	49.44%	11.97	143.2809
	Greens	8.43%	0.00%	-8.43	71.0649
	Palmer United	5.11%	0.00%	-5.11	26.1121
	Katter's Australian	1.93%	2.25%	0.32	0.1024
	Family First	1.19%	0.00%	-1.19	1.4161
	One Nation	0.92%	0.00%	-0.92	0.8464
	Independent	3.63%	1.12%	-2.51	6.3001
Total of differences squared					283.5798
Total / 2					141.7899
Square root of (Total / 2): Gallagher Index result					11.91
The Gallagher Index ranges from 0 to 100. Low indexes (close to 0) are very proportionate, high indexes (20 or greater) are very disproportionate.

Popular vote LNP   41.32% Labor   37.47% Greens   8.43% Palmer United   5.11% Katter's   1.93% Family First   1.19% One Nation   0.92% Independents   3.63%

Two-party preferred vote Labor   51.1% LNP   48.9%

Seats Labor   49.44% LNP   47.19% Katter's   2.25% Independents   1.12%

Seats changing hands

Seat	2012 Election				Swing	2015 Election[27]
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Algester		Liberal National	Anthony Shorten	9.15	−16.14	6.99	Leeanne Enoch	Labor
Ashgrove		Liberal National	Campbell Newman	5.70	−9.95	4.25	Kate Jones	Labor
Barron River		Liberal National	Michael Trout	9.48	−12.60	3.12	Craig Crawford	Labor
Brisbane Central		Liberal National	Robert Cavallucci	4.88	−8.13	3.25	Grace Grace	Labor
Bulimba		Liberal National	Aaron Dillaway	0.14	−6.28	6.14	Di Farmer	Labor
Bundaberg		Liberal National	Jack Dempsey	18.17	−19.79	1.62	Leanne Donaldson	Labor
Cairns		Liberal National	Gavin King	8.87	−17.32	8.45	Rob Pyne	Labor
Capalaba		Liberal National	Steve Davies	3.73	−10.79	7.06	Don Brown	Labor
Cook		Liberal National	David Kempton	3.43	−10.20	6.77	Billy Gordon	Labor
Ferny Grove		Liberal National	Dale Shuttleworth	9.52	−10.34	0.82	Mark Furner	Labor
Gladstone		Independent	Liz Cunningham	14.03	−25.93	11.89	Glenn Butcher	Labor
Greenslopes		Liberal National	Ian Kaye	2.45	−6.70	4.25	Joe Kelly	Labor
Ipswich		Liberal National	Ian Berry	4.19	−20.09	15.90	Jennifer Howard	Labor
Ipswich West		Liberal National	Sean Choat	7.16	−14.88	7.71	Jim Madden	Labor
Kallangur		Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	12.43	−18.57	6.13	Shane King	Labor
Keppel		Liberal National	Bruce Young	6.39	−11.19	4.80	Brittany Lauga	Labor
Logan		Liberal National	Michael Pucci	4.80	−15.63	10.82	Linus Power	Labor
Lytton		Liberal National	Neil Symes	1.58	−11.37	9.80	Joan Pease	Labor
Maryborough		Liberal National	Anne Maddern	0.31	−1.96	1.65	Bruce Saunders	Labor
Mirani		Liberal National	Ted Malone	11.19	−16.01	4.82	Jim Pearce	Labor
Morayfield		Liberal National	Darren Grimwade	5.57	−17.49	11.91	Mark Ryan	Labor
Mount Coot-tha		Liberal National	Saxon Rice	5.36	−7.94	2.59	Steven Miles	Labor
Mundingburra		Liberal National	David Crisafulli	10.19	−12.95	2.76	Coralee O'Rourke	Labor
Murrumba		Liberal National	Reg Gulley	9.52	−16.88	7.35	Chris Whiting	Labor
Nudgee		Liberal National	Jason Woodforth	3.11	−14.36	11.25	Leanne Linard	Labor
Pine Rivers		Liberal National	Seath Holswich	13.66	−21.34	7.68	Nikki Boyd	Labor
Pumicestone		Liberal National	Lisa France	12.07	−14.16	2.08	Rick Williams	Labor
Sandgate		Liberal National	Kerry Millard	2.87	−12.96	10.10	Stirling Hinchliffe	Labor
Springwood		Liberal National	John Grant	15.39	−17.13	1.73	Mick de Brenni	Labor
Stretton		Liberal National	Freya Ostapovitch	9.55	−14.54	4.98	Duncan Pegg	Labor
Sunnybank		Liberal National	Mark Stewart	10.23	−17.42	7.19	Peter Russo	Labor
Thuringowa		Liberal National	Sam Cox	1.38	−6.92	5.54	Aaron Harper	Labor
Townsville		Liberal National	John Hathaway	4.83	−10.52	5.69	Scott Stewart	Labor
Waterford		Liberal National	Mike Latter	1.04	−14.37	13.33	Shannon Fentiman	Labor
Yeerongpilly		Liberal National	Carl Judge1	1.44	−14.74	13.30	Mark Bailey	Labor

• Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
• ¹ Carl Judge was elected as a member of the Liberal National Party, but resigned and contested the election as an Independent.
• The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Condamine, where the sitting member had resigned from the Liberal National Party, but contested Nanango as a member of Katter's Australian Party.
• The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Gaven, where the sitting member had resigned from the Liberal National Party and contested the election as an Independent.

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Ferny Grove	Mark Furner	ALP	0.82%
Bundaberg	Leanne Donaldson	ALP	1.62%
Maryborough	Bruce Saunders	ALP	1.65%
Springwood	Mick de Brenni	ALP	1.73%
Pumicestone	Rick Williams	ALP	2.08%
Mount Coot-tha	Steven Miles	ALP	2.59%
Mundingburra	Coralee O'Rourke	ALP	2.76%
Barron River	Craig Crawford	ALP	3.12%
Brisbane Central	Grace Grace	ALP	3.25%
Greenslopes	Joe Kelly	ALP	4.25%
Ashgrove	Kate Jones	ALP	4.25%
Keppel	Brittany Lauga	ALP	4.80%
Mirani	Jimmy Pearce	ALP	4.82%
Stretton	Duncan Pegg	ALP	4.98%
Thuringowa	Aaron Harper	ALP	5.54%
Townsville	Scott Stewart	ALP	5.69%
Fairly safe
Kallangur	Shane King	ALP	6.13%
Bulimba	Di Farmer	ALP	6.14%
Cook	Billy Gordon	ALP	6.77%
Algester	Leeanne Enoch	ALP	6.99%
Capalaba	Don Brown	ALP	7.06%
Sunnybank	Peter Russo	ALP	7.19%
Murrumba	Chris Whiting	ALP	7.35%
Redcliffe	Yvette D'Ath	ALP	7.58%
Pine Rivers	Nikki Boyd	ALP	7.68%
Ipswich West	Jim Madden	ALP	7.71%
Cairns	Rob Pyne	ALP	8.45%
Stafford	Anthony Lynham	ALP	9.59%
Lytton	Joan Pease	ALP	9.80%
Safe
Sandgate	Stirling Hinchliffe	ALP	10.10%
Logan	Linus Power	ALP	10.82%
Nudgee	Leanne Linard	ALP	11.25%
Morayfield	Mark Ryan	ALP	11.91%
Gladstone	Glenn Butcher	ALP	11.89% v IND
Mackay	Julieanne Gilbert	ALP	12.39%
Mulgrave	Curtis Pitt	ALP	12.76%
Yeerongpilly	Mark Bailey	ALP	13.30%
Waterford	Shannon Fentiman	ALP	13.33%
South Brisbane	Jackie Trad	ALP	13.79%
Rockhampton	William Byrne	ALP	13.87%
Ipswich	Jennifer Howard	ALP	15.90%
Very safe
Bundamba	Jo-Ann Miller	ALP	21.43%
Inala	Annastacia Palaszczuk	ALP	25.12%
Woodridge	Cameron Dick	ALP	25.95%

