The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose electors to the Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
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The incumbent president, Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee, facing little opposition.[2][3] However, Biden's performance in the June 2024 presidential debate intensified concerns about his age and health, and led to calls within his party for him to leave the race.[4] Although initially adamant he would remain in the race, Biden withdrew on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the party's nominee on August 5. Harris selected Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. Biden's withdrawal makes him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to run for re-election, and the first to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.[5] Harris is the first nominee who did not participate in the primaries since Vice President Hubert Humphrey, also in 1968.[6]
Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in 2020.[7] Other than Trump, only former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley managed to gather significant support during the Republican primaries. Trump was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention along with his running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance. Trump's campaign has been criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for invoking violent rhetoric and authoritarian statements.[8][9][10] Trump has made many false and misleading statements,[11][12][13] promoted conspiracy theories,[14][15] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, which prompted the January 6 Capitol attack.[16] The Republican Party has made efforts to disrupt the 2024 presidential election as part of a larger election denial movement. In 2023 and 2024, Trump was found liable and guilty in civil and criminal proceedings, respectively, for sexual abuse, defamation, financial fraud, and falsifying business records, becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.[17] Trump survived an attempted assassination on July 13.[18]
The presidential election will take place at the same time as elections for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislatures. Key swing states for the presidential election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[19] Leading campaign issues are abortion,[20][21][22] border security and immigration,[23][24] climate change,[25][26] democracy,[27][28] the economy,[29] education,[30] foreign policy,[31] healthcare,[32] and LGBTQ rights.[33] The winners are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States.
Background
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Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or (in this election) a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[34]
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[35]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny. Officials in many states have sought additional funding to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. Numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[36][37]
Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[38] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[39]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[40] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[41] and the Secretary of State of Maine[42] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[43][42] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[44]
Election interference
Donald Trump's false claims of interference
Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of August 2024[update].[46][47] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, may attempt to impede the voting process, or refuse to certify the 2024 results.[48] The New York Times has reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system", by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump loses.[49] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants, in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.[50][51][52]
The claims have been made as part of larger Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election and election denial movement.[53] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has predicted without evidence that the 2024 election would be rigged against him. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[45] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[54]
Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[55][56] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[lower-alpha 1] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[63] his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[64][65] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election,[66] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[67] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[68][69][70][71] Trump's political operation said that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.[72]
Interference by foreign nations
Before the election, current and former U.S. officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[73] China, Russia, and Iran have since all been identified as mounting influence operations and attempts to interfere with the 2024 election. US intelligence officials have described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy.[74]
China
China has been identified as interfering with the 2024 election through propaganda and disinformation campaigns linked to its Spamouflage operation. US intelligence agencies described the effort as not targeting any particular candidate, but focusing on issues important to Beijing such as Taiwan, and "undermining confidence in elections, voting, and the U.S. in general."[74] As early as April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[75]
Russia
According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[76][77] On September 4, 2024, the United States publicly accused Russia of interfering in the 2024 election and announced several steps to combat Russian influence including sanctions, indictments, and seizing of web domains used to spread propaganda and disinformation. American intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia prefers Trump to win the election, viewing him as more critical of U.S. support for Ukraine.[78]
Iran
Iran has been identified as interfering with the 2024 presidential election through front companies connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps through hacking attempts against the Trump, Biden, and Harris campaigns starting as early as May 2024.[79] Iran has launched propaganda and disinformation campaigns through fake news websites and accounts on social media to tip the election against former president Trump, although it has also targeted both Biden and Harris. The New York Times stated the efforts were an attempt at "sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."[80][79][81]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump has been found liable in civil proceedings for both sexual abuse and defamation in 2023 and defamation in 2024, while also being criminally convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, expected to be an issue during the campaign. He has four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and there are other lawsuits against Trump.[82] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[83] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[84][45]
Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[85]
In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found liable by an anonymous jury[86] for sexual abuse[87] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[88][89][90] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[91]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[92] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[91] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[93] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[94]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[95][96]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[97][98][99] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[100] and then to November 26,[101] and the trial dates in Trump's other cases will likely be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[102][103]
Age and health concerns
Joe Biden
Former Republican president Donald Trump and mass media raised concerns about President Biden's age, including his cognitive state, during and after the 2020 United States presidential election. These concerns increased after a poor performance by Biden during a debate against Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which led a number of commentators and some Democratic lawmakers to call for Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.[104] He later withdrew his candidacy while stating that he would continue serving as president until the conclusion of his term.[105]
According to a February 2024 poll, Biden's age and health were major or moderate concerns for 86% of voters generally,[106] up from 76% earlier in 2020.[107] According to another 2024 poll, most of those who voted for Biden in 2020 said they believed he was too old to be an effective president; The New York Times noted that these concerns "cut across generations, gender, race and education".[108]
Donald Trump
According to polling released in July and August, a majority of voters polled after the first debate think Trump is too old to serve a second term (51%,[109] 57%,[110] and 60%[111]), with 80% unsure he would be able to finish out a second term.[109] During and after Trump's presidency, comments on his age, weight, lifestyle and history of heart disease have raised questions about his physical health.[112] In addition, numerous public figures, media sources, and mental health professionals have speculated that Trump may have some form of dementia, which runs in his family.[112] Experts for the science publication STAT who analyzed changes in Trump's speeches between 2015 and 2024 noted shorter sentences, more tangents, more repetition and more confusion of words and phrases. The doctors suggested it could just be due to changes in mood or it could indicate the beginning of Alzheimer's.[113] The sharp rise in all-or-nothing thinking is also linked to cognitive decline.[113] Trump has also been criticized for his lack of transparency around his medical records and health.[114][112]
The New York Times and Los Angeles Times[115] editorial boards also declared Trump unfit to lead, pointing to what former Trump officials "have described as his systematic dishonesty, corruption, cruelty and incompetence."[116][117] Donald Trump has also been criticized for his hiring decisions,[118][119] and noted for his unusual criminal record.[120]
Political violence
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[121][122] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[123][124] Trump has increasingly embraced extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.[15][14] Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies.[132] Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".[133]
Assassination attempt
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On July 13, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.[18] Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania,[134][135] who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building located approximately 400 feet (120 meters) from the stage; the shots killed audience member Corey Comperatore and critically injured two other audience members.[134] Seconds later Crooks was shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.[136] The motive and cause of the assassination attempt are still under investigation by authorities.[137]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[138][139] If the state results of 2020 were to stay the same in 2024, which has never occurred before, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 and Trump's 232, meaning Democrats lost a net 3 electoral votes to reapportionment. This apportionment will remain through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 census.[140]
Swing states
Most states are not competitive because demographics keep them solidly behind a party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means a limited number of swing states—competitive states that "swing" between the parties—are vital to winning the presidency. These are the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; and the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.[19]
Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, while Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia have moved towards the Democrats.[141][142][143] The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, has had relatively high support among Black voters;[144][145] voters who have attended college[146] or who live in urban areas.[147] Some working class voters since the 1970s, have drifted towards Republican candidates as Democrats moved to the left on cultural issues.[148] The traditional Republican coalition in "red states" is composed mainly of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[149] Republicans had performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them recently because of the rise of the Make America Great Again movement.[150] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there.[151]
Campaign issues
Campaign themes
Harris campaign
Harris has framed her campaign as "a choice between freedom and chaos" and based it around the ideals of "freedom" and "the future".[152][153] The Harris campaign has sought to highlight her experience as an attorney general and a prosecutor to "prosecute the case" against Trump by pointing out his 34 felony convictions and the impacts of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.[154][155] Harris is running as a moderate Democrat who has moved towards the center on several policy positions since her 2019 primary run, embracing many of Biden's domestic policy stances.[156] Harris has focused her economic proposals on the cost of groceries, housing and healthcare.[157] She also has centered the middle class, and small businesses.[158] Harris' campaign has been noted for having an optimistic and joyful tone.[159][160] Harris has won over voters with an optimistic message and responded to demands for more detailed policies by adding a policy page to the campaign website on September 8 on a range of topics, from labor unions to cost-of-living issues to health care.[161][162]