Non-government seats
Marginal
Lockyer	Ian Rickuss	LNP	0.22% v ONP
Mount Ommaney	Tarnya Smith	LNP	0.23%
Whitsunday	Jason Costigan	LNP	0.38%
Mansfield	Ian Walker	LNP	0.55%
Glass House	Andrew Powell	LNP	1.41%
Toowoomba North	Trevor Watts	LNP	1.61%
Albert	Mark Boothman	LNP	1.67%
Everton	Tim Mander	LNP	1.77%
Redlands	Matt McEachan	LNP	2.23%
Gaven	Sid Cramp	LNP	2.24%
Chatsworth	Steve Minnikin	LNP	2.62%
Burdekin	Dale Last	LNP	2.88%
Southport	Rob Molhoek	LNP	3.24%
Caloundra	Mark McArdle	LNP	3.82%
Aspley	Tracy Davis	LNP	5.17%
Currumbin	Jann Stuckey	LNP	5.23%
Cleveland	Mark Robinson	LNP	5.45%
Fairly safe
Burleigh	Michael Hart	LNP	6.16%
Hervey Bay	Ted Sorensen	LNP	6.62%
Callide	Jeff Seeney	LNP	6.67% v PUP
Indooroopilly	Scott Emerson	LNP	6.73%
Burnett	Stephen Bennett	LNP	6.80%
Gympie	Tony Perrett	LNP	7.10%
Broadwater	Verity Barton	LNP	7.19%
Clayfield	Tim Nicholls	LNP	7.21%
Beaudesert	Jon Krause	LNP	7.53%
Moggill	Christian Rowan	LNP	8.21%
Coomera	Michael Crandon	LNP	8.53%
Noosa	Glen Elmes	LNP	8.62% v GRN
Toowoomba South	John McVeigh	LNP	8.89%
Hinchinbrook	Andrew Cripps	LNP	8.92%
Maroochydore	Fiona Simpson	LNP	9.27%
Safe
Kawana	Jarrod Bleijie	LNP	10.09%
Mudgeeraba	Ros Bates	LNP	10.97%
Gregory	Lachlan Millar	LNP	11.07%
Buderim	Steve Dickson	LNP	12.16%
Mermaid Beach	Ray Stevens	LNP	12.93%
Nanango	Deb Frecklington	LNP	13.16%
Warrego	Ann Leahy	LNP	15.43%
Condamine	Pat Weir	LNP	16.28%
Southern Downs	Lawrence Springborg	LNP	19.20%
Surfers Paradise	John-Paul Langbroek	LNP	19.21%
Crossbench seats
Nicklin	Peter Wellington	IND	14.89 v LNP
Dalrymple	Shane Knuth	KAP	15.10 v LNP
Mount Isa	Robbie Katter	KAP	15.19 v LNP

Subsequent changes

• On 31 March 2015, Billy Gordon (Cook) was expelled from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.
• On 8 March 2016, Rob Pyne (Cairns) resigned from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.
• On 29 April 2016, John McVeigh (Toowoomba South) resigned. At the by-election on 16 July 2016, David Janetzki retained the seat for the Liberal National Party.
• On 14 January 2017, Steve Dickson (Buderim) resigned from the Liberal National Party and joined the One Nation Party.
• On 29 October 2017, Rick Williams (Pumicestone) resigned from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.

Aftermath

Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recovering much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 election. Brisbane had been Labor's power base for more than a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election holding 36 of the capital's 40 seats, losing all but three at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins than in 2012.

Although Queensland is Australia's least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been extremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election underscored this. None of the LNP's safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP's safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor's safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candidate for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligible to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat.^[28] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome.^[29]

Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker government to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by-election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung parliament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove.^[30] Conversely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would not affect who forms government.^[31] Professor Graeme Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous to a "constitutional coup". Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election.^[32] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner over LNP incumbent Dale Shuttleworth on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns.^[33] Green analysed the Ferny Grove tally and concluded that Taverner did not have an effect on the outcome of the election. Specifically, Green concluded that at most, 353 of Taverner's ballot papers had exhausted. However, Furner would have still won even if all of those votes had gone to Shuttleworth had Taverner not been on the ballot. To Green's mind, this made it extremely difficult to argue that exhausted preferences alone would be enough to demand a by-election in Ferny Grove.^[34]

On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queensland stated that, based on legal advice, they would not be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Disputed Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey invited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with Springborg later releasing a statement where he "congratulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her government".^[35][36] On 16 February the LNP announced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove result.^[37]

Retiring MPs

Main article: Candidates of the 2015 Queensland state election

Members who were deselected or who chose not to renominate were as follows:

Labor

• Tim Mulherin (Mackay) – announced 9 January 2015^[38]
• Desley Scott (Woodridge) – announced 11 March 2014^[39]

LNP

• Peter Dowling (Redlands) – deselected 25 October 2014^[40]
• Bruce Flegg (Moggill) – deselected 7 December 2014^[41]
• David Gibson (Gympie) – announced 2 May 2014^[42]
• Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – announced 5 September 2014^[43]
• Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – announced 2 October 2014^[44]
• Ted Malone (Mirani) – announced 26 September 2014^[45]
• Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – announced 19 September 2014^[46]

Independent

• Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) – announced 6 January 2015^[47]

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling graph

Two-party preferred opinion polling graph

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling

Date	Firm	Primary vote						TPP vote
		LNP	ALP	GRN	PUP	KAP	OTH	LNP	ALP
29 Jan 2015	Essential[48]	39%	38%	7%	5%	2%	9%	50%	50%
29 Jan 2015	Newspoll[49]	41%	37%	6%	3%	2%	11%	52%	48%
29 Jan 2015	Galaxy[50]	38%	39%	10%	5%	2%	10%	46%	54%
20 Jan 2015	ReachTEL[51]	42%	36.7%	8.4%	5.2%	—	7.6%	52%	48%
16–18 Jan 2015	Roy Morgan[52]	39.5%	37%	10%	4%	3.5%	6%	50.5%	49.5%
7–8 Jan 2015	Galaxy[53]	41%	38%	8%	3%	3%	7%	52%	48%
6–8 Jan 2015	Newspoll[54]	42%	37%	7%	1%	1%	12%	53%	47%
6 Jan 2015	ReachTEL[55]	40.3%	38.1%	7.6%	6.3%	—	7.7%	50%	50%
28 Nov 2014	ReachTEL[55]	39.2%	37.3%	7.9%	6.5%	—	9.1%	49%	51%
21–24 Nov 2014	Roy Morgan[56]	39%	36.5%	9.5%	4%	3.5%	7.5%	50.5%	49.5%
18–19 Nov 2014	Galaxy[53]	37%	38%	9%	7%	3%	6%	50%	50%
Oct–Dec 2014	Newspoll	37%	36%	10%	—	1%*	16%	50%	50%
24–27 Oct 2014	Roy Morgan[57]	38.5%	38%	10%	6%	2%	5.5%	49.5%	50.5%
9 Oct 2014	ReachTEL[55]	40.9%	36.6%	7.6%	7.2%	—	7.7%	51%	49%
26–29 Sept 2014	Roy Morgan[58]	42%	35.5%	9%	6.5%	2.5%	4.5%	51%	49%
4 Sept 2014	ReachTEL[55]	41.2%	36%	6%	9.5%	—	7.2%	51%	49%
12–14 Aug 2014	Galaxy[53]	39%	36%	7%	12%	3%	3%	52%	48%
Jul–Sep 2014	Newspoll	39%	32%	10%	—	1%*	18%	54%	46%
7 Aug 2014	ReachTEL[55]	41%	34.4%	5.5%	12.6%	—	6.5%	52%	48%
3 Jul 2014	ReachTEL[55]	38.7%	34.4%	6.1%	15.4%	—	5.4%	51%	49%
5 Jun 2014	ReachTEL[55]	40.9%	34.1%	5.2%	13.6%	—	6.3%	53%	47%
21–22 May 2014	Galaxy[59]	43%	34%	8%	—	5%	10%	55%	45%
Apr–Jun 2014	Newspoll	32%	34%	8%	—	2%*	24%	49%	51%
2 Apr 2014	ReachTEL[60]	39.1%	35.1%	7.3%	8.0%	3.3%	3.0%	—	—
Jan–Mar 2014	Newspoll	40%	36%	8%	—	1%*	15%	52%	48%
Oct–Dec 2013	Newspoll	40%	32%	8%	—	2%*	18%	55%	45%
10 Jul 2013	ReachTEL[61]	43.3%	37.0%	5.1%	4.5%	5.7%	4.4%	—	—
23 May 2013	ReachTEL[62]	44.6%	28.2%	9.0%	†	10.4%	7.8%	—	—
Apr–Jun 2013	Newspoll	44%	29%	10%	†	3%*	14%	59%	41%
19 Apr 2013	ReachTEL[63]	45.1%	29.2%	7.7%	†	12.7%	5.4%	—	—
23 Mar – 2 Apr 2013	ReachTEL[64]	45.8%	30.4%	8.2%	†	9.9%	5.6%	—	—
20 Mar 2013	ReachTEL[65]	47.8%	30.2%	8.0%	†	10.1%	3.9%	—	—
22 Feb 2013	ReachTEL[66]	47.1%	28.9%	7.9%	†	11.5%	4.5%	—	—
Jan–Mar 2013	Newspoll	49%	27%	6%	†	3%*	15%	62%	38%
18 Jan 2013	ReachTEL[67]	42.5%	34.9%	8.4%	†	10.5%	3.6%	—	—
14 Dec 2012	ReachTEL[68]	41.9%	32.1%	8.2%	†	12.1%	5.7%	—	—
23 Nov 2012	ReachTEL[69]	42%	34.2%	9.5%	†	8.9%	5.4%	—	—
Oct–Dec 2012	Newspoll	42%	31%	8%	†	4%*	15%	56%	44%
12 Oct 2012	ReachTEL[70]	44.6%	30.5%	7.5%	†	11%	6.4%	—	—
14 Sept 2012	ReachTEL[71]	44.7%	34.7%	7%	†	9.4%	4.1%	—	—
17 Aug 2012	ReachTEL[72]	44.2%	31.6%	9.2%	†	9.6%	5.4%	—	—
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012	Roy Morgan[73]	51%	27.5%	7.5%	†	5%	9%	59%	41%
2 Jul 2012	ReachTEL[71][74]	56.5%	21.8%	9.4%	†	7.4%	4.8%	—	—
Jul–Sep 2012	Newspoll	48%	30%	9%	†	1%*	12%	60%	40%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012	Roy Morgan[75]	54.5%	28%	7.5%	†	3.5%	6.5%	62%	38%
28 March 2012 Annastacia Palaszczuk becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
24 Mar 2012 election		49.7%	26.7%	7.5%	†	11.5%	4.6%	62.8%	37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012	Newspoll	50%	28%	6%	†	‡	16%	60.8%	39.2%
20–21 Mar 2012	Roy Morgan[76]	51%	28%	7.5%	†	8.5%	5%	62%	38%
* KAP is not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others". † Palmer United Party announced in April 2013[77] and registered in June 2013,[78] as such, there is no polling data before this point. ‡ KAP part of others prior to election. **On the final Newpoll (29 January 2015), PUP is included with the others total (14%), but a provided footnote shows them to have support of 3% of voters.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Better Premier