Trump campaign
A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid is "retribution".[163][164] Trump announced the theme during his March 2023 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), stating "In 2016, I declared, 'I am your voice.' Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution." Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle," and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals,[165] though he has also stated his retribution "will be success".[166] Trump is heavily running on immigration as a central campaign focus. The Washington Post described Trump's campaign as focusing on "dark and apocalyptic" rhetoric about the state of the country and the future if he does not win.[167] The Associated Press states that "Trump's rallies take on the symbols, rhetoric and agenda of Christian nationalism."[168] During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has made numerous false and misleading statements.[11][12][13] The large number of lies and false statements have been attributed to Trump's rhetorical style described as using the big lie and firehose of falsehood propaganda technique.[169][170] Trump has also made many personal attacks against Harris,[171] several of which are sexual in nature,[172] viewed as racist and misogynistic,[173][174][175] and considered a continued breaking of norms regarding political speech.[172]
Abortion
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Abortion access is a key topic during the campaign.[176][23] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[177] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[178] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the southern United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[177]
Abortion will be on the ballot in up to ten states in 2024, including the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.[179] Some pundits have argued abortion rights referenda could help Harris in November.[180][181][182]
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[183] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[184] Since becoming the presumptive nominee, Kamala Harris has indicated her support for passing legislation which would restore the federal abortion right protections previously guaranteed by Roe.[185][186][187] She argued Trump would let his anti-abortion allies implement Project 2025 proposals to restrict abortion and contraception throughout the US.[188]
Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[189][190] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[191] In his home state of Florida, Trump said that he would vote No on Amendment 4, an abortion rights referendum, preserving the six-week ban.[192] The comment came after he initially criticized the six-week ban for being "too short."[193]
Border security and immigration
Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the election.[194][195] Polling has shown that most Americans want to reduce immigration[196] and that a substantial minority of white Republicans are concerned about white demographic decline.[197] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering through the border with Mexico occurred.[198] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior officials attributed to increased enforcement between the US and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[199] By July 2024, border arrests dropped 33% to a 46-month low as a result of Biden's executive action after it previously dropped by 55% in June, bringing it to its lowest level since September 2020.[200]
Harris has promised to fight for "strong border security" coupled with an earned pathway to citizenship. Harris has highlighted her work in combating transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers while attorney general.[201] In 2023, as vice president, Harris announced pledges of US$950 million from private companies into Central American communities to address the causes of mass migration, such as poverty.[187] Harris states she believes the immigration system is "broken" and needs to be fixed, and she says most Americans believe this.[187] Harris supports increasing the number of Border Patrol agents and accuses Trump as being unserious on border security.[202] While vice president, Harris supported a bipartisan bill which would have funded additional border agents and closed the border if too crowded, the bill was rejected by Trump. Trump called on House and Senate Republicans to kill the bill arguing it would hurt his and Republican's reelection campaigns and deny them the ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[203][204][205][206][207][208] Harris has criticized Trump for his opposition to the bill on the campaign trail,[201] and has promised to sign the bill into law as president.[209]
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Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[210] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[211] The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[210] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[191] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by data.[212]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[210] and drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[213][214][215] Since fall 2023,[216] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[217][218][216][128] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[125][213][127][128][129][130]
Climate change
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[25][26] In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency.[219] America also dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[220]
Harris is an advocate for environmental justice to address the impact of climate change on lower-income areas and people of color. Under Biden, she supported his climate legislation.[187] Harris helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act,[221] the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history[222] putting the US on track to meet emissions reduction targets by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030.[223] Harris's campaign has stated that she does not support a ban on fracking.[224][225][156]
Trump has ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change[226][227][228] and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill."[229] Trump says he will increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[230] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed once again leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[230][231] Trump has stated his intention to roll back parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.[232]
Democracy
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[233]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[234][235][236] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with Christian nationalist autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[237] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[238] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[84][45] Trump has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.[16]
Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[8][9][10] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[239] Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[240] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an "obstacle to his agenda" within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[241] Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the Justice Department investigate and arrest his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[242][243][244] Trump has previously tried to prosecute his political rivals and would have fewer checks on his power in a second term.[245] Project 2025 is a proposed plan by the Heritage Foundation to centralize power into the executive branch for conservative policies to be enacted without input from the judicial branch, legislative branch or local government. The plan received some support from the Republican Party. The document was written in part by former members of the Trump administration such as Russell Vought, and John McEntee[246] while Donald Trump stated he is unfamiliar with parts of the plan.[247][248][249]
Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[125][213][250][128][251][252] Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots."[253][254][255] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[256]
Harris was tasked by Biden with protecting democracy through voting rights legislation through her work on the For the People Act. Harris has supported efforts to defend election workers and counter Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election.[187] Harris says she supports efforts to improve racial justice. Harris previously supported the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.[187] Harris has supported demilitarizing police departments, and has pushed back against calls to defund the police.[225] Harris has stated her support to pass the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Rights Voting Rights Advancement Act if elected.[257]
Economic issues
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, America went through a surge in inflation that raised prices on many goods.[258][259][260] The New York Times reports that both candidates "embraced a vision of a powerful federal government, using its muscle to intervene in markets in pursuit of a stronger and more prosperous economy."[261]
Harris is running on a pro-union platform.[262] She has promoted the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, funding for small business, and previously supported an act as senator to provide a $6,000 tax credit for middle and low-income families.[187] Harris has promised to address price gouging, bring down costs, ban hidden fees and late charges from financial institutions, limit "unfair" rent increases and cap prescription drug costs which she has said would "lower costs and save many middle-class families thousands of dollars a year".[263]
The New York Times described Harris' economic policy as embracing "the idea that the federal government must act aggressively to foster competition and correct distortions in private markets." Harris has proposed raising taxes on corporations and high-earners to fund services for the lower and middle classes and reduce the deficit.[261] Harris has stated she supports increasing the top tier capital gains tax rate to 28%, up from 20% and lower than Biden's proposed 39.6%. Harris has stated her support for a Billionaire Minimum Income Tax, increasing the tax on stock buybacks to 4%, and a ten-fold tax reduction for small business ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 in relief.[264] Harris also supports efforts to create a tax on unrealized gains for those with more than a $100 million in net worth if they do not pay a minimum 25% tax rate on their income inclusive of unrealized gains so long as 80% of said wealth is in tradeable assets. The plan would impact a small percentage of America's wealthy, and Axios reported most tech founders and investors would be spared.[265] Harris has also announced support for restoring the corporate tax rate to 28% among several other tax proposals to raise taxes and close loopholes for corporations and the wealthy that would bring in $5 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years.[266] Harris has also proposed tax breaks to companies delivering economic benefit, such as manufacturing technologies to fight global warming and building affordable housing. Harris has proposed a ban on corporate price gouging to "help the food industry become more competitive."[261] Harris has also expressed support for student debt relief,[267] and Harris says she supports raising the minimum wage.[268]
Harris says she will increase home construction to reduce housing costs, arguing that it negatively impacts the economy and hurts working-class families. Harris has proposed directing $40 billion to construction companies to build starter homes. Harris has promised to send $25,000 in down-payment assistance to every first time home buyer.[261] Harris says she will urge Congress to enforce fair housing laws and pass a bill to bar property owners from using services that "coordinate" rents through the passage of the Preventing the Algorithmic Facilitation of Rental Housing Cartels Act, and also call on Congress to pass the Stop Predatory Investing Act by removing tax benefits to Wall Street firms that buy up large numbers of single-family homes.[269][270]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[271] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation,[272] and that these policies coupled with a crackdown in illegal immigration and reduction in inflation will help the middle class.[267] Trump says he will reduce regulation of business through the creation of an efficiency commission led by Elon Musk,[273] along with reducing environmental regulation. Trump has said deporting millions of immigrants will bring housing prices down.[261] Trump endorsed a "no tax on tips" policy that has seen bipartisan support. And his competitor, Kamala Harris, has echoed support for the proposal.[268]
Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[274] of 10% to 20% on all imports,[275][276] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[230] Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[275] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[230] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[277] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[278] neomercantilist or autarkist.[274][279] Increasing inflation has become a more common critique of Trump's economic plans.[280][281][282][283] In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.[284][285][286] Moody's[287] and most economists surveyed by the WSJ in July 2024 predict that inflation would be worse under Trump than Biden, a result due in part to tariffs, a crack down on illegal immigration, and larger deficits.[288]