Approval ratings

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*

Date	Firm	Better Premier			Newman		Palaszczuk
		Newman	Palaszczuk		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
27–29 Jan 2015	Newspoll[49]	43%	42%		35%	58%	38%	40%
16–18 Jan 2015	Roy Morgan[52]	48.5%	51.5%		not asked
6–8 Jan 2015	Newspoll[54]	42%	38%		41%	51%	38%	38%
21–24 Nov 2014	Roy Morgan[56]	47.5%	52.5%		not asked
Oct–Dec 2014	Newspoll	44%	35%		38%	51%	38%	34%
24–27 Oct 2014	Roy Morgan[57]	47.5%	52.5%		not asked
26–29 Sept 2014	Roy Morgan[58]	50%	50%		not asked
Jul–Sep 2014	Newspoll	41%	35%		35%	54%	36%	36%
Apr–Jun 2014	Newspoll	39%	35%		33%	57%	35%	37%
Jan–Mar 2014	Newspoll	41%	35%		36%	54%	38%	30%
Oct–Dec 2013	Newspoll	45%	32%		40%	48%	36%	31%
Apr–Jun 2013	Newspoll	49%	26%		41%	46%	34%	33%
Jan–Mar 2013	Newspoll	53%	21%		43%	45%	33%	33%
Oct–Dec 2012	Newspoll	45%	29%		38%	48%	34%	30%
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012	Roy Morgan[73]	62.5%	20.5%		51%	36%	33%	28.5%
Jul–Sep 2012	Newspoll	55%	21%		47%	38%	29%	30%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012	Roy Morgan[75]	67.5%	16%		53%	26.5%	26.5%	21%
28 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces Bligh		Newman	Bligh		Newman		Bligh
24 Mar 2012 election		–	–		–	–	–	–
20–22 Mar 2012	Newspoll	51%	36%		47%	40%	36%	58%
20–21 Mar 2012	Roy Morgan[76]	48%	35%		53%	34.5%	38.5%	53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2015 Queensland state election

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

See also

• Queensland portal
• Politics portal

• Candidates of the 2015 Queensland state election
• Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2015–2018
• Politics of Queensland