Education
Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[230][289] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[290] At the American Federation of Teachers national convention, Harris attacked recent efforts to ban books.[291] She has also previously called for raising teacher's wages.[292]
Foreign policy
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel–Hamas war are expected issues in the election.[293] Harris has signaled to generally follow Biden's foreign policy on NATO and Ukraine, supporting both in the aftermath of the Russian invasion.[187][294] A supporter of the two-state solution,[187][295] Harris is seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden, who has described himself as a Zionist and has a long history with Israeli leaders.[294] Regarding the Israel–Hamas war, analysts expect Harris to continue Biden's approach.[296] Following Hamas's attack on Israel in 2023, Harris strongly supported Israel's offensive,[297][296] stating that "the threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel must be eliminated".[187] However, she has since criticized Israel's approach and the Gaza humanitarian crisis.[294] In March 2024, Harris opposed Israel's invasion of Rafah,[187] called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza,[296][187] and stated that the situation in Gaza is a "humanitarian catastrophe".[187] Harris has advocated for "de-risking" from Beijing, a policy that encourages reducing Western economic dependence on China.[298] Harris is expected to continue deepening American alliances in Asia and the Pacific with the intention of curbing China's rising power both economically and militarily.[299]
Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[300][301] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission, shifting the nation's defense burdens from Europe towards Asia.[230] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[302] Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected.[303] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[304] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[300] Trump has voiced strong support for Israel in the Israel–Hamas war, and has stated that they must "finish the problem".[305] Trump has promised a tougher stance against China than Biden,[306] but has also questioned whether America should defend Taiwan.[307] Trump has suggested withdrawing troops from South Korea if it does not pay more to support U.S. troops there.[191] Trump has previously promised he would bar Gaza residents from entering the United States through an extended travel ban.[308] Trump has stated he would shut down pro-Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years".[309] At times, however, he has also been critical of Israel's war in Gaza. In April 2024, Trump said Israel should "get it over with ... get back to peace and stop killing people."[310] In July 2024, Trump said that Israel should end the war in Gaza as soon as possible.[311]
Israel–Hamas war views
Polling has indicated that the majority of voters support a ceasefire and American mediation in the Israel-Hamas war.[312] Republicans also generally support arms to Israel, while Democrats are divided on the issue.[313][314] In the Democratic primaries, the Uncommitted National Movement led a protest campaign against Biden over the war, calling for a ceasefire and arms embargo on Israel. It received over 700,000 votes and 36 delegates.[315]
Harris has been seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians during the war, and her and her campaign have interacted with Arab-American and Uncommitted leaders on multiple occasions.[316][317] However, Harris has refused to halt any weapons shipments to Israel or shift policy from Biden, saying Israel has a right to defend itself.[318][319] Trump also supports Israel's campaign and has said it "has to have a victory", though has said it needs to "get it over with". Trump has taken a more hardline stance on pro-Palestinian protests on university campuses, pledging to deport non-citizen protestors and "set that movement back 25 or 30 years".[320]
Healthcare issues
The issue of healthcare, drug policy, and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[321][322]
Harris has supported efforts to strengthen coverage under the Affordable Care Act,[225] including setting caps on seniors' out-of-pocket prescription drug prices at $2,000 and limiting the cost of insulin for those on Medicare to $35 enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.[221] Harris has been a proponent of White House efforts to ban medical debt from credit reports.[267] Harris has stated she no longer supports a single-payer healthcare system.[225] Harris has supported the expanded child tax credit enacted in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 that reduced child poverty by 20%.[221] Harris has expressed support for making child care and elder care more affordable and enacting paid family leave.[267] On August 16, 2024, Kamala Harris announced the proposal of a $6,000 child tax credit, expanding her populist economic agenda. Other policies including expanding a cap on prescription drug costs and permanently reinstating the expanded child tax credit.[323]
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[32] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[324][325] On the issue of subsidized care, Harris has stated she will "maintain and grow" the Affordable Care Act.[326][327]
LGBT rights
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In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that Democrats say restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[328][329]
Harris is a strong supporter of LGBT people's rights.[330] She has denounced legislative attacks on transgender rights in states across the country.[331][332]
Trump has promised a rollback on Democratic-supported policies surrounding transgender individuals.[333] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[334] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[335] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.[333]
Democratic Party
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden officially announced his bid for re-election, confirming that Vice President Kamala Harris would remain his running mate.[336][337] Following this announcement, Republicans increased their focus on Harris, intensifying criticism against her.[338] During late 2021, amid Biden's declining approval ratings, speculation arose regarding whether he would seek re-election.[339] Public figures, including former Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and Joe Cunningham, urged Biden not to run.[340][341][342]
Concerns about Biden's age were prominent, given that he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78, which would make him 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of a potential second term.[343] An April 2023 poll indicated that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, believed Biden should not seek a second term, with nearly half citing his age as the reason. Biden's approval rating stood at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving, according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.[344] Speculation also arose that Biden might face a primary challenge from the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[345][346] However, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed Biden's chances of securing the party's nomination had increased.[347]
Author Marianne Williamson was the first to challenge Biden by announcing her candidacy in February 2023.[348] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also entered the race but later shifted his campaign to an independent run on October 9, 2023.[349] Representative Dean Phillips joined the race on October 26, 2023.[350] Williamson initially withdrew from the race in February 2024 but later resumed her campaign, only to end it again on June 11, 2024.[351][352][353]
Jason Palmer, who surprised many by winning the American Samoa caucuses, became the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980. However, he suspended his campaign on May 15, 2024.[354] On March 12, 2024, Biden secured a majority of delegates, becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.[355]
Despite securing the nomination, Biden faced significant opposition from “uncommitted” voters and the Uncommitted National Movement, who collectively garnered more votes than several major contenders in the 2020 Democratic primaries and won 36 delegates.[356] Following a widely panned debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27, 2024, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, endorsing Kamala Harris as his successor.[357] Harris quickly announced her campaign and secured enough delegate endorsements by July 22, becoming the presumptive nominee.[358]
Following Biden's withdrawal, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, and Andy Beshear emerged as lead candidates in the veepstakes.[359] Shapiro received pushback from pro-Palestine activists for comments on college protesters[360] and for claiming to volunteer for the IDF,[361] while Kelly was criticized by "labor groups."[362]
The Democratic Party conducted a virtual roll call vote on August 2, where Harris secured the majority of delegate votes and became the official nominee on August 5.[363] She selected Walz as her running mate the following day.[364] If successful, Harris would make history as the first female and first Asian American president of the United States.[365] Walz would be the first vice president to have served in the war on terror.[366]
Democratic nominees
 | |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Tim Walz |
| for President | for Vice President |
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.jpg) |
| 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present) |
41st Governor of Minnesota (2019–present) |
Republican Party
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[367] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[368][369] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.[370] Trump had announced in March 2022 that his former vice president Mike Pence would not be his running mate.[371] In civil proceedings, Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in 2023, defamation in 2024, and financial fraud in 2024, becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.[17]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[372] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents that contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[373][374]
Trump faced opposition in the primaries, easily defeating Nikki Haley.[375]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[376][377][378] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback," DeSantis said. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[379] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[380] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[381]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[382][383] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[384] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign.[385]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[386]
Trump was lightly injured in an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024.[387] This was the first time a president or major party presidential candidate was injured in an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan in 1981.
On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator JD Vance of Ohio would be his running mate.[387] If elected, he would be the first marine and first Iraq War veteran to serve as vice president.[388]
On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee. This was the third consecutive election in which he was the Republican nominee.[389]
Republican nominees
 | |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | JD Vance |
| for President | for Vice President |
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.jpg) |
| 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) |
U.S. Senator from Ohio (2023–present) |
Third-party and independent candidates
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs, including Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy dropped out of the race in August 2024, though he remains on the ballot in some states. Centrist political organization No Labels abandoned its efforts in April 2024.[390] Some existing third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation, and the Green Party have announced presidential nominees.
With majority ballot access
Libertarian Party
Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[391] As of May 2024[update], the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.[392]
 | |
|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | Mike ter Maat |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
![Thumb](#/media/File:Mike_Ter_Maat_on_the_"LibertyDad"_Podcast.jpg) |
| Sales account executive from Georgia |
Economist from Virginia |
Green Party
Stein was also the party's candidate in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. On August 16, Stein selected academic Butch Ware as her running mate.[393]
 | |
|---|---|
| Jill Stein | Butch Ware |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
|
| Physician from Massachusetts |
Academic from California |
With partial ballot access
These third-party candidates have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes needed to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
- American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member[394]
- Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, activist and nominee for president in 2020[395]
- Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[396]
- Independent American Party and Constitution Party offshoots: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant[397]
- Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[398]
- Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[399][400]
- Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[401]
- Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[402]
Independent candidates
The following notable individuals are running independently for president.
- Cornel West, academic, left-leaning and anti-war activist and public intellectual, previously both, People's Party and Green Party primaries candidate[403][404] launching an independent campaign[405][406]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist, previously Democratic primaries candidate launching an independent campaign (endorsed Trump)[407]
Timeline
Opinion polling and forecasts
Opinion polling aggregation
Harris and Trump
_polling_(2024_polls_only).svg)
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | September 3 – September 18, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 49.3% | 47.4% | 3.3% | Harris +1.9% |
| Race to the WH | through September 21, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 49.8% | 46.2% | 4.0% | Harris +3.6% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through September 20, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 50.1% | 46.5% | 3.4% | Harris +3.6% |
| 270toWin | through September 20, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 48.6% | 45.8% | 5.6% | Harris +2.8% |
| FiveThirtyEight | through September 19, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 48.3% | 45.6% | 6.1% | Harris +2.7% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 19, 2024 | September 21, 2024 | 49.0% | 46.3% | 4.7% | Harris +2.7% |
| Average | 49.18% | 46.3% | 4.52% | Harris +2.88% | ||
Harris vs. Trump vs. Kennedy Jr. vs. Stein vs. West vs. Oliver
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[lower-alpha 3] Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through September 20, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 47.7% | 44.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | — | 3.0% | Harris +2.6% |
| RealClearPolitics | September 3 – September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 48.1% | 46.0% | — | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.9% | Harris +2.1% |
| 270toWin | through September 20, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 46.8% | 45.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 5.1% | Harris +1.7% |
| Average | 47.53% | 45.27% | 2.45% | 0.97% | 0.67% | 0.85% | 2.26% | Harris +2.26% | ||
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and RealClearPolitics are omitted for brevity.[lower-alpha 4]
| State | EVs | PVI[410] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[411] |
IE August 29, 2024[412] |
Cook August 27, 2024[413] |
CNalysis September 14, 2024[414] |
Sabato August 20, 2024[415] |
CNN August 18, 2024[416] |
RCP September 18, 2024[417] |
DDHQ September 20, 2024[418] |
538 September 18, 2024[408] |
Economist September 19, 2024[409] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Illinois | 19 | D+7 | 57.5% D | 16.99% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Indiana | 11 | R+11 | 57.0% R | 16.07% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Kansas | 6 | R+10 | 56.4% R | 14.63% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Maine[lower-alpha 5] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| ME–01[lower-alpha 5] | 1 | D+9 | 60.1% D | 23.09% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D |
| ME–02[lower-alpha 5] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Mississippi | 6 | R+11 | 57.6% R | 16.55% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Missouri | 10 | R+10 | 56.8% R | 15.39% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Montana | 4 | R+11 | 56.9% R | 16.37% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| NE–01[lower-alpha 5] | 1 | R+9 | 56.0% R[lower-alpha 6] | 14.92% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| NE–02[lower-alpha 5] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[lower-alpha 7] | 6.50% | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| New Jersey | 14 | D+6 | 57.3% D | 15.94% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Oregon | 8 | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| South Carolina | 9 | R+8 | 55.1% R | 11.68% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | D – 241 R – 219 78 tossups | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | D – 225 R – 219 94 tossups | D – 225 R – 219 94 tossups | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | D – 251 R – 219 68 tossups | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | ||||
Debates
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[419] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.[420] The Harris camp suggested that another debate could be held in October after the September 10 debate with Trump.[421] On September 12, Trump announced that there would be no third presidential debate.[422]
June 27 presidential debate: Biden vs. Trump
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching.[423] Media outlets characterized Joe Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[424][425][426]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[427] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[428] In response, Biden initially stated that he would not be dropping out, and prominent Democratic politicians, including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[429][430][431] The debate performance led to Biden ultimately withdrawing his bid for re-election on July 21.
September 10 presidential debate: Harris vs. Trump
The second presidential debate was held on Tuesday, September 10 by ABC News.[432] Donald Trump had proposed to debate on FOX News instead of the ABC debate,[433] but later accepted the debate on ABC.[434] The debate was held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and lasted for about 100 minutes.[435] ABC's debate topics included abortion, the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. There were questions that neither participants answered.[436] Most voters thought Kamala Harris won the debate.[437] Republicans attributed Trump's poor debate performance to their perception of unfair treatment by ABC, because the moderators fact-checked him but not Harris.[438][439]
October 1 vice presidential debate: Vance vs. Walz
On August 15, 2024, vice presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz agreed to a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1.[440]
See also
Notes
- The FiveThirtyEight forecast[408] and Economist[409] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
- Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
References
